Over the weekend we learned the Patriots paid Lawrence Guy a $500,000 signing bonus after he just missed earning a playing-time incentive. Since that report changed my incentives numbers, I decided that it would be a good time to go over those totals again.
Background
A team's adjusted cap consists of three numbers:
- League cap number
- Prior year carryover adjustments for Likely To Be Earned (LTBE)/Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives
- Adjustments for Likely To Be Earned (LTBE)/Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives. In 2017, the Patriots were debited a total of $1,006,553 against their 2017 adjusted cap number because of LTBE/NTLBE calculations.
The 2017 Patriots adjusted cap of $168,179,688 consists of $167,000,000 (league cap) plus $5,292,335 (rollover amount from 2016 season) plus $387,353 (LTBE/NTLE adjustment) and minus $4,500,000 (payback of 2012/2013 borrowed cap space).
In an attempt to give you the most accurate projections of the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number and the 2018 salary cap space number, I tracked the Patriots '17 incentives. What has happened in the past is that other projections of the Patriots' cap space ignore the impact of incentives. Remember the 2015 offseason? Some were focusing on the $5,258,054 the Patriots had carried over from 2014, while neglecting that several Patriots, most notably Vince Wilfork, had earned NLTBE incentives to help the Patriots win their fourth Super Bowl.
LTBE incentives count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned. All but one (46-man active roster) NLTBE bonuses do not.
Earned LTBE incentives: Since they already count against current year's cap, earning LTBE incentives will not change the player's cap number.
Unearned LTBE incentives: When a player does not earn a LTBE incentive, his team will then receive a credit on next years' cap.
Earned NTLBE incentives: Forty-six man active roster bonuses count against current year's cap. All other earned NLBTE incentives count as a debit against next year's cap.
Unearned NLTBE incentives: When a player does not earn a NLTBE incentive, it has no impact on current year's cap or on next year's cap since the incentive was not counting against the team's salary cap.
At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs incentives that weren’t earned. Basically, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBE incentives are greater than the earned NLTBE incentives, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount.
Similarly, if the earned NLTBE incentives exceed the unearned LTBE incentives, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at NFLPlayers.Com. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2014 than they did not earn LBTE incentives.
As far as I know, all of the below Patriots incentives have to be earned during the regular season. (Postseason stats don't count.) Please note that the incentives are typically paid out the following February. The player's contract specifies the actual date. (For example, I know that at least two players were paid on Feb. 15, 2018 for hitting their '17 incentives -- Rob Gronkowski and James Develin.)
First, the LTBE incentives that counted on the Patriots 2017 salary cap. Please note that the Patriots averaged playing 71.25 snaps on offense and 66.3125 snaps on defense.
I will be bolding the earned incentives and italicizing the unearned incentives.
* Dont'a Hightower had a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Unearned
* Dont'a Hightower's 65 percent playing-time incentive ($375,000): Unearned since Hightower played in 22 percent of the defensive snaps this season.
* Matthew Slater had a $150,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Earned
* Matthew Slater had a $50,000 incentive that could have been earned by either the Patriots winning 13 regular season games OR appearing in the Super Bowl: Earned with the Patriots' victory over the Jets on New Year's Eve.
* Patrick Chung's 65 percent playing-time incentive ($200,000): Earned since Chung played in 87.6 percent of the defensive snaps this season.
* Patrick Chung's 75 percent playing-time incentive ($400,000): Earned (See above for reason)
* Patrick Chung's 80 percent playing-time incentive and 13 regular-season wins ($300,000): Earned since Chung played in 87.6 percent of the defensive snaps this season AND the Patriots won 13 regular-season games in 2017
* Patrick Chung's 80 percent playing-time incentive and Super Bowl appearance ($300,000): Earned since Chung played in 87.6 percent of the defensive snaps this season AND the Patriots were the 2017 AFC champions
* Patrick Chung's 85 percent playing-time incentive ($500,000): Earned since Chung played in 87.6 percent of the defensive snaps this season.
* James Develin's 20 percent playing-time incentive ($100,000): Earned since Develin played in 30.35 percent of the offensive snaps.
* James Develin's 30 percent playing-time incentive ($100,000): Earned (See above for reason).
* David Harris' 60 percent playing-time incentive ($250,000): Unearned since Harris played in 23 percent of the defensive snaps.
* David Harris' 80 percent playing-time incentive ($500,000): Unearned. (See above for reason.)
* Alan Branch's 50 percent playing-time incentive ($125,000): Unearned since Branch played in 25.73 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Alan Branch's playing-time incentives that would kick in at 55 and 60 percent ($375,000 each): Unearned. (See above for reasons.)
* Julian Edelman's $500,000 incentive that could have been earned in one of the following four ways:
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance. Unearned since Edelman spent the entire 2017 season on Injured Reserve.
