MLB Notebook: Changes have yet to produce desired effect for pitchers in Red Sox' system

Better than two years ago, some four months after he was first hired as president of baseball operations for the Red Sox, Dave Dombrowski assembled more than 30 people in the organization after the conclusion of the winter meetings for a special think tank.

The purpose: to examine why it was that the Red Sox, who have had great success in developing homegrown position players, had failed to have the same success with starting pitchers. Dombrowski knew this sobering fact: the last starter the Sox developed who went on to post double-figures in wins in a single season for the Sox was Clay Buchholz, who made his major league debut all the way back in 2007.

Some 25 months later, that has yet to change. The projected Red Sox rotation for 2018 doesn’t include a single homegrown product. Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez were all obtained in trades, while David Price was signed to the largest free agent deal ever awarded to a pitcher.

And now, with Pomeranz eligible for free agency and Price able to opt out after the upcoming season and both Sale and Porcello eligible for free agency after 2019, the Sox may soon face the prospect of either paying mightily to retain their current starters, or forced to quickly find replacements.

With that in mind, it seemed like a good time to check in on the current state of pitching in the Red Sox minor leagues and whether the changes Dombrowski implemented have made a difference.

(It’s important to note that Dombrowski inherited the problem, a failing acknowledged by his two predecessors, Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington).

“I think we’ve made progress,’’ Dombrowski said this week. “Not only with starting pitching, but bullpen guys. A lot of things we talked about then, we followed through on internally. Of course, it’s not a topic you drop, so we continue to discuss those items and I think we’ve made some real strides.

“You can see from an internal perspective, in the bullpen, a lot of those guys (Matt Barnes, Austin Maddox, Brandon Workman) have been homegrown.’’

But the real issue remains the rotation, though Dombrowski believes the organization could be nearing an end of its run of futility with some potential depth options in the system.

“People don’t talk about (Jalen) Beeks,’’ said Dombrowski of the lefty who split time between Pawtucket and Portland last season, “but he’s on the verge of starting at the major league level. Chandler Shepherd is just like that; he’s pitched very well in winter ball. We’re starting to push those guys up, so I think a lot of progress has been made.’’

Dombrowski was reluctant to detail what specific changes were made to the organization – both because he didn’t want to divulge any proprietary information and didn’t want to appear critical of administrations that came before him.

“There were a lot of little changes,’’ he said, “from drafting to some things with our development to (promoting) Brian Bannister and David Bush coming aboard (both to help with pitching analytics). Those are all just general examples.’’

More than anything, Dombrowski believes the organization’s best hopes lay in the lower levels of the team’s system, where, among others, recent No.1 picks Jay Groome and Tanner Houck reside.

“We have some really good young pitching prospects at Single-A,’’ he said. “They’re at Greenville and Salem, and on to Double-A. And so, in another year when they start taking that path from Double-A to Triple-A, people will start saying, ‘Wow – where did this guy come from?’ And I think we’ll get to that point.’’

Ben Crockett, the Red Sox vice president of player development, also believes that things are improving in the lower levels of the system.

“I think we’ve made progress, certainly,’’ Crockett said. “It’s been an area of focus and attention. But obviously, we have room to grow and continue to find ways to help prepare guys. I think we’ve had a group of bullpen arms who have come up and had success, which has been nice to see. But I also think we’ve been better to optimize guys’ repertoires, as well as prepare them for life in the bullpen.

“And I think we’ve also taken some steps forward with regard to use of repertoires and the mental approach needed at the big league level. Then, there’s a guy like Eddie Rodriguez – and I know we didn’t draft or sign him initially – but he came to us at Double-A. But certainly, until we have a No. 1 or No. 2 guy who’s homegrown, we’re going to continue to be focused on that.  Even when we do, we’re going to continue to be focused on it, because it’s such an important area.’’

Like all organizations, the Red Sox have had some outright flops. Trey Ball, who was chosen No. 7 overall in 2013, had a 6.71 ERA at Double-A in 2017 and after four full pro seasons, is considered a bust. The Sox left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft when they didn’t protect him by placing him on the 40-man roster and though available for just $25,000, he went unclaimed.

The same goes for Teddy Stankiewicz, who was selected one round after Ball in the 2013 draft and, at 24, has stalled out following two disappointing seasons at Portland.

Down further in the system sit Groome, the team’s first-round selection in 2016 and Houck, their No. 1 pick last June.

A major league evaluator from another organization who has been assigned to the Red Sox system in recent years saw Groome three times last season and came away underwhelmed.

“I like him, but I just wasn’t blown away,’’ said the scout. “When you’re talking about a guy taken in the top third of the first round, you expect to be blown away. His velocity was off when I saw him, sitting at 91 mph. But I’ll say this: he has a really good curve. That’s a plus-plus pitch already and you can’t always teach that. For me, he’s a No.3 or No. 4 starter.  To me, his floor would be (someone like) Pomeranz, and that’s pretty good.

"But if you’re comparing apples to apples, I saw Price at Vanderbilt at 19, and he was better than Groome is now, at the same age. Again, for a pick that high, you hope for more."

The scout didn’t get to see Houck, who pitched only a handful of innings late last summer after signing with the Sox.

He’s seen Bryan Mata, a highly-valued international signing who some rank second only to Groome in the system, and while he’s impressed with his changeup, projects him as “a possible fifth starter.’’

Other young starters – including Mike Shawaryn and Darwinzon Hernandez – were judged to have live arms, but profile as potential bullpen arms at the big league level.

Of course, evaluations are notoriously subjective and unscientific and it’s entirely possible that one of the pitchers mentioned – or others not cited at all – could add a pitch or refine a delivery and blossom into a front-end starter.

It’s all something of a crapshoot, but the Sox intend to stay the course.

“I think,’’ concluded Crockett, “we need to be kind of methodical with our approach and be consistent with our approach to better develop pitching. There’s a lot that remains to be seen, but we definitely have some really interesting guys at Greenville and Salem and it will be interesting to kind of follow their progress as we push them up the ladder as starters.’’

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It was eye-opening to listen to Red Sox pitchers rave – some without any prompting -- about the promotion of Dana LeVangie from bullpen coach to pitching coach. It’s clear that LeVangie already has the respect of the team’s top starters.

“He’s about as good as they get when it comes to the knowledge of pitching,’’ enthused Chris Sale. “I know the bullpen guys are pretty upset that we’re taking him but I think he’s definitely the right guy for the right spot. He’s so far ahead right now. He’s got everything mapped out. And he works really hard, so it’s nice having a guy like that leading the pack.’’

“I think all of us, as a staff, are extremely excited to work with Dana,’’ added Rick Porcello. “That’s no disrespect to Carl (Willis, who left to become pitching coach in Cleveland) – everyone loved Carl as well. But Dana works his tail off. He’s always in the video room, trying to figure something out, whether it’s’ an individual guy he’s trying to get out of a rut or helping our entire staff try to figure out how to attack a lineup.

“I can’t wait to work with him one-on-one.  A couple of days after he was hired, he called me and we talked for over an hour and we talked about things he had mapped out for me to work on and get better with. As a player, to see your pitching coach spend that much time at that time of the year and have something prepared for you, it gives me chills just thinking about it.’’

“He’s someone I had a lot of conversations with last year,’’ said Drew Pomeranz. “I moved to a different side of the rubber at Dana’s recommendation and I had very good (season) after that point. It was kind of those first few starts, trying to figure out what I was doing, and he made some really good suggestions to me. We all love Dana and I think he’s going to be a great pitching coach for us.’’