To be honest, I can't recall Tom Brady playing a worse game than the one he had on Monday night in the 27-20 loss to the Dolphins.
He looked uncomfortable from the opening snap, and never really trusted what he was seeing. Openings in coverage -- ones he normally anticipates before the ball is even snapped -- went unnoticed. Matchups he usually exploits went untargeted. Balls that could produce a big gain if thrown to the outside shoulder went to the inside. Deep shots were consistently underthrown. And he reacted to pressure that wasn't there.
Not exactly the best way to head into the biggest regular-season game of the season on Sunday against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. But that's where Brady and the Patriots are.
The big question is: Could Brady's issues linger against the Steelers, or was it just one bad game?
The short answer? This was likely just a momentary blip in Brady's otherwise sterling performance this season. I will allow there could be injury issues that are more of a problem than they appear -- he's been on the injury list with an Achilles, and TV has caught him flexing his throwing hand in consecutive weeks. But outside of that, the downturn in Miami appeared to be a confluence of factors:
- Not having Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman: This one is obvious and has well been well-worn at this point. Both of Brady's favorite targets are mismatches in man coverage, and how opponents cover them — either as a tandem or if one is injured — quickly dictates decisions for Brady. Without them, the decision of where to go with the ball is much more difficult and, often, time-consuming. Plus, both are usually a quick and easy throw for Brady. The good news is Gronkowski — and a rested Gronk at that — will be back against Pittsburgh. That changes everything.
- The gameplan lacked anticipation ... and maybe that wasn't an accident: The Patriots knew they were playing this game without Gronkowski, yet it appeared as if Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick didn't anticipate how that would change what Miami did defensively from the first matchup two weeks ago. The Patriots looked completely surprised that the Dolphins played so much man coverage and ramped up the blitz. I mean, why wouldn't you do that when you don't have to worry about doubling Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Dwayne Allen and a just-cleared Chris Hogan? Perhaps McDaniels and Belichick didn't care. I mean, I wouldn't blame them. The Miami game essentially meant nothing. Everything is still there in front of them if the Patriots beat the Steelers on Sunday. Why not spend most of your time – if not all of it by recycling the plan from two weeks prior — watching Steelers film and gameplanning for that matchup? Especially since you're going to have one less day of preparation than Pittsburgh because you played on Monday night. But whatever the reason, that was not the normal fastball with movement from McDaniels. It was more like batting practice (and he's not immune to that either).
- Brady wasn't sure what he was going to get: This is related to the previous two points. Without a player to dictate coverage and their normal anticipatory gameplan, Brady wasn't sure where to go with the ball. He usually knows before the snap — the answers to the test again — but against the Dolphins, he was flying by the seat of his pants. We've seen this in other games (most matchups with Rex Ryan's spin-the-dial Jets, the first half of Super Bowl LI when the Falcons played more man coverage, the 2011 loss at Pittsburgh when Dick LeBeau tossed his zone blitz scheme for straight press man coverage) so it's not a totally foreign experience. That's why whether this was a just a bad game has much to do with Mike Tomlin's Steelers. If they come out and play their normal, seen-on-film scheme, the chances are very likely that Brady, with Gronkowski on the field, will continue their dominance against the Steelers. But if they throw a curveball (and many of them at that), then Brady could continue to have issues.
