The loss of Henry Owens this week – claimed on outright waivers by the Arizona Diamondbacks – was largely inconsequential. At 25, Owens had lost his “prospect’’ status long ago and his struggles in the Arizona Fall League last month – WHIP: 1.73 – suggest that he’s not yet conquered his control issues and may never do so.
Owens wasn’t being counted on for 2018 by the Red Sox, and chances are, he never would had much of an impact with the Sox, so his loss is negligible.
But his failure to develop as anticipated – he was a No. 1 pick by the Sox in 2011 – is another stark reminder of the problems the Red Sox have had in developing starting pitching.
For every Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez the Red Sox have scouted, signed and developed, there’s (nearly) a corresponding pitching flop: Owens, Trey Ball, Brian Johnson and Teddy Stankiewicz.
Owens is gone, Johnson is considered a longshot contender for a lefty bullpen spot, Ball is unprotected and available for $50,000 in the Rule 5 draft this Thursday and Stankiewicz, having regressed in his second straight season at Double A this past year, is also a potential Rule 5 pick.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have dealt some promising some young arms away (Anderson Espinoza in exchange for Pomeranz and Michael Kopech as part of the deal to get Chris Sale, for example). The present rotation is a good one – especially if David Price regains his health and previous form, but then, it’s largely come through trade and free agency.
The latter, of course, is a notoriously inefficient path and comes with its own inherent risks.
It’s hard to believe, but true: the last homegrown starter the Red Sox developed was Clay Buchholz, who made his major league debut ten years ago.
Before that? You have to go back to Jon Lester.
How can that be? How can such a disparity exist within the same organization? How can one franchise almost field a starting lineup of homegrown players yet fail to develop a single starting pitcher of note in the last decade?
(The question isn’t hyperbolic: if the Red Sox don’t add a first baseman and enter the season with Hanley Ramirez there, you could make a case that every single position player in the Opening Day lineup by, say, June of next year was signed/drafted and developed by the Sox, since Ramirez was originally a Red Sox international signing. He could be joined by Vazquez behind the plate, Ramirez at first, Dustin Pedroia at second, Bogaerts at short, Devers at third, and Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Betts in the outfield).
Not long after president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was hired, he convened a summit of sorts at the 2015 winter meetings, to address this failure. He involved scouts, development people, and consultants such as Jason Varitek and Pedro Martinez in an effort to fix the problem.
In his second season in the job, Dombrowski made Brian Bannister his vice president of pitching development and subsequently added Dave Bush as his pitching development analyst, as the Red Sox sought to incorporate analytics more into their development program.
It’s only been two years, and young pitching, in particular, takes time to develop, but there’s been little improvement. On the estimable SoxProspects.com, seven of the top 13 prospects in the Red Sox system are starting pitchers, but only two – Johnson, who is 27, and Jalen Beeks – have pitched as high as Double A.
Maybe, in time, the likes of Jay Groome, Bryan Mata and Tanner Houck will develop into high-end starters and be poised to step into the rotation as the Sox face potential free agent losses with Price, Sale and Pomeranz.
But for now, there’s this sobering stat to consider: since 2015, if you subtract Buchholz, the Red Sox have had 33 games started by homegrown starting pitchers, an average of 11 per season. Of those, nine were made by Justin Masterson, who, like Ramirez, was signed and developed by the Red Sox only to be traded away and subsequently returned as a free agent.
Sixteen of those were made by Owens, now gone, and eight were made by Matt Barnes (2) and Johnson (6).
Of the 33 starts, then, not a single one was made by a developed Red Sox pitcher who is still (A) in the system and (B) considered a starting candidate.
As the Red Sox turn their immediate attention to the offensive deficiencies at the major league level this winter, the failure in their ability to develop starting pitching may soon be a bigger threat in their efforts to become championship contenders again.
**********
The Red Sox still have available options to bolster their offense now that Giancarlo Stanton is off the board. But the problem is, there is now more competition for the available bats.
Because the New York Yankees were not thought to be in the market for one of the big bats on the board, their trade for Stanton doesn’t remove a competitor from the list. Instead, the Stanton deal means that two teams who had expected to be in the running for Stanton are now still in need of offense.
Even as the Sox bowed out of the Stanton sweepstakes, the belief was that Stanton would wind up with either St. Louis or San Francisco. But when Stanton voided deals to both teams, he left the Cardinals and the Giants still searching for a hitter.
With a deep farm system, the Cardinals might prefer the trade route and package some prospects for an impact bat.
But because the Giants have so little in their system, their likely path is still free agency.
The Giants have gone over the luxury tax threshold in each of the last three seasons and could dearly use a season in which they come under the threshold to reset their tax rate. But with fan expectations running high and two playoff misses in the last three seasons, the Giants are desperate for improvement and are on record as being willing to go over the threshold again. Not only did they finish 30th in homers last season, but they also finished 29th in runs scored.
When it comes to attracting a top free agent slugger, Fenway Park is a far better hitter’s ballpark than AT&T Park in San Francisco. But as we saw with the Stanton Sweepstakes – and, for that matter, the entire Shohei Ohtani process - predicting a player’s preferences can be an inexact science.
Now that the Yankees have both Stanton and Aaron Judge in the same outfield – to say nothing of Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier, that should rule them out on Bryce Harper, right?
Not necessarily.
Harper, who is eligible for free agency after next season and has been practically fitted for pinstripes in recent years, could still be on the Yankees’ radar, according to his agent, Scott Boras.
“A Bronx opera – the Three Tenors,’’ wrote Boras in an email to The Athletic, "Hal’s genius, vision (a reference to New York owner Hal Steinbrenner).’’
Amazingly, even with the acquisition of Stanton, the Yankees may not go over the luxury tax threshold for 2018. Stanton is set to make $25 million in 2018, but the Marlins’ willingness to throw in $30 million offsets in the deal, brings that number down to $22 million. Then, subtract second baseman Starlin Castro’s $8.6 million, traded to Miami as part of the trade, and the Yankees are adding “only” a little more than $13 million for 2018.
They still have to find somebody to replace Castro at second, and add another starting pitcher, but they have roughly $18 million when all the other salaries, arbitration cases, pension and insurance and other salary obligations are tabulated.
