A team's adjusted cap consists of three numbers:
- League cap number
- Prior year carryover adjustments for Likely To Be Earned (LTBE)/Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives
- Adjustments for Likely To Be Earned (LTBE)/Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives. In 2017 the Patriots were debited a total of $231,847 against their 2017 adjusted cap number because of LTBE/NTLBE calculations.
The 2017 Patriots adjusted cap of $167,560,488 consists of $167,000,000 (league cap) plus $5,292,335 (rollover amount from 2016 season) minus $231,847 (LTBE/NTLE adjustment) and minus $4,500,000 (payback of 2012/2013 borrowed cap space).
In an attempt to give you the most accurate projections of the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number and 2018 salary cap space number, I will track the Patriots 2017 incentives. What has happened in the past is that other projections of the Patriots' cap space ignore the impact of incentives. Remember the 2015 offseason? Some were focusing on the $5,258,054 the Patriots had carried over from 2014, while neglecting that several Patriots, most notably Vince Wilfork, had earned NLTBE incentives to help the Patriots win their fourth Super Bowl.
Background:
LTBE incentives count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned. All but one (46-man active roster) NLTBE bonuses do not.
Earned LTBE incentives: Since they already count against current year's cap, earning LTBE incentives will not change the player's cap number.
Unearned LTBE incentives: When a player does not earn a LTBE incentive, his team will then receive a credit on next years' cap.
Earned NTLBE incentives: Forty-six man active roster bonuses count against current year's cap. All other earned NLBTE incentives count as a debit against next year's cap.
Unearned NLTBE incentives: When a player does not earn a NLTBE incentive, it has no impact on current year's cap or on next year's cap since the incentive was not counting against the team's salary cap.
At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs incentives that weren’t earned. Said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBE incentives are greater than the earned NLTBE incentives, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount.
Similarly, if the earned NLTBE incentives exceed the unearned LTBE incentives, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at NFLPlayers.Com. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2014 than they did not earn LBTE incentives.
As far as I know, all of the below Patriots incentives have to be earned during the regular season. That is, any postseason stats will not count. Please note that the incentives are typically paid out the following February. The player's contract specifies the actual date. (For example, I know that at least two players will be paid on Feb. 15, 2018 if they earn their 2017 incentives.)
I will first tackle the LTBE incentives that are currently counting on the Patriots 2017 salary cap. Please note that over the first five games of the season the Patriots have averaged playing 73.2 snaps on offense and 67.8 snaps on defense. The changes in likelihood from last week are italicized.
* Matthew Slater has a $200,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Unlikely since Slater has already missed four games.
* Patrick Chung's 65 percent playing-time incentive - $200,000 - Probable since Chung has played in 78.5 percent of the snaps so far.
* Patrick Chung's 75 percent playing-time incentive - $400,000 - Probable since Chung who has played in 78.5 percent of the snaps so far
* Patrick Chung's 80 percent playing-time incentive and 13 regular-season wins - $300,000 - Possible since Chung who has played in 78.5 percent of the snaps so far can average playing 80.9 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive AND it is possible for the Pats to go 10-1 the rest of the year.
* Patrick Chung's 80 percent playing-time incentive and Super Bowl appearance - $300,000 - Possible since Chung who has played in 78.5 percent of the snaps so far can average 81.1 percent the rest of the year to earn this incentive AND it is possible for the Pats to win the AFC this year.
* Patrick Chung's 85 percent playing-time incentive - $500,000 - Possible but unlikely since Chung would have to play an average 88.5 percent of the snaps the rest of the year.
* Dont'a Hightower's 65 percent playing-time incentive - $375,000 - Possible since Hightower can average 76.7 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive.
* Dont'a Hightower's 70 percent playing-time incentive - $250,000 - Unlikely since Hightower would have to average 84.1 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 27 percent.
* Dont'a Hightower's 75 percent playing-time incentive - $250,000 - Unlikely since Hightower would have to average 91.4 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 27 percent.
* James Develin's 20 percent playing-time incentive - $100,000 - Probable since Develin has played in 23.8 percent of the snaps.
* James Develin's 30 percent playing-time incentive - $100,000 - Possible but unlikely since Develin who has played in 25.3 percent of the snaps so far this year would have to average 32.8 percent the rest of the season. Has never played that high of a percentage this year.
* David Harris' 60 percent playing-time incentive - $250,000 - Unlikely since Harris would have to average 87 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 1.8 percent.
