Note: Reporting on the Guerrero story pushed this back. .... Oh, and if you're one of those people for whom the scoreboard at the end of the game tells you everything about the game, you're certainly entitled to that opinion. But don't bother reading any further. It's pointless.
In the wake of the Patriots' thrilling 27-24 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday night, the reaction in most of New England has been, That was the Steelers' best shot at toppling the Patriots and they couldn't do it. They're done.
That may indeed be the case. It's certainly possible Pittsburgh, which has lost five straight and 12 of 15 to New England, has a mental block with the Patriots that won't be overcome. The end of Sunday night's game could only reinforce that.
But if you take away those extraneous factors — and, again, they might be very real — a rematch with the Steelers in the postseason (if it even happens) could be another tight, back-and-forth affair.
After reviewing the game film, here's why I say that:
- The Patriots were on the ropes against the Steelers for the entire fourth quarter. One more score by Pittsburgh — even a field goal — and a two-score advantage would have essentially ended the game. The Steelers were on the move for the knockout punch early in the fourth quarter when self-inflicted wounds short-circuited a promising drive (Alejandro Villanueva penalties, giving up on second-and-23). Combine that with coming up 1 yard short of first down (Ben Roethlisberger threw to the wrong receiver) with 2:23 left, and the Patriots were on thin ice. Will the Steelers be bolder given another opportunity?
- The Steelers lost their best player regardless of position (Antonio Brown), and the Patriots still had few answers defensively (413 total yards, 10 of 16 on third downs). If you took Rob Gronkowski out of the Patriots' offense in the first half, New England would be slowed to a crawl. The return of Kyle Van Noy and Alan Branch (possible, but not sure thing) is going to trump a full game of availability from Brown? Doubtful.
- Both the Patriots' offensive and defensive lines were largely dominated by the Steelers. The Patriots got only 27.3 percent pressure on Roethlisberger, and 44.4 percent of that came from Trey Flowers. In a rematch, the Steelers would get back a rested RT in Marcus Gilbert, who is arguably their second-best lineman behind RG David DeCastro and returning from suspension this week. Sure, Van Noy's return will help, but Branch hasn't been great most of this season, and he's dealing with a knee issue. Hard to see the pass rush getting much better, and the offensive line will be the same group.
- The Patriots were called for just two penalties for 4 yards. Have a hard time seeing that happen again.
- The Steelers covered the Patriots very well. There weren't many uncontested throws against a Pittsburgh secondary, which is usually rife with breakdowns, and the Patriots' other receivers were ordinary and easily covered — even with Gronkowski on the field. New Englad will certainly be better prepared to beat man coverage in a rematch, and they could be aided by the return of Chris Hogan. But would that trump the Steelers getting back their best man coverage player (Joe Haden) from injury, and having a better plan against Gronkowski? Call it a wash, at best.
- 2010 deja vu. That year, the Patriots had a similarly big, late-season game when the Jets came to Foxborough in early December and New York fell on its collective face in a 45-3 loss. No one gave the Jets a shot when they returned to Gillette in the postseason, and New York ended up leaving with a dominating 28-21 victory. Sure, the Jets could quickly dismiss a blowout loss and the Steelers could very well suffer a hangover from Sunday night, but Pittsburgh would likely return with a devil-may-care mentality in the postseason. Will the Patriots be overconfident like they were against the Jets given New England's recent dominance of the Steelers?
Here are the positional ratings against the Steelers:
Quarterback (3 out of 5)
Tom Brady rebounded from one of his worst halves of the season — actually, it was the worst half he has played — to have one of his best halves. In many ways, it was similar to the Super Bowl against the Falcons. Atlanta came out with much more man coverage than the Patriots were expecting, and Brady had trouble finding a rhythm. ... Steelers played more man coverage than they have all season, and the Patriots were obviously caught by surprise. Brady was slow processing the play after the snap, and it was highlighted by him throwing late to a wide-open Jacob Hollister in the end zone. By the time Brady threw it, the pass couldn't be completed. ... After resetting at halftime, Brady was sensational in the second half outside of the careless interception, which he should have held for a sack and punted. Made several money throws to Gronkowski (the teardrop over the shoulder was a thing of beauty), and the touchdown to Brandin Cooks was made by Brady's feet and accuracy against pressure. That was peak Brady.
