There are just eight days remaining in the NBA regular season and the Eastern Conference playoff picture remains a complete mess. While the third seed is turning into a two-horse race between the Cavs and Sixers (with the Pacers falling out of it), the more immediate focus for the Celtics is the bottom of the East standings. Currently, the Heat, Wizards and Bucks are all tied up, each with a 42-36 record with just four games remaining in the regular season.
The Celtics still have a puncher’s chance of catching the Raptors for the top seed in the East, if they manage to defeat Toronto up north on Wednesday night. Given their lengthy injury list and a busy closing schedule, it remains likely the C’s will have to settle for the No. 2 spot (assuming they don’t win out). Getting locked into the No. 2 seed begs the question about which team they’ll land as a first-round opponent.
While it looks to be a big roll of the dice, for now, a closer look at the schedule actually indicates the Celtics may have a big say in what team they will face among the Bucks/Wizards/Heat trio. Let’s take a look at a few scenarios on that front and everything else you need to know about the complex playoff picture.
Head-to-head tiebreakers
- Heat over Bucks (3-0)
- Wizards over Bucks (2-2 head-to-head, but Wizards win via conference record)
- Heat over Wizards (2-2 head-to-head, but Heat win divisional record, which would be eventual tiebreaker)
Three way-tiebreaker
- 1. Heat, 2. Wizards, 3. Bucks (Based on head-to-head matchups)
Remaining schedules
Wizards:
@ CLE, vs. ATL, vs. BOS, @ ORL
Heat:
@ ATL, @ NYK, vs. OKC, @ TOR
Bucks:
vs. BKN, @ NYK, vs. ORL, @ PHI
Analysis:
The Bucks have the easiest schedule of the bunch now, but also are on the low rung of the tiebreaker totem pole. They’ll have to beat the Heat and Wizards outright in the standings to avoid the eighth seed, but they’ve got a chance to do so with three tanking teams left to play before a season finale against the Sixers. Philadelphia may or may not be playing for the No. 3 seed at that point (depending on how they fare against the Cavs on Friday night) but a 3-1 finish or better can likely be penciled in for the Bucks for now.
The Heat have it a little bit tougher. After squeaking out a home win against the lowly Hawks on Tuesday night, they get a couple of road affairs against tanking squads (Hawks, Knicks) before closing out with a pair of challenging opponents in Oklahoma City and Toronto. The Thunder will still be playing for their playoff lives in that contest (or at least a higher seed), while the Raptors are fairly certain to have the No. 1 spot wrapped up by game no. 82. Still, Toronto could have some reason to play for the win if they want to see the Heat drop in the standings towards the No. 8 seed and a potential first-round matchup. Rest will likely trump opponent motivation here, though, for Toronto (they should have no trouble with any of bottom three seeds), leaving the Heat in good shape to have the inside track on the No. 6 seed now with their tiebreaker advantages, assuming they can put together three wins down the stretch.
That brings us to the Wizards, who stumbled badly on Tuesday night against a Rockets team that has the No. 1 seed wrapped up out West. They also got crushed by a second-string Bulls team over the weekend and have been playing lackluster basketball for a few weeks now (they've lost 6-of-10). They’ve got the toughest schedule remaining of the bunch, with a date against the surging Cavs on Thursday in Cleveland and a showdown with the Celtics next Tuesday night in DC.
Brad Stevens has never tried to play for or avoid specific playoff matchups in past seasons. He prefers to let the cards fall where they may when it comes to the final standings. However, this is a different ballgame this season for the Celtics. With Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart questionable to play for rest of April, a first-round opponent looms large for Boston. Stevens could end up having a pretty serious say in the playoff bracket based on how he handles the Wizards game next Tuesday night.
If the Wizards fall in Cleveland, a Celtics win on Tuesday over Washington could easily push them down to the eighth seed (assuming the Bucks and Heat take care of business and close out with 3-1 records). Starting to rest some regulars on that night in preparation for the playoffs could strengthen the odds that the Wizards land at No. 7 however, (since they lose to Heat and beat Bucks in any head-to-head tiebreaker). A 3-1 finish for all four squads would land the Wizards in the seventh seed.
The Wizards are clearly the most talented squad of the three teams in play for the No. 7 seed, but they’ve also been struggling while acclimating John Wall back into the lineup after returning from his knee injury. The case can be made in either direction about how tough a matchup the Wizards would be for this Celtics squad (it wouldn’t be a good one).
The Celtics obviously won’t be able to guarantee a win against the Wizards in DC, based on their healthy personnel. However, their playing time decisions will speak volumes on a night the No. 1 seed is expected to be out of reach for them anyway. There will be some additional clarity in the standings by that point (Heat and Wizards will only have one game remaining by Tuesday night) which will allow C’s to make an informed decision about how they want to play it. What they end up doing could speak volumes about the team they do (or don’t) want to see in Round 1.