* David Harris' 80 percent playing-time incentive - $500,000 - Impossible If the Patriots defense continues to average 67.8 snaps a game and even if David Harris were to play in 100 percent of them going forward his playing-time percentage for the year would be 69.3 percent.
* Alan Branch's 50 percent playing-time incentive - $125,000 - Possible since Branch would have to average 61.96 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 23.9 percent this year, 60 percent in 2016.
* Alan Branch's 55 percent playing-time incentive - $375,000 - Possible but unlikely since Branch would have to average 69.3 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 25.8 percent this year, 60 percent in 2016.
* Alan Branch's 60 percent playing-time incentive - $375,000 - Possible but unlikely since Branch would have to average 76.7 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 25.8 percent this year, 60 percent in 2016.
* Julian Edelman's $500,000 incentive that could have been earned in one of the following four ways:
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance - Impossible since Edelman is now on IR with no chance to play in 2017.
Summary
Impossible - $1,000,000
Unlikely - $1,300,000
Possible - $2,100,000
Probable - $700,000
Total - $5,100,000
So we add the amounts for the unlikely and impossible events and we get a total of $2,300,000 that will be credited to the Patriots 2018 cap.
I will now estimate the chances of the NLTBE incentives being earned. Please note these estimates will probably change greatly throughout the season as there are injuries and roster changes. Please note that over the first five games of the season the Patriots have averaged playing 73.2 snaps on offense and 67.8 snaps on defense.
Please note that the changes in likelihood from last week are italicized.
* Ryan Allen has a $50,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Unlikely according to Inside the Pylon's Chuck Zodda who focuses on the kicking game.
* Nate Solder has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Possible but unlikely
* Nate Ebner has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Unlikely - Feel that Bademosi has the better shot of earning the Pro Bowl bid.
* Shea McClellin has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Impossible as McClellin is on IR.
* Johnson Bademosi has a $300,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Possible
* Dont'a Hightower has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Unlikely
* Dont'a Hightower has a $500,000 All-Pro incentive - Unlikely
* Johnson Bademosi has a $400,000 incentive for four interceptions - Unlikely since Bademosi has not played a snap on defense
* Johnson Bademosi's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 35 percent of the defensive snaps - Unlikely since Bademosi has not played a snap on defense
* Johnson Bademosi's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the defensive snaps - Unlikely since Bademosi has not played a snap on defense
* LaAdrian Waddle's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 40 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Waddle has played in 25 percent of the offensive snaps and with the offensive line starters playing 100 percent of the snap would need to play 100 percent of the snaps in 6 more games to get to 40 percent of the year. Can't see that happening unless Solder and/or Cannon miss that many games.
* LaAdrian Waddle's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Waddle has played in 25 percent of the offensive snaps and with the offensive line starters playing 100 percent of the snap would need to play 100 percent of the snaps in 9 more games to get to 60 percent of the year. Can't see that happening unless Solder and/or Cannon miss that many games.
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 40 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Lewis has played in 17.5 percent of the offensive snaps
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive - $300,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Lewis has played in 17.5 percent of the offensive snaps
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Lewis has played in 17.5 percent of the offensive snaps
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the defensive snaps - Probable since Guy has played in 57.5 percent of the defensive snaps
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 55 percent of the defensive snaps - Probable since Guy has played in 57.5 percent of the defensive snaps
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive - $500,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the defensive snaps - Possible since Guy has played in 57.5 percent of the defensive snaps
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive - $250,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the defensive snaps - Probable since Harmon has played in 80.8 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive - $250,000 if he plays in 70 percent of the defensive snaps - Probable since Harmon has played in 80.8 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive - $250,000 if he plays in 80 percent of the defensive snaps - Probable since Harmon has played in 80.8 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Alan Branch's 65 percent playing time incentive - $375,000 - Unlikely since Branch has only played in 23.9 percent of the defensive snaps
* Dont'a Hightower's 80 percent playing time incentive - $125,000 - Possible but unlikely since Hightower has only played in 39.5 percent of the defensive snaps
* Shea McClellin's 60 percent playing time incentive - $250,000 - Impossible since McClellin is on IR.
* Shea McClellin's 70 percent playing time incentive - $250,000 - Impossible since McClellin is on IR.