Summary
Unearned: $3,000,000
Earned: $2,100,000
Total: $5,100,000
So we add the amounts for the unearned events and we get a total of $3,000,000 that will be credited to the Patriots 2018 cap.
Secondly, the NLTBE incentives. Please note the Patriots averaged playing 71.25 snaps on offense and 66.3125 snaps on defense per game:
Once again: I will be bolding the earned incentives and italicizing the unearned incentives.
* Ryan Allen had a $50,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Unearned.
* Nate Solder had a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Unearned.
* Nate Ebner had a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Unearned.
* Dont'a Hightower had a $500,000 All-Pro incentive: Unearned.
* Dont'a Hightower's playing-time incentives that would kick in at 70, 75 and 80 percent ($250,000 each): Unearned since Hightower played in only 22.34 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Johnson Bademosi had a $300,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Unearned.
* Johnson Bademosi had a $400,000 incentive for four interceptions: Unearned since Bademosi did not have an interception.
* Johnson Bademosi's playing-time incentives that would kick in at 35 and 50 percent ($200,000 each): Unearned since Bademosi played in only 20.26 percent of the defensive snaps.
* LaAdrian Waddle's playing time incentive: $200,000 if he plays in 40 percent of the offensive snaps: Unearned since Waddle played in only 29.5 percent of the offensive snaps.
* LaAdrian Waddle's playing time incentive: $400,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the offensive snaps: Unearned (See above for reason).
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive: $200,000 if he plays in 40 percent of the offensive snaps: Unearned since Dion Lewis played in only 35.4 percent of the offensive snaps.
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive: $300,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the offensive snaps: Unearned (See above for reason).
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive: $400,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the offensive snaps: Unearned (See above for reason).
* Lawrence Guy's 50 percent playing-time incentive ($400,000): Earned since Guy played in 54.85 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Lawrence Guy's 55 percent playing-time incentive ($500,000): Unearned since Guy played in 54.85 percent of the defensive snaps. Missed earning this incentive by just two snaps. See this post for more information.
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive: $500,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the defensive snaps: Unearned since Guy played in only 54.85 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive: $250,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the defensive snaps: Earned since Harmon played in 65.6 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentives that would kick in at 70 and 80 percent ($250,000 each): Unearned since Harmon played in 65.6 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Alan Branch's 65 percent playing time incentive: $375,000: Unearned since Branch played in 25.73 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Shea McClellin's playing-time incentives that would kick in at 60 and 70 percent ($250,000 each): Unearned since McClellin spent the entire 2017 season on Injured Reserve.
* Shea McClellin had a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive: Unearned.
* Rob Gronkowski's $1 million incentive could have been earned in one of the following four ways:
- Scores 10 touchdowns
- Catches 60 passes
- Has 800 receiving yards
- 70 percent playing-time
Earned since Gronkowski played in 79 percent of the offensive snaps but superseded by Gronkowski reaching the highest tier.
* Rob Gronkowski's $3 million incentive could have been earned in one of the following four ways:
- 80 percent playing-time
- Scores 12 touchdowns
- Catches 70 passes
- Has 1,000 receiving yards
Earned since Gronkowski has 1,084 receiving yards for the season but superseded by Gronkowski reaching the highest tier.
* Rob Gronkowski's $5.5 million incentive could have been earned in one of the following five ways:
- 90 percent playing-time
- Scores 14 touchdowns
- Catches 80 passes
- Has 1,200 receiving yards
- Named first-team All-Pro
Earned with Gronkowski being named to the AP All-Pro first team.
Summary
Unearned: $7,400,000
Earned: $6,150,000
Total: $13,550,000
Therefore, there will be $6,150,000 in earned NLTBE incentives that will be debited against the Patriots 2018 cap.
To sum up the $8,250,000 incentives (LTBE and NLTBE) that were actually earned:
- Gronkowski's $5.5 million incentive that was earned with the AP All-Pro honor.
- Guy's $400,000 50 percent playing-time incentive
- Slater's $150,000 Pro Bowl honor
- Slater's $50,000 13 wins
- Harmon's $250,000 60 percent playing-time incentive
- Chung's $200,000 65 percent playing-time incentive
- Chung's $400,000 75 percent playing-time incentive
- Chung's $300,000 80 percent playing-time incentive AND 13 wins
- Chung's $500,000 85 percent playing-time incentive
- Develin's $100,000 20 percent playing-time incentive
- Develin's $100,000 30 percent playing-time incentive
- Chung's $300,000 80 percent playing-time incentive AND a Super Bowl appearance
Please note the unearned LTBE incentives will not be the only credits coming to the Patriots 2018 salary cap.
The Patriots will also get a $750,000 credit for the 16 46-man active roster bonuses that Edelman did not earn by being on Injured Reserve.
The Patriots will also get a $437,500 credit for Hightower not being active for 13 games.
