Note: I've started to work ahead on Steelers' film so I did not have time for a full scouting report this week (given the matchup), but I did watch the Bills' film and talk to a few people. Here are the headlines.
One of the things that stood out in the Bills' 16-10 victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead last weekend was that the Bills played virtually the entire game with their nickel defense, and Kansas City still couldn't run on them, which had been getting gashed on the ground since the trade of DT Marcell Dareus.
Kareem Hunt was held to 17 yards on 11 carries, and when you can't run the ball against subpackages, that means your passing game is going to have a much more difficult time.
We've seen it with the Patriots over the years: when they go against teams that can cover and play coverage, if New England can't run the ball, Tom Brady has a tougher time being as efficient as he would like. In my opinion, if the Bills decide to play nickel against the Patriots, New England has to run the ball and well to make this game comfortable.
A couple things about that:
- While the Bills have some nice players in the secondary who execute coach Sean McDermott's scheme well for the first season in his system — including rookie first-round cornerback Tre’Davious White and free-agent safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde — we're not exactly talking about the Rex Ryan Jets or Wade Phillips Broncos: the teams that gave Brady the most trouble with this formula.
- Since Julian Edelman and, later, Chris Hogan have been out of the lineup, the Patriots have used much less three-receiver sets and have used either 21 (two backs, one tight end) or 12 (one back, two tight ends) as their preferred formations. That may cause the Bills to junk much of their subpackages and play more 4-3.
- The Patriots run the ball much better now. This is a game they should be able to pound the rock and control the game that way.
- The last time McDermott faced the Patriots, he had a lot of success vs. Rob Gronkowski (five catches, 59 yards) in the Panthers' 24-20 victory over New England on Nov. 18, 2013 (with the non-call in the end zone vs. Luke Kuechly). Now, that Panthers defense was a lot more talented, and he was able to play base almost the entire game because his linebackers were Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson. They could all run and defend the pass as well as stop the run. This is a different beast.
- The Patriots actually ran well against the Panthers in that game: 24 carries for 104 yards.
PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Hold the edge: Whether it's on designed read-option plays, or on scrambles, the Patriots' defensive line must stay disciplined in their rush against Tyrod Taylor. The easiest way for the Bills to stay in the game is for Taylor to pickup first downs on the ground.
Tackling McCoy: Between Dion Lewis and LeSean McCoy, this game has the potential for the most missed tackles in league history due to the jitterbug talents of both backs. The Patriots need to be disciplined in their tackling techniques — watch the hips (not the shoulders), tackle through the outside hip — and then rally to the ball because a play is never over with McCoy until he's down.
No big pass plays: Besides his feet, Taylor has good deep touch and that's his bread and butter. Patriots can't let any receivers get behind them. Bills love living off big plays.
PICK
Line: Patriots by 7.5. O/U: 48.5. Season: 9-2, 5-6 ATS.