* Rob Gronkowski's $1,000,000 incentive can be earned in one of the following four ways
I will bold the ways that Gronk is on pace
1.) 70 percent playing-time
2.) Scores 10 touchdowns
3.) catches 60 passes
4.) has 800 receiving yards - Probable since with 2 TDs, 20 receptions, and 318 receiving yards Gronk is on pace for 1,018 receiving yards, 6.4 touchdowns, 64 receptions, and 70.5 percent playing time
* Rob Gronkowski's $3,000,000 incentive can be earned in one of the following four ways
1.) 80 percent playing-time
2.) Scores 12 touchdowns
3.) catches 70 passes
4.) has 1,000 receiving yards - Probable since with 2 TDs, 20 receptions, and 318 receiving yards Gronk is on pace for 1,018 receiving yards, 6.4 touchdowns, 64 receptions, and 70.5 percent playing time
* Rob Gronkowski's $5,500,000 incentive can be earned in one of the following five ways
1.) 90 percent playing-time
2.) Scores 14 touchdowns
3.) catches 80 passes
4.) has 1,200 receiving yards
5.) named first-team All-Pro - Possible since with 2 TDs, 20 receptions, and 318 receiving yards Gronk is on pace for 1,018 receiving yards, 6.4 touchdowns, 64 receptions, and 70.5 percent playing time. Rob Gronkowski is battling Zack Ertz who has 1 touchdown, 26 receptions, and 326 receiving yards for the All-Pro award at the tight-end position.
Summary
Impossible - $1,875,000
Unlikely - $3,725,000
Possible - $3,300,000
Probable - $4,650,000
Total - $13,550,000
So just using the amount for the probable events we get $4,650,000 that will be debited against the Patriots 2018 cap.
Please note the unearned LTBE incentives will not be the only credits coming to the Patriots 2018 salary cap.
They will also get a $750,000 credit for the 16 46-man active roster bonuses that Julian Edelman will not earn by being on IR.
The Patriots will also get at the very minimum a $150,000 for Shea McClellin who is also on IR. McClellin who has a $25,000 46-man active roster bonus was active for 14 games in 2016 and will be active at most for 8 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $46,875 credit for Rex Burkhead not being active for all 16 games.
The Patriots will also receive a $18,750 credit for Matthew Slater not being active for 13 games this year.
The Patriots will also receive a $40,625 credit for Alan Branch not being active for all 16 games.
The Patriots will also receive a credit ($45,000 total) for the salaries that they guaranteed in 2017 and that were offset by the player earning cash in 2017.
The affected players are:
Austin Carr - $22,500
Cody Hollister - $10,000
Jason King - $5,000
David Jones - $5,000
Kenny Moore - $2,500
Credits
Unearned LTBE incentives - $2,300,000
Unearned LTBE 46-man active roster bonuses (Edelman, Burkhead, Slater, Branch and McClellin) - $1,106,250
Guaranteed Salary Offset Credit - $45,000
Total Credits - $3,295,000
The $3,451,250 credit amount minus $4,650,000 in debits leads to a negative adjustment of $(1,198,750). I am going to use 1.2 million the rest of the way for the sake of simplicity.
The $1,200,000 negative adjustment will be included in the Patriots 2018 adjusted salary cap number calculation as a debit. If 2018 League Cap is $180 million, the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number would then be $178,800,000 before including the 2017 rollover amount. I currently project that the 2016 rollover amount will be $3,000,000. So my current projection for the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number is $181,800,000 (League Cap of $180 million plus $3,000,000 rollover minus $1,200,000 adjustment.
Using all of the above projections which will change frequently between now and the start of the 2018 League Year on March 14th here is my current estimate for the Patriots 2018 cap space number.
League Cap - $180,000,000
Prior Year Carryover - $3,000,000
Adjustment - ($1,200,000)
Patriots Adjusted Cap - $181,800,000
2018 Cap Commitment - $160,900,000
After tendering Ted Karras as an ERFA and signing 10 practice squad players the Patriots should have 56 players signed or tendered for the 2018 season.
2018 Cap Space $20,900,000
Answering some questions I anticipate this blog will create:
Q: Your cap space number is currently around $5 million. Why do you think that they will end up with $3 million?
A: Expect the Patriots to continue to replace players that are placed on IR. Also expect them to increase their salaries of a couple more practice squad players. As some players, most notably Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski, are active for more games in 2017 than they were in 2016 the Patriots will lose cap space. As of October 7, the Patriots will lose $710,937.50 in cap space if nine players are active for every game the rest of the 2017 season.
