Celtics trade deadline primer: What might happen between now and Feb. 8

The NBA trade deadline is a mere two weeks away, and the Celtics are one of the several teams that could use an upgrade ahead of February 8th. Outside of signing Jarell Eddie to a 10-day contract last week, Danny Ainge has stood pat since opening night, understandable given the team’s success in the standings. However, as a few holes on the depth chart became more apparent in the past few weeks, Ainge and the front office are expected to be active in attempting to address those issues.

Before we get into specific trade candidates, it’s important first to understand what the Celtics have to work with in the coming weeks when it comes to potential deals. Which players are attainable? Which players aren’t going anywhere? Are there certain kinds of deals that are off limits? What are the team’s long-term goals entering the deadline? Let’s break down the answers to those questions to help sort through the barrage of rumors that will be coming over the next 14 days.

Current Payroll


Chart via Basketball-Reference.com

Not going anywhere:

Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown

Brown is a borderline player to put on this list, but he’s developed enough this year that it’s pretty inconceivable to see him getting moved midseason for anything less than a cost controlled starter or a star. Those type of players generally aren’t available midseason. Horford and Tatum aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, unless Anthony Davis is available (he’s not at the moment). I won’t waste time discussing Hayward and Irving, who both serve as building blocks for this team’s core.

We’ll consider it, but it better be a nice upgrade:

Terry Rozier: He’s become a valuable rotation piece for Brad Stevens and is under contract for cheap ($3 million salary) through 2018-19. The Celtics have a top-heavy roster in terms of salary, so a young, developing, cost controlled piece still holds meaningful value. That's despite his inconsistent production of late.

Daniel Theis: One of the best bargains in the league among bench big men. He’s signed for the league minimum for this year and next year, and is outperforming his salary in a big way. While his playing time remains up-and-down because Stevens likes to go small a lot, he’s an important rotation piece at a great price. He could eventually be the starting center for this team if Baynes signs elsewhere this offseason.

It's complicated

Marcus Smart: It’s no secret he's a favorite of Ainge and Stevens. However, he’s in the final year of his rookie contract and hasn’t shown much progression on the offensive end in year four. Despite the fact that the Celtics made a very respectable offer ahead of the October deadline according to league sources, an extension wasn’t reached during the preseason. Smart’s refusal to take that deal could leave the Celtics with some worry about his status entering the summer, and that may factor into their trade deadline thinking.

Will he agree to a deal that fits into Boston’s budget for next year? If the Celtics worry he’s going to push for more than they’re willing to offer, the risk remains that the 23-year-old guard could accept a qualifying offer and position himself for unrestricted free agency down the line. If the Celtics want to avoid that possible scenario altogether, they might be proactive in finding a player that would fit more in their price range for next year. If that’s the case, Smart could become expendable in the right deal. It’s still a long shot, but it’s no longer a certainty he remains in Boston long-term.

Movable veteran contracts

Marcus Morris: The 28-year-old veteran hasn’t been a great fit during his first few months in green. Between constant knee issues and countless mid-range shots, Morris hasn’t been the piece that the Celtics hoped they acquired when they dealt away Avery Bradley for him. With that said, he’s still a valuable trade chip due to his great contract. He’s making just $5 million for this season and next season, a bargain price for a stretch four who can create his own shot (even he takes it too much) and can defend multiple positions. I’d only expect him to be dealt if it’s for a player that’s under contract for the next couple seasons. Despite his struggles thus far, he’s too valuable to use on a rental.

Aron Baynes: His long-term value to the Celtics is limited due to his age (31) and lack of Bird Rights. The Celtics could use non-Bird Rights (up to 125 percent of his current $4.3 million salary) or the mid-level exception ($8.5 million) to retain him in free agency, but his $4.3 million salary makes him one of the few pieces on the roster that isn’t on a max or rookie contract.  On the other hand, Baynes also serves a valuable purpose with this group as a bruiser that can guard big centers like Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond in single coverage. Those are two potential first-round opponents for this team. Unless the Celtics think they can pick up an adequate replacement on the buyout market after moving Baynes, he’s likely to stay put (barring a blockbuster)

Cheap young players with limited value

Guerschon Yabusele: He’s only 22 and under team control for the next four seasons for close to $13 million in total. With that said, he’s a ways away from being a capable rotation player in the NBA, at least defensively. He could be used as a sweetener in the right deal, but isn’t worth more than that. One of the more movable young pieces on the roster due to his $2.2 million salary.

