McAdam: Ghosts of '78 don't apply to this year's Red Sox

In a memorable scene from the movie "Marathon Man", Laurence Olivier famously asks Dustin Hoffman: "Is it safe?''

Now that the Red Sox' four-game series with the rival Yankees has concluded, that's what many Red Sox fans are asking about the team's position atop the American League East.

By virtue of Sunday's stirring comeback, which completed a four-game sweep, the Sox lead grew to 9.5 games, eight in the loss column. The Red Sox have 49 games remaining; the Yankees, by virtue of some rainouts earlier in the season, have 52 remaining.

Six head-to-head games remain between the teams in the final two weeks of the season -- a three-game set at Yankee Stadium Sept. 18-20 and a three-game series at Fenway to finish the season -- so there's time, in theory, for the Yankees to make up some ground and ensure that those final two series are meaningful.

But after the four-game sweep this past weekend, the math gets fuzzier for the Yankees.

If the Red Sox merely play a game over .500 for the remainder of the schedule -- and, outside of a 26-game stretch from April 21 to May 18, the Red Sox have played well above the break-even mark for the vast majority of the season -- they'll go 25-24 and finish with a record of 104-58.

Such a record would require the Yankees to go 37-15 in their final 52 games, a winning percentage of .712 that would far surpass the rate at which the Yankees have won so far in compiling MLB's third-best record. They would have to accomplish that without the services of top slugger Aaron Judge (likely sidelined until September) and catcher Gary Sanchez (return timetable unknown) and with a rotation that is currently underperforming.

Meanwhile, if the Red Sox merely go 29-20 the rest of the way -- for a winning percentage of .592, or about 100 points lower than their current winning percentage of .699 -- the Yankees would have to play at a rate of .788 (41-11) for the remainder of the season to overtake them.

To be sure, the Red Sox have some challenges in the final eight weeks. Even before the six games left with the Yankees in final two weeks, the Red Sox still must host Houston for three games and play two series (seven games) with Cleveland, two more with Philadelphia and three in Atlanta, meaning 15 games remain against teams either currently in first or no more than a game and half out of first.

But the Sox can also fatten up with seven more games against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, six against the Toronto Blue Jays, four with the Chicago White Sox, three with the New York Mets and two with the Miami Marlins.

Even the Tampa Bay Rays, who have been more competitive than anticipated and own a .500 record, have been little challenge for the Red Sox this season, with the Sox having won nine of the first 13 meetings. Six games remain between the clubs.

Much of the anxiety for Red Sox fans has its roots in the 1978 pennant race, which the Sox led by 14 games in July and nine games as late as August 13, only to fall apart in the final month, resulting in a one-game playoff game, won by the Yankees.

For some, the very memory of that collapse results in cold sweats and nightmares, and not even the Red Sox triumph in 2004 — to say nothing of two World Series wins since -- can erase that paranoia.

But, really, a 40-year-old fold has little relevance today. The Red Sox have survived their own injuries. Two of their three best starters currently reside on the disabled list, along with half of the starting infield, and they haven't been slowed.

To the contrary, thanks to consistently excellent starting pitching, the Red Sox are getting stronger -- not weaker -- in the second half. They've gone 11-4 since the All-Star break.

There's a long way to go before the Red Sox can begin wondering about their magic number to clinch a playoff spot or the division title.

But to the question asked at the beginning -- Is it safe? -- the math, if not the history, suggests: Yes.