Analysis: Have Red Sox improved enough to beat AL's best teams?

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – Back-to-back 93-win seasons and a pair of American League East titles have gotten the Red Sox little.

In a market where championships – or at the very least, playing for a championship – have become the standard with nothing less deemed acceptable, the Red Sox’ back-to-back, first-round exits have almost brought them ridicule.

It didn’t help, of course, that the 2017 season seemed suffused in controversy, with star players warring with broadcasters, and even themselves.

Getting into the playoffs barely catches fans’ attention. Much more is expected, if not demanded.

By the first week of November, the Red Sox, having already fired their manager, appeared light years from the class of the American League. They had plenty of ground to make up on the Houston Astros, who vanquished them in four games in the ALDS and went on to win the World Series.

They were not in the same class as the Cleveland Indians, who had swept them the previous season. Even the New York Yankees, who finished two games behind the Sox in the regular season standings, appeared to overtake the Sox in the post-season, having survived the one-game wildcard round, dispatched the Indians and forced the Astros to a seven-game ALCS.

Slowly – glacially, it might be said – the Red Sox went to work on closing the margin between themselves and the teams ahead of them in the American League. By March, they had re-signed super utility man Eduardo Nunez, and finally, inexorably landed their big catch: slugger J.D. Martinez.

MCADAM: 5 questions, predictions for Red Sox heading into 2018 season

As the regular season gets underway here Thursday afternoon, we surveyed some executives, scouts and other talent evaluators to ask the essential question when it comes to the 2018 Boston Red Sox:

Have they done enough to close the gap and insert themselves into the conversation among the best teams in the American League?

“I have Houston a big step ahead of them, still,’’ said a rival executive. “I think they’ve closed (the gap) with the Yankees from where it was, pre-J.D. Martinez, anyway. That was pretty important for Boston. And then the Yankees didn’t go out and get that starting pitcher they probably needed. I think it’s pretty close between those two now.

“And I can see them beating Cleveland, if things break their way. Cleveland’s running some risk in certain areas this year. Their division is so weak, that they didn’t have to do much, which might be the worst thing for them. But I still see Houston as separated from the pack.’’

Indeed, the Astros would seem to have few weaknesses. They have power, depth, defense, athleticism, and a bolstered rotation that will have the benefit of a full season from Justin Verlander and, now, Gerrit Cole.

Some believe that, beyond fixing the hole in the middle of their lineup with Martinez and the improved depth brought by Nunez, that the Sox will be better merely because of the regime change. New manager Alex Cora and a coaching staff that’s almost entirely new have imbued the clubhouse with energy and placed an emphasis on collaboration and communication.

Said another executive: “The vibe there last year was so terrible, you have to think that’s going to be a lot better this year.’’

Naturally, intangibles alone aren’t likely to make up the difference between, say, the world champions in Houston and a team which has won exactly one (1) playoff game since its last title in '13.

When one veteran talent evaluator was asked what was missing for the Red Sox, he responded: “The talent of the guys moving into their prime has to all show up in the same year. And then nothing will be missing. If (Xander) Bogaerts takes that step forward that’s clearly within his grasp, that will be big for them. And if (Andrew) Benintendi solidifies himself as an impactful, everyday player and (Mookie) Betts has one of his good years instead of last year when he didn’t do everything... And (David) Price is huge for them – they need for him to be really good. One of either Price or (Rick) Porcello has to have one of those top-of-the-rotation seasons, so it’s not all on (Chris) Sale.’’

Red Sox ’18 preview: Positional player breakdown with evaluator takes

Among people in the game, there exists little doubt that the Red Sox are a playoff-caliber team – even if some believe they’ll have to be content with a wild card spot while the Yankees unseat them as division champions.

The regular season is long and demanding, and despite the fan apathy toward qualifying for the postseason, just surviving the grind of the six-month slog is an accomplishment.

But as the franchise has discovered, even winning a competitive division like the AL East the last two seasons hardly guarantees anything in October. For that matter, talent-laden teams like the Washington Nationals can’t seem to get out of the first round.

So, more than six months out from the postseason, it’s worth asking: do the Red Sox currently have what it takes to be a successful playoff team? Or is there some fundamental flaw that keeps dooming them to quick post-season exits.

Oakland A’s president of baseball operations Billy Beane is fond of saying that postseason results are largely random, turning on a small detail here or there, and, yes, luck.

‘’It’s not purely random – it can’t be,’’ counters a veteran front office man. “But a break here or there, a little bit different timing, better health and some things could turn out differently for (the Sox last two years). It’s hard to criticize a team that’s won 90-plus games and a pretty good division two years in a row.’’

Red Sox ’18 preview: Rotation and bullpen breakdown with evaluator takes

That said, the little things that have hampered the Sox and led to their downfall in the playoffs need to change. It would help if they got off to a better start, so they don’t have to win games in the final week simply to qualify – though such a scenario is difficult to imagine, frankly, in sharing a division with the powerhouse Yankees.

Others solicited maintained the Sox have two key ingredients for October success: multiple dominant relievers – in the modern game, power relievers are often to shoulder a disproportionate share of post-season innings – and a lineup capable of hitting quality pitching.

Ultimately, regardless of what sort of regular season they enjoy, the Red Sox will be judged by their ability to knock off the teams that have themselves sent the Sox home early in each of the last two autumns.

That might be a long way to go for an answer, but the Sox seemingly have, if nothing else, improved their chances by their off-season additions.