Scout's Take: Breaking down Super matchup between Patriots and Eagles

FOXBOROUGH — With Super Bowl LII looming next week, we figured we’d get a jump on some game-planning possibilities by talking with an NFC scout about a few things that jump out to him about the Patriots-Eagles matchup. The scout’s take is in italics, and our additional notes with some context from the locker room — and statistical totals — are underneath:


“The run-pass options in the Philly offense are really tailored nicely for Nick (Foles). When they had (Carson) Wentz back there, one of his strengths was play action, but with Foles, they want to get the ball out quickly. It’s a credit to the guys on the offensive side of the ball that they were able to transition on the fly in the middle of the season. A lot of them are familiar with it because it’s a variation of the offense they ran in college. It’s not a big shock for them.”

The run-pass option is a scheme that’s based on getting the ball out as fast as possible, and after talking to defenders on all three levels — defensive line, linebacker and defensive back — about Philly’s ability to execute the RPO successfully, it’s clear it’s going to be one of the overriding points of emphasis for the New England defense. (More on that Thursday.) The run-pass option hinges on the decision-making skills of the quarterback, who has multiple run or pass options on the play. But ultimately, the decision on what to do with the ball isn’t made until after the ball is snapped, depending on which way the targeted defender commits. Quick and accurate decision making is vital. Basically, the Patriots want to confuse and/or slow Foles to make him hold the ball as long as possible.

“Oh, yeah. Bill Belichick is going to call Nick Saban this week when it comes to defending those RPOs. They all call each other. I wouldn’t be surprised if Belichick calls other coaches he knows to try and get some sense of how things went for them. ‘What did you do? What worked? Why do you think it didn’t work?’ Bill is going to lean on some of his guys when it comes to game planning.”

This Tweet caught my eye this week. The notes from Saban underneath are very interesting, and will likely be the focus in many defensive meetings: If you’re a box player, watch the center and not the quarterback to see where the commit takes place. As for the guys on the back end, I asked Devin McCourty on Wednesday about defending RPOs from his perspective. Usually, it means they’re not going to get much help from the guys up front.

“You can’t free up and just go to the ball, because you still have to cover your guy because he’s not blocking. He’s running a route. So for you, it’s a pass play,” explained McCourty. “For the six or seven guys in the box it might be a total run look, so you might not gain any help underneath because they’re playing the run. Individually, matchup-wise, if we're in man-to-man or it’s a zone and a guy is in our zone, we've got to be sound.”

“The real wild card here is that Philadelphia offensive line. That line is pretty damn good, especially when it comes to run blocking. If they are able to do what they did against the Vikings and start to run downhill, that could be an issue for the Patriots, provided they stay in the game. The New England run defense isn’t as stout when it comes to holding up against that sort of offensive line. They need to be able to push that pocket and make Foles move. If they can keep the game close and keep that offensive line pointed in the right direction and play downhill, then this game has a chance to be close.”

The Patriots faced the best rushing team in the regular-season last week in the Jaguars (141.4 rushing yards per game). In Super Bowl LII, they’ll face the third-best rushing team in the league in the Eagles (132.2 rushing yards per contest). Not all of it is because of an effective run-pass option game, as Jay Ajayi (70 carries, 408 yards, 5.8 ypc, 1 TD in 7 games) and LeGarrette Blount (173 carries, 766 yards, 4.4 ypc, 2 TDs) have really done well this year, although Blount is used far less now than he was earlier in the season. If you’re the Eagles, you want to find a way to keep it close into the second half so you can keep running the ball and controlling the tempo.

“Biggest key for the Patriots? Start fast. New England always has that feeling-out process in the early going, but they have to be proactive this time around instead of reactive. You get up by 10 in the second half, and those runs become pass plays, and the run-pass option strictly becomes a pass. That’s going to be key.”

Philly defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will mix it up occasionally, but over the course of the 2017 season, the Eagles played more zone than man, and didn’t blitz all that much. (Although they did send more pressure than usual against the Vikings in the NFC title game.) Per Football Outsiders, the Eagles are good at taking away your top two receivers, but have struggled in other areas, which means they could have some success against the back end of their secondary. One intriguing matchup some have discussed? Combination coverage on Rob Gronkowski that includes versatile defender Malcolm Jenkins, a safety who might have the size (6-foot, 200 pounds) and speed to stick with Gronkowski.

“The other thing for New England? Keep banging that special teams drum, man. That’s going to be a big advantage for them this week, especially when it comes to punting and punt coverage. You saw it against Jacksonville, and you’ll see it this week. The Patriots have been really good at getting teams to have to face some long fields, and that can be a killer. The hardest thing for a team that leans so heavily on the run-pass option is a long field. They can’t keep chopping wood all the way downfield.”

In the AFC title game, the best starting field position of the day for the Jags’ was their own 33. On their 12 offensive series, their average starting field position was their own 21. The same was true for the Titans, whose best starting field position was their own 36. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots’ defense had the lowest average when it came to starting line of scrimmage in the regular season at 24.63. It can be daunting to have to go three-quarters of the field every time you have the ball. Another big performance out of Ryan Allen — who has put five of his 10 punts this postseason inside the opposing 20 — will go a long way toward another New England win.

“And New England can’t get complacent. The Eagles beat two teams the last two weeks because they faced some really complacent teams in Atlanta and Minnesota. They have to stay diligent. I mean, most Belichick teams, this isn’t a problem. But that’s going to be one of the points of emphasis in the facility this week. Don’t get distracted, and they’ll be fine.”