Q: Who are those nine players?
A: Dwayne Allen, Mike Gillislee, Rob Gronkowski, Stephon Gilmore, Dont'a Hightower, Chris Hogan, Dion Lewis, Nate Solder, LaAdrian Waddle.
Q: How could the Patriots create more cap space?
A: Look for the answer in an upcoming post.
Q: How can injuries change your estimates?
A: Injuries to the three other running backs will increase Dion Lewis' chances of earning his playing-time incentives. The only way that Waddle can earn his playing-time incentive is a plethora of injuries to his fellow offensive tackles.
Q: How would a David Harris removal from roster affect your estimates?
A: If David Harris were no longer on the Patriots 53-man roster via trade or retirement his remaining salary, unearned 46-man active roster and LTBE incentives would come off the Patriots salary cap increasing the Patriots salary cap number and therefore the amount that they would carry over into 2018. If Harris were to be cut, his salary would remain on the Patriots 2017 cap since he is eligible for termination pay.
Q: What would happen to a player's 2018 cap number if he reaches a NLTBE incentive in 2017?
A: I am going to use Duron Harmon as an example. If he continues to average playing 86 percent of the snaps in 2017, he will increase his 2018 cap number by $750,000 because his playing-time incentives would then be considered LTBE since he earned them the previous year.
Q: Can Gronkowski earn $9.5 (1+3+5.5) million in incentives this year?
A: No, the most he can earn is $5.5 million.
Q: Will rushing for a touchdown, however unlikely, help Gronkowski reach his incentives?
A: Yes, his incentives uses the word "achieves" while listing touchdowns. So rushing touchdowns or return touchdowns would be included.
Q: Some reports of Gronkowski's incentives do not mention scoring 14 touchdowns as part of his top tier?
A: Those reports are incomplete.
Q: What will take to move some of Alan Branch's playing-time incentives from possible but unlikely to just unlikely?
A: A couple of more games with very few snaps.
Q: Besides the already mentioned players what Patriots have incentives for the 2018 season whose likeliness to be earned classification will be determined by how they do in 2017?
A: 1.) David Andrews has two playing-time incentives that commence in the 2018 season. He will earn $250,000 if he plays in at least 65 percent of the snaps in 2018. He will earn another $450,000 if he plays in 85 percent. If he continues to play all of the snaps in the 2017 season, both incentives will be considered LTBE for the 2018 season increasing his 2018 cap number by $700,000.
2.) James White has four incentives that commence in the 2018 season. He will earn $250,000 if he plays in at least 50 percent of the snaps in 2018. He will earn another $250,000 if he plays in 60 percent. He will earn $250,000 if he has 1,000 total yards from scrimmage and another $250,000 if he has 1,200 total yards from scrimmage. James White has played in 50.7 percent of the snaps in the 2017 season and is on pace for 984 yards from scrimmage so one of his four incentives would be considered LTBE for the 2018 season increasing his 2018 cap number by $250,000.
Q: What is Eric Rowe's snap percentage?
A: Background: The Patriots traded a 4th round pick to the Eagles in exchange for Eric Rowe. The pick will be upgraded to a 3rd round pick if Eric Rowe plays in at least 50 percent of the snaps in 2017.
After five games Rowe has played in 26.3 percent of the Patriots defensive snaps and will have to average 61.9 percent of the snaps the rest of the year. The highest percentage that Rowe has played in a game this season has been 52.9 percent.
Q: How else can playing-time can affect the Patriots cap?
A: Background: The Proven Pay Escalator can increase the fourth year salary of a player drafted in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. If one of those players plays in at least 35 percent of the snaps in 2 of his first 3 three years or his total snap percentage for the first three years is 35 percent his fourth year salary will increase from the minimum to the low RFA tender for his fourth year. Shaq Mason by playing in more than 35% of the snaps in 2015 and in 2016 has also increased his 2018 salary from $705,000 to somewhere between $1,881,000 and $1,970,000. One more game of playing 97 percent of the snaps will increase Trey Flowers' salary from $705,000 to somewhere between $1,881,000 and $1,970,000. One more game of playing 100% of the snaps during the 2017 season will increase Joe Thuney's 2019 salary from $720,000 to somewhere between $1,975,000 and $2,167,000. Elandon Roberts and Deatrich Wise with their 46 percent and 39 playing-time percentages are well on their way to making 2017 a qualifying year.
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