If the Patriots fall short of expectations, which absolutely should be a Super Bowl title, it won't be because of their defense.
Sure, the numbers say something quite different. The New England defense finished the season 31st in yards allowed per play, 31st in rushing yards allowed per play, and 30th in passing yards per game. Even the advanced analytics at FootballOutsiders.com have the Patriots 31st in the league.
But right now, as the Patriots prepare to enter the postseason next week, their defense is better than all of those numbers.
I'm not going to bore you with a bunch of statistics that run counter to those season-long stats, even though the Patriots' scoring defense finished fifth in the league and they were fourth in the red-zone defense (and those are very important numbers).
The Patriots will be fine on defense because of how they've developed some very specific roles, and how they execute.
Let's start up front. Even if Alan Branch (knee) doesn't return from injury, the unit is much better than popular opinion.
Trey Flowers has become every bit the star he showed last year on one edge, even if it's in blue-collar packaging. He's sturdy, strong and relentless. James Harrison, in just one half-game of work, showed that he can vastly improve the run defense on the other side, while bringing a little bit in the pass rush. Expect his snaps to increase dramatically. Eric Lee is weak against the run, but he does flash some pass rush.
On the interior, Lawrence Guy and Malcom Brown have become a dominating duo. Guy has played like he's been shot out of a cannon since midseason (probably needed to get the scheme down). The same goes for Brown since returning from injury. They're tough against the run, but Brown has brought some punch against the pass as well. Ricky Jean Francois is a solid and savvy vet to have for depth. Branch would be a bonus, and if he flips a switch and plays like he did down the stretch last year, the Patriots would be extremely formidable inside. Deatrich Wise (outside) and Adam Butler (inside) have also finally settled into good subpackage roles that accentuate their positives.
The secondary is not perfect, but with three tough-tackling and whip-smart safeties (Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon and Patrick Chung) at the heart, they bring a level of comfort to their teammates and also to defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Stephon Gilmore still has issues figuring out combination coverages, but when the Patriots start playing even more man coverage in the postseason, I'd bank on Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, Eric Rowe and Jonathan Jones holding their own against anyone -- even if the Steelers have a healthy Antonio Brown.
Between the safeties and the cornerbacks, this is as talented a secondary as the Patriots have ever had. Say what you want about the run defense, but these games will come down to the opponent having to make plays in the air and in the red zone. When the games are at their biggest and in crunch time, I'll take my chances with this group.
Of course, we haven't addressed the linebackers, which has been the biggest problem area of late. Elandon Roberts continues to be a big issue in the middle, but the hope is he returns to his usual satisfactory level when Kyle Van Noy returns to playing full-time. That would take some of the play-calling responsibilities away, and allow to Roberts to play unfettered and faster. Or, Marquis Flowers could take some of Roberts' snaps, because Flowers has definitely earned that. He's flourished in every role the Patriots have put him in. At the very least, he's become a dynamite matchup against opposing running backs and mobile quarterbacks (hello Kareem Hunt and Le'Veon Bell).
Maybe we haven't quite seen the total finished product on the field yet, but the ingredients are there for the Patriots' defense to more than do their part in the postseason.
Here are the positional ratings against the Jets:
Quarterback (3.5 out of 5)
Tom Brady completed less than 50 percent of his passes, but you have to remember two things: a) it was brutally cold, and b) his weapons didn't help him out. There were four drops, seven questionable routes and another pass where Brandin Cooks didn't get his feet down in bounds. I had Brady for four "plus" throws and three "minus" throws, which wasn't bad, considering the conditions and the fact he apparently didn't have Rob Gronkowski as a viable weapon. (It looked like Brady wanted to throw to Gronkowski a couple times, but it appeared he caught himself and said, "Oh yeah, I'm not supposed to throw to Gronk in this game.")
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Dion Lewis was just obscene in this game (and in the video below) to the point that I actually ran out of space to tabulate his goodness. Now that the Patriots have taken the boot off the tires, he's actually getting better with every rep, which is scary. His vision is better and he's even more decisive. Now, the game has slowed down to the point that he's slowing it down with his patience.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
Outside of his nice 37-yard corner route and drawing two penalties, Cooks had a rough game with three questionable routes (one in the end zone), a drop and not getting his feet down in bounds on a catchable ball. .... Phillip Dorsett had a drop but he more than makes up for some of his issues with his toughness and willingness as a blocker. That will go a long way to earning him playing time in the postseason. ... Amendola was solid outside of not running the route Brady wanted him to on a third down. He also had a subtle veteran rub to spring Cooks for his touchdown (and totally legal).
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
The pressure rate was a little high for a Jets front seven that was missing much of its' firepower. ... Shaq Mason might have had the worst two quarters of his career in the first half. He was better in the second but still allowed a sack. That being said, Mason still had some crushing run blocks ... In order of effectiveness: David Andrews (no pressures), Joe Thuney (no pressures), Nate Solder, Cam Fleming, Mason. ... Solder and Thuney probably had their best combo game of the season. A good sign heading into the postseason. Solder got his right leg rolled up on.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Outside of four plays, the work done by this group was excellent. ... Lawrence Guy led the way with his impactful play on the interior, and Trey Flowers continued to execute at a Pro Bowl level. ... The surprise was James Harrison. Even before his back-to-back sacks in garbage time on the final two plays, he had four impactful plays. He was strong on the edge, pushed his former Steelers teammate, Kelvin Beachum, around (inside info probably helped), and he also pursued plays all over the field like he was closer to 30, not 40. Yeah, Harrison is definitely going to help.
Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)
Marquis Flowers continues to flourish with playing time: he broke up a pass, stuffed two runs and had half a sack. ... Roberts was OK but he struggled on two big pass plays (one is below) and on a 24-yard run.
Secondary (3 out of 5)
Not much work here for this group in the conditions and against a limited quarterback. ... Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Patrick Chung were rock solid. ... Stephon Gilmore had a communication error on a 14-yard reception, and added a needless personal foul penalty. .... Butler and Gilmore had terrific coverage to produce Lee's safety. ... There wasn't much Jonathan Jones could do on the 46-yard pass. He was right there in zero coverage and Bryce Petty made an outstanding throw.
THREE UP
Dion Lewis: Had 10 plus plays, which is a huge number for a running back. The more touches he gets, the better he is.
Lawrence Guy: Six impactful plays is a ton for an interior player. Has been playing his best ball for over a month. Tough to block right now.
Trey Flowers/James Harrison: Combined for 12 impactful plays, which is the kind of production we haven't seen since Dont'a Hightower was roaming the field.
Honorable mention: David Andrews, Joe Thuney, Malcom Brown, Marquis Flowers, Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler.
THREE DOWN
Brandon Bolden: Very rusty in pass blocking and left yards on the field.
Brandin Cooks: Three questionable routes and a drop is not good enough. If Malcolm Mitchell returns, Cooks could see his snaps reduced.
Jacob Hollister: The Patriots expect more from their rookies in Week 17.
Dishonorable mention: Shaq Mason, Kenny Britt, Elandon Roberts.