Red Sox '18 preview: Rotation and bullpen breakdown with evaluator takes

On paper, the Red Sox have one of the best groups of starters in the game. Even with the devaluing of wins for starters, it's worth noting Chris Sale has the most victories in the American League since 2012 (87), with David Price second (86) and Rick Porcello fourth (80).

But there are questions, too, many of them related to health and performance. Price, for instance, must prove he can stay on the mound the entire season after missing two sizeable chunks last season with forearm/elbow issues. And, frankly, he must demonstrate he can thrive in the Boston environment, which has been a challenge for him in his first two seasons in town.

As for Porcello: is he the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2016, or the guy who led the league in hits and homers allowed last season and saw his ERA jump by exactly a run and a half per game? Even if the answer lies somewhere in the middle, the Sox will be better off than they were a year ago.

The season begins without 40 percent of the expected rotation, as both Eduardo Rodriguez (knee) and Drew Pomeranz (sprained flexor tendon) will start the season on the disabled list. That means Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez will be penciled in the rotation to start the season. The hope is that they will keep the Sox in games for the couple of turns they are called upon. There's confidence Johnson can accomplish that, but less so with Velazquez.

Depth could be an issue over the course of the season, though Johnson and Velazquez can help in this regard if they begin well in the first week. Beyond that, there's Steven Wright (out until late April at least) and not much else.

POSITIONAL PREVIEW: 'I think he's the best hitter in the game'

Chris Sale
By most measures, Sale's first season in Boston was a resounding success. He led the league in both innings pitched and strikeouts and was every bit the face the Sox thought they were acquiring. But as has been his career-long pattern, Sale faded in the final six weeks. This spring, the Sox instituted a new program to have their pitchers ramp up more slowly, with the hope of preserving them later in the season, and, they hope, the postseason. Sale is the poster child here and it's a fact of life that as brilliant as he may be for the first four or so months of the season, his season will be judged by what he does in September and October. That's a tough standard to which to adhere, but it comes with his status.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "We're talking about one of the handful of best, most dominant starters in the game. Like a lot of people, I'll be interested to see how they deal with extra rest, pitch counts and all of that in order to preserve him. And I'll be interested to see how he deals with it, too."



David Price
If spring training is any guide, Price is both feeling better and feeling better about himself. The elbow/forearm issue hasn't arisen and Price has shown good command of all four pitches. He's raved about the spring pitching program and appears poised for a big season. Ultimately, of course, he'll be judged by how well he throws and whether he can maintain his health. Some regard his elbow as a ticking time bomb, but perhaps that can be said about most major league pitchers of a certain vintage.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "I like what I've seen. I don't know what's going on in his head, but his stuff looks sharp and I think he's bought into the new staff and their way of doing things. When he's No. 2 and pitching the way he's capable of, that's a darn good rotation.''

Rick Porcello
If nothing else, Porcello is durable. He's topped 200 innings in three of the last four seasons. But given the size of the Red Sox investment in him, they'd like more for their money than simple an innings-eater. Thanks to some input from former Red Sox pitcher Derek Lowe and some spring tinkering, Porcello believes he's rediscovered his good sinker. He's always going to allow contact, and thus, base hits. The trick this season will be limiting the extra-base hits and big innings that befell him a season ago.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "I'll take him. That (2016 season) may have been a bit of a fluke, but he's still a pretty good No. 3 and he competes like hell."

MCADAM: 5 questions, predictions for Red Sox heading into 2018 season

Note: We did not include some of the pitchers on the opening day roster because they likely won't be with the big club very long. And the pitchers coming back from injury, didn't show enough in the spring to offer insightful commentary.

BULLPEN

Statistically speaking, the Red Sox had the second-best bullpen in baseball last season and this group should be a strength again. Craig Kimbrel is among the two or three best closers in the game, and the Sox will have a solid group of (mostly) power arms to serve as their high-leverage options. Cora has introduced some novel concepts this spring when it comes to bullpen usage, including using Kimbrel in innings other than the ninth, and not settling on one primary set-up man. Endorsing these ideas is one thing -- implementing them is another.



Craig Kimbrel
If he's not the best closer in the game, he's part of a very short list in contention. Kimbrel fell one strikeout shy of striking out at least half of the hitters he faced over the course of a season, something he had previously accomplished one season while with Atlanta. With a 97 mph fastball and a deadly curve, what's not to like? It remains to be seen whether he'll be amenable to working in the seventh or eighth on occasion, but when it comes to dominance in the late innings, few can touch him. Literally.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "I didn't see him this spring (with Kimbrel spending most of March with his daughter back in Boston), but then, I didn't need to. He's the same guy: overpowering fastball and a curve that's almost unhittable.''

Carson Smith
This marks the first time Smith has been healthy at the start of a season in his three years with the Red Sox and the club is intrigued to see what he can accomplish after a normal off-season. Smith relies of a mix of sinker/slider and, if Kimbrel is unavailable, is good enough to handle the ninth.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "He wasn't all the way back last year (coming off Tommy John surgery) and I'm assuming he'll get there this year. He gives them a little different look with his mix and the way he throws across his body, he can be uncomfortable to hit against.''

Joe Kelly
Kelly seems to have finally adapted to the bullpen after being shuttled back and forth to the rotation for much of his career. Now, he needs to show he can be durable. He's gone from a guy who threw a number of breaking pitches to someone who is relying on a fastball/curveball mix, with some changeups mixed in.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "It's a mystery why someone with his kind of velocity (Kelly can regularly get his fastball up to 100 mph) doesn't get more swings-and-misses. Maybe this new pitch mix will help, but sometimes that fastball is pretty straight.''

Matt Barnes
Barnes has lacked consistency over the last two seasons. Two years ago, he pitched poorly at home; last year, he struggled on the road. He needs to demonstrate that he can be trusted in big spots -- at Fenway or away. When Tyler Thornburg joins the big league team -- perhaps the start of May -- Barnes could be bumped back to work the sixth or seventh.
EXPERT'S TAKE: "Like a lot of relievers now, he gets it up there pretty quick. But I'd like to see him with more of a plan out there.