Running backs (4 out of 5)
One adjustment the Patriots should make in a possible rematch: more Dion Lewis. The Patriots had their way running the ball (low 17.6 stuff percentage) and could have done some real damage if given the opportunity. ... James Develin had a drop. ... Rex Burkhead struggled before his injury.
Receivers (4.5 out of 5)
The was the Essential Rob Gronkowski Experience. Much like the Buffalo game (until he lost his mind), Gronk put together his top two-way game. We all saw what he did in the passing game (Sean Davis needs more help from his teammates in a rematch), but Gronkowski also had his best blocking game of the season. Building off the Bills game, Gronkowski had seven standout run blocks, including his wall off of Stephon Tuitt on Lewis' game-winning touchdown. ... Same goes for Dwayne Allen, who had his best game of the season and was terrific with blocking. ... Josh McDaniels had a perfect gameplan play for Cooks' big 43-yard reception on the opening drive, but Cooks was largely invisible after that. They need more from him against the top teams. He can't be just a scheme-open receiver. ... Not sure if something's bothering him, but Danny Amendola wasn't open very often. If a team plays man coverage, Amendola should be able to get loose. Perhaps this is it for him.
Offensive line (3.5 out of 5)
After a review of the film, Nate Solder's breakout game was slightly over-exaggerated. He gave up pressure (three), but it was more of the average variety for a left tackle. ... Yes, Joe Thuney gave up some pressure, but he also made some outstanding one-on-one pass blocks against the excellent Cam Heyward. ... Cam Fleming did a nice job in this game outside of the drive-ending sack to Tuitt he allowed in the third quarter. ... Rating the linemen by effectiveness: David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Fleming, Solder, Thuney. ... That's an excellent Steelers' defensive line. If they had any OLBs, they'd be really dangerous.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
Trey Flowers was simply outstanding in his return for most of the game, but he did have some edge issues against the Steelers' outside power runs. I expect the Patriots to be much improved in this area if there is a rematch. They got pinned in a lot. ... Branch who? For the second-straight game, Malcom Brown and Lawrence Guy were awesome. Both have taken their games to another level in recent weeks. ... Deatrich Wise provided some pressure, but he got out of his gap on a big third-down run by Roethlisberger and was mad at himself. Those kinds of mental errors are still happening too much, and are probably the reason why he's seen his playing time reduced. ... The Patriots should hang onto Ricky Jean-Francois (four plus plays). He's always productive for them. ... Eric Lee was absolutely invisible in a matchup with a backup RT. That shouldn't happen. I thought they'd get more from him.
Linebackers (1 out of 5)
Just an abysmal showing from Elandon Roberts (roadkill in the run game, constantly picked off on the second level), David Harris and Jordan Richards (missed tackle on JuJu Smith-Schuster's 69-yard catch-and-run). ... Roberts missed shooting a gap five times, including a Bell touchdown.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
There was some good sprinkled in (Malcolm Butler's tackle on the game's penultimate play, Eric Rowe and Duron Harmon combining on the interception) but the cornerbacks made it far too easy for the Steelers to move the ball without Brown in the lineup. Stephon Gilmore really struggled, as he's evidently caught the same look-for-the-ball-itis that has plagued Butler. Rowe and Butler each had their issues as well. Will need to be much better if there's a rematch.
THREE UP
Rob Gronkowski: Even if he didn't dominate the final drive of the game, he'd still be in this spot just for his run blocking in the game.
Second-half Tom Brady: Once he got the Steelers' defense figured out and found Gronk, there were multiple money throws against pressure.
Malcom Brown/Lawrence Guy: Did a nice job against the vaunted (but overrated) interior of the Steelers' line. Were a big key as to why Bell wasn't more of a factor.
THREE DOWN
First-half Brady: Steelers threw Brady for a loop with more man coverage than usual, and he didn't have a chance to adjust until halftime. Was slow in his decision-making and late on some of his throws. This is what happens when you show something that Brady hasn't prepared for.
Elandon Roberts: Looked completely lost trying to shoot gaps against the Steelers' running game, and he was also easily walled off when Pittsburgh got blockers to the second level.
Stephon Gilmore: Patriots need to find a cure for the sickness that is spreading in the secondary, which is causing cornerbacks to look for the ball instead of playing the man. It's got Gilmore now. He's also starting to get really grabby in coverage and could see some penalty flags start flying in his direction.