The Patriots will get a $350,000 credit for the 14 46-man active roster bonuses that McClellin did not earn by spending the year on Injured Reserve.
The Patriots will also receive a $250,000 credit for Cannon not being active for 15 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $225,000 credit for Bennett not being active for all 8 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $187,500 credit for Gillislee not being active for 15 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $187,500 credit for Hogan not being active for 15 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $162,500 credit for Branch not being active for all 16 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $93,750 credit for Harris not being active for 15 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $93,750 credit for Rex Burkhead not being active for all 16 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $75,000 credit for Slater not being active for 13 gamesr.
The Patriots will also receive a $62,500 credit for Stephon Gilmore not being active for 15 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $54,687.50 credit for Ebner not being active for all 16 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $37,500 credit for Andrews not being active for all 16 games.
The Patriots will also receive a credit ($77,200 total) for the salaries that they guaranteed in 2017 and that were offset by the player earning cash elsewhere in 2017.
The impacted players are:
Austin Carr: $22,500
D.J. Killings: $20,000
Cody Hollister: $10,000
Brooks Ellis: $7,200
Jason King: $5,000
David Jones: $5,000
Kenny Moore: $2,500
LeShun Daniels: $2,500
Jason Thompson: $2,500
Credits:
Unearned LTBE incentives: $3,000,000
Unearned LTBE 46-man active roster bonuses: $2,967,188
Guaranteed Salary Offset Credit: $77,200
Total Credits: $6,044,388
The $6,044,388 credit amount minus $6,150,000 in debits leads to a negative adjustment of $105,613. The $105,613 negative adjustment will be included in the Patriots 2018 adjusted salary cap number calculation as a debit. If 2018 League Cap is $178.1 million, the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number would then be $178,000,000 before including the 2017 rollover amount. You can see from the NFLPA public salary cap page that the Patriots 2017 carryover amount is $3,012,602 So my current projection for the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number is $180,500,000 (League Cap of $178.1 million plus $3,000,000 rollover minus $600,000 adjustment.
Using all of the above projections which will change frequently between now and the start of the 2018 League Year on March 14th here is my current estimate for the Patriots 2018 cap space number.
League Cap: $178,100,000
Prior Year Carryover: $3,021,602
Adjustment: (-$105,613)
Patriots Adjusted Cap: $181,006,989
2018 Cap Commitment: $166,887,435 - Please note that this number accounts for the 63 players already signed for the 2018 season.
2018 Cap Space $14,119,554
Answering some questions I anticipate this blog will create:
Q: What would happen to a player's 2018 cap number if he reaches a NLTBE incentive in 2017?
A: I'll use Harmon as an example. Since he averaged playing 68 percent of the snaps in 2017, he increased his 2018 cap number by $250,000 because since his lowest tier playing-time incentive will now be considered LTBE for the 2018 season since he earned it (60 percent) in 2017.
Q: When should we expect the official League Cap number to be announced?
A: Going by past history, March 1. In 2016, it was announced Feb. 29th. In 2017, it was announced March 1st.
Q: After projecting all season long that Matthew Slater would not garner the Pro Bowl honor, how surprised are you that he did?
A: Very surprised. Slater played in 94 special teams snaps, which is tied for the 15th highest on the team. There are special team players in the AFC who played over three times as many snaps. Was Slater that good in so few snaps that he deserved the honor over players who played in much more snaps? Thought last year that Ebner should have gotten the Pro Bowl nod. (I wonder if Ebner was not on IR if he would have gotten it.) Personally, I thought that Jonathan Jones had been the best Pats special teams players this season. I understand that he had no shot of winning since he was not on the ballot. To be clear, Slater played at a high level while on the field. It is very likely that there were other special team players who also played at a high level but for far more games and snaps. If Slater had not gotten the Pro Bowl nomination, doubt that anyone who say that he was snubbed.
Q: Besides the already mentioned players what Patriots have incentives for the 2018 season whose likeliness to be earned classification will be determined by how they do in 2017?
- David Andrews has two playing-time incentives that commence in 2018. He will earn $250,000 if he plays in at least 65 percent of the snaps in 2018. He will earn another $450,000 if he plays in 85 percent. Since he averaged playing 87.3 percent of the snaps in the 2017 season, both incentives will now be considered LTBE for the 2018 season increasing his 2018 cap number by $700,000 to $2,350,000
- James White has four incentives that commence in the 2018 season. He will earn $250,000 if he plays in at least 50 percent of the snaps in 2018, and will earn another $250,000 if he plays in 60 percent. He will earn $250,000 if he has 1,000 total yards from scrimmage and another $250,000 if he has 1,200 total yards from scrimmage. White played in 35.6 percent of the snaps in the 2017 season and had 600 yards from scrimmage so none of his four incentives will be considered LTBE for the 2018 season.
Q: How else can playing-time affect the Patriots cap?
A: Please review my piece on the Proven Pay Escalator.
Prior Editions:
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