McAdam: Collapse of free agent market could offer Red Sox chance to get own players signed long-term

FORT MYERS, Fla. – It’s the middle of February, and still, there are enough unsigned free agents to fill more than four major league rosters. So many players are still out of work, in fact, that many will soon be working out in a makeshift training facility some 90 miles from here, attempting to stay in shape while waiting for job offers.

There are multitudes of reasons for the chilly market, ranging from changes to the recent collective bargaining agreement that seem to be acting as a drag on teams spending freely, to the prospect of saving up money for the star-studded free agent class (featuring Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and perhaps Clayton Kershaw) next winter.

Whatever the variables contributing to the current slowdown, it’s impacted the game’s economics in a big way. It used to be that players counted the days until they were eligible for free agency, secure in the knowledge that untold riches awaited them. Always, the numbers escalated.

Now, however, players may view looming free agency with a sense of dread. Instead of the prospect of huge raises, a lifetime of security and nine-figure contracts, they could be facing uncertainty.

Mitch Moreland, who signed a two-year, $13 million deal to return to the Red Sox in mid-December, avoided suffering the fate of many fellow free agents who are still waiting to be signed.

“I guess it’s been real good (for me to sign when I did), since it’s still unfolding,’’ said Moreland. “I took care of it early, got it done and focused on getting ready for the season.’’

It’s impossible to predict where all of this is headed. It may be that this is an aberration that won’t soon be repeated. The fact that traditional big-spenders like the Yankees or Dodgers are sitting out this class suggests that this could indeed be temporary. Or it could be the new norm.

Either way, the changes represent an opportunity for teams like the Red Sox, who have an unusually high number of core players approaching free agency. After the 2018 season, the Sox could lose Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel. After 2019, they risk losing Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and Xander Bogaerts. Finally, following the 2020 season, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. will be free agents.

Over the next three winters, then, the Sox stand to lose more than half of their starting rotation, their best reliever and two-thirds of their outfield. And that doesn’t begin to include promising young players like Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers, who haven’t yet accumulated enough service time to qualify for salary arbitration much less free agency, but might otherwise be amenable to extensions.

When asked whether the Red Sox might use spring training as a chance to lock up some of those players long-term, Dave Dombrowksi was predictably non-committal.

“I’ve always felt that contract negotiations with players are things that you keep to yourself,’’ said Dombrowski. “But I will say a lot of our young players are guys who’d like to be in our organization for a long time.’’

The timing here is important. While it’s not feasible – nor necessarily smart – to re-sign every one of your own pending free agents, some are no-brainers. What’s not to like, for instance, about retaining Sale or Betts?

Granted, elite players such as Sale or Betts may be immune from any present or future market corrections. The best players always get their money – eventually.

Then again, the case could be made that J.D. Martinez and Jake Arrieta are, respectively, the best hitter and best pitcher in this offseason’s class, and neither is signed yet.

The Sox would be smart to identify the players they wish to retain most and approach them now. Traditionally, the closer players get to the market, the harder it is to secure an extension. But these aren’t ordinary times. Perhaps they – and others in the organization – view free agency with some trepidation and would welcome the security of getting a multi-year deal that would keep them from having to explore a volatile market.

“Could it (have that effect)? Yes, Will it? I really do not know,’’ said Dombrowski. “I don’t know that answer.’’

The next few weeks might represent a good time to find out.