Semi Ojeleye: He’s a bit more valuable to the Celtics organization than Yabusele at this point due to his defensive versatility. Like Yabusele, he’s under team control through the 2020-21 season, but is even cheaper than the Frenchman, earning an average of $1.5 million per year. The type of cost control Ojeleye presents over the long-term make him a piece that won’t be moved unless it’s part of a trade for a substantial upgrade (sixth-man type). The Celtics need cheap contributors like him at the bottom of the roster to build a viable contender.

Throw-ins/salary filler

Shane Larkin: He’s a serviceable third point guard making the veteran’s minimum on a one-year deal. The Celtics have no reason to deal him (he’s been solid this year), but if they need some salary in a deal to match what’s coming in, they can find another serviceable point guard on the scrap heap to take his spot.

Abdel Nader: The 24-year-old small forward is signed to essentially the same deal as Ojeleye but his skills have failed to translate to the NBA level at this point. His contract is not guaranteed beyond this season, making him the most likely piece to get moved in the next couple weeks if his money is needed. He’s at the bottom of the depth chart on this roster.

Non-player assets

Disabled player exception: This exception is worth $8.4 million and can be used on only ONE player via trade or free agency. Said player must be in the final year of his contract if acquired via trade. You can read more details about what the Celtics can and can’t do with the DPE by clicking here.

Lakers/Kings/Sixers protected first round pick: This pick won’t be moved. Too valuable at this juncture to move for anything short of an All-Star.

Grizzlies 2019 protected first round pick: Also highly unlikely to be moved unless for an elite upgrade (i.e. starter level or better on cost controlled deal).

2019 Clippers first round pick (top 14 protected)

Celtics own first round picks (2018-2024)

Celtics own second round picks (2020-2024)

Celtics needs at the deadline

Scoring/shooting: The Celtics have the worst offense in the NBA over the last month and are dealing with shooting inconsistency from several key members of the rotation (Rozier, Morris and Smart). Adding a bench piece to help spread the floor and take away shot attempts from said players would be a welcome alternative for Stevens during games when one of the three are struggling.

A stretch big who can rebound: When Baynes and Theis are on the bench, the Celtics have continually struggled to corral defensive rebounds. As the team struggles with lineups with Morris at the four spot, the Celtics could use a forward that can still shoot and rebound a bit better than Morris. It’s unclear whether any player that fits that mold will be available, but it’s certainly a need for this group as Stevens tries to balance floor spacing and declining rebounding numbers from his non-bigs.

Team considerations at the trade deadline

Will Smart be back? He’s a restricted free agent this summer. If the team doesn’t want to pay his asking price, he could be moved preemptively.

Balancing the payroll for future seasons: Eleven players are currently under contract for $107 million next season, with potential new deals on the horizon for Smart and Baynes. The Celtics won’t have any cap space entering this offseason, so this is one of their few windows to add a bigger salary to the payroll. However, the Celtics will be heading into luxury tax territory next year bill and that bill could skyrocket as Irving's new max deal awaits (assuming he re-signs). Finding and maintaining low-cost players is a major priority since flexibility will be limited for the rest of the decade.

Finding movable salary for deals down the road: The roster is full of rookie contracts and All-Stars making max deals. That breakdown of players will create a challenge in getting the math work when trying to put together a blockbuster deal down the road (since salaries will have to match). The Celtics could be well served in finding a mid-level contract ($10-$15 million) to add to the books for next year that could be a contributor in the interim and potentially used as salary filler down the road if a star (i.e. Anthony Davis) becomes available. If Smart isn’t re-signed, that’s a salary slot that may be open for this team.

In the coming days, I'll take a closer look at specific Celtic targets that could fit these needs and some creative packages the Celtics could offer