MLB Notebook: As Kimbrel nears free agency, Red Sox have a decision to make; plus rules changes coming and more

Next November, in the midst of what is likely to be frenzied bidding for the likes of free agents Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, and just maybe, Clayton Kershaw (opt-out), the Red Sox will face the unsavory prospect of losing their current closer, Craig Kimbrel, himself a free-agent-to-be after the 2018 season.

It’s gone unnoticed in the anticipation of elite position players and one generational starting pitcher, but the star-studded market will also be flush with elite relievers. Beyond Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton and Cody Allen are also approaching huge paydays.

For now, we’ll focus on Kimbrel and the Red Sox.

The explosion of big-ticket contracts for closers began last off-season when Aroldis Chapman got five years and $86 million for an AAV (average annual value) of $17.2 million. That deal eclipsed one signed only days earlier by the San Francisco Giants, who gave Mark Melancon a four-year, $50 million contract.

More recently, Wade Davis inched past Chapman’s AAV record when he agreed to a three-year deal worth $52 million with Colorado, giving him an average of $17.3 million per season.

(The spending spree on bullpen pieces has continued elsewhere in the industry in this otherwise stagnant spending season. Through Friday, according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, a total of $592.5 million worth of contract has been given out in the free agent market, and nearly half of that ($280.3 million) had been spent on relievers.)

For comparison's sake, Davis turned 32 last September, Chapman will turn 30 in February and Kimbrel will turn 30 in May.

If the Red Sox want to retain Kimbrel next fall – or beforehand, for that matter – they had better be willing to pay in excess of $18 million per season for a term of at least three years. (Kimbrel’s current deal, soon to expire, will pay him $13.5 million in 2018 in the final year of what had been a four-year, $42 million deal originally signed with the Atlanta Braves.)

The case could be made that while these three closers plus Los Angeles’s Kenley Jansen represent the top end of the closer market, Kimbrel has been the best pitcher of the four. After all, the current sports the lowest ERA of any reliever in baseball history, with an ERA of 1.80, followed by Mariano Rivera at 2.06, Jansen at 2.08 and Chapman at 2.21.

Kimbrel’s 2017 season was one of the best seasons ever enjoyed by a closer – for the Red Sox or for anyone. Kimbrel posted a 1.43 ERA and had he struck out the final batter he faced on the regular season’s final weekend, he would have fanned exactly half of the hitters who came to the plate against him in 2017. That’s astounding and speaks to Kimbrel’s dominance.

Want more? His WHIP was a microscopic 0.681 and he had a 9.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while limiting opposing hitters to a .140 average. Incredibly, it probably wasn’t the best season of Kimbrel’s eight-year career. For that, you have to go back to 2012, when he allowed just 27 hits in 62.2 innings and posted a 1.01 ERA.

Either way, there’s little doubt as to Kimbrel’s brilliance, and as he enters his age-30 season, he’s been remarkably durable. Other than 2016, his first season in Boston during which he suffered a knee injury and missed time, Kimbrel has pitched in 61 or more games in every year since 2011.

But a decision on re-signing Kimbrel won’t be a simple one. For one thing, the Sox will face a host of core players approaching free agency over the next three years, and even with their resources, it won’t be possible to retain all of them.

And while you could argue that Kimbrel has been every bit as good at his job as, say, Chris Sale (eligible after 2019) or Mookie Betts (eligible after 2020) have been at theirs, the wisdom of making that sort of commitment to a closer is open to debate.

Tellingly, the Chicago Cubs, who dealt for Davis last winter and saw him enjoy a terrific 2017 season, chose not to re-sign him this winter, even though they had no experienced replacement in the organization at the end of their season. (The Cubs signed Brandon Morrow to fill that role last month).

How wise it to pay someone $18 million to record 200 or so outs, when starting pitchers, the best of whom pitch 200 innings, make only marginally more and regularly pitch seven innings per start rather than one?

While it’s inarguably valuable to have a dominant closer, the fact remains that the closer’s role is near-constant turnover. It’s not unusual for numerous contending teams to change closers over the course of the season. Further, while three of the final four teams left standing last October featured truly elite closers (Chapman with the Yankees, Davis with the Cubs, Jansen with the Dodgers), the fact that the Astros won it all after essentially abandoning the struggling Ken Giles as closer in favor of back-end starters (Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers Jr.) is proof that teams can be successful if they’re willing to get creative when closers fail.

For now, there’s no obvious successor to Kimbrel on the Red Sox roster. It’s conceivable that one of their younger relievers such as Matt Barnes or Austin Maddox could grow into that role this season. Or, the Sox could opt for a cheaper alternative like Allen on the market, saving themselves some payroll flexibility.

Closers, after all, are sometimes found in the unlikeliest places. For proof, look back no further than 2013, when in June, having already tried three others in the role, the Sox turned to a 38-year-old with 13 major league saves to his credit. Koji Uehara, you'll recall, worked out just fine for them.

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This week figures to be a critical one when it comes to determining what “pace of game’’ changes are coming to MLB in 2018.

The commissioner’s office will be negotiating with the Players Association, with an eye toward forging an agreement.  MLB officials have said changes must be instituted by mid-month in order to explain the changes to clubs and umpires.

Commissioner Rob Manfred is on record as saying that new rules will be implemented – with or without the agreement of the union. Because Manfred proposed changes last winter – at which the Players Association balked – he has the power to unilaterally impose changes this time around.

The union can either have a hand in those changes – or have them dictated.

It seems likely that a pitch clock – with pitchers forced to deliver within a 20-second window with the bases empty – is going to be introduced. Manfred is adamant baseball needs to speed up games, a logical enough conclusion for anyone who’s paid attention over the last 10 or so years. Last year, the average time of game ticked up to 3:05:11 last season, a new record.

Something must be done to make the game more watchable and less time-consuming, with the slow pace cutting into the game’s appeal.

Think this is hyperbole? A recent Gallup poll found that 37 percent of Americans cited football as their favorite sport, followed by basketball at 11 percent and baseball third at nine percent – just ahead of fourth-place soccer at seven percent.

And, if the poll had focused on fans under 40, baseball’s slippage would have been even greater.

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The American League East has long been looked upon as a powerhouse division, led by two big-market behemoths (New York and Boston), with a third (Toronto) having the capability to, at least periodically, spend freely. In this age of economic parity, even Tampa Bay (Evan Longoria) and Baltimore (Chris Davis) have sometimes spent big.

This off-season? A total of $23 million has been spent on free agents by the five clubs. The Red Sox brought back first baseman Mitch Moreland on a two-year, $13 million pact and the Yankees retained CC Sabathia on a one-year, $10 million contract.

The Rays, Jays and Orioles haven’t spent a dollar. And the only money spent by the Sox and Yanks was allocated to bringing back their own free agents.

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A reminder that the annual Boston Baseball Writers Association awards dinner will be held at the Boston Marriott Copley on Jan. 18. Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi, Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, Christian Vazquez, Brian Cashman and A.J. Hinch will be in attendance.

Tickets can be obtained through SportsMuseum.org or by calling 617-624-1231.