MLB Notebook: Are Red Sox keeping pace with analytics revolution? Also: Roenicke, qualifying offers and more

It’s difficult to find fault with the Red Sox hiring of Tony La Russa as vice president/special assistant to president of baseball operations this past week. La Russa was a brilliant manager and tactician throughout his long career and his presence can only be a positive influence upon incoming rookie manager Alex Cora.

Importantly, La Russa said all the right things about allowing Cora his own space and not sending mixed messages – to the players and those outside the organization – about who’s in charge in the dugout and in the clubhouse.
But a more troubling story line is emerging throughout the game regarding the Red Sox.  Since Dave Dombrowski’s hiring in August of 2015, the Red Sox have gone from being at the vanguard of the analytics movement to falling behind the competition.

This is precisely what some feared upon Dombrowski’s arrival.  He had earned the reputation as an effective but decidedly “old school’’ executive in Detroit, where the Tigers lagged in adapting to the model so many other successful franchises had embraced.

At his introductory press conference, Dombrowski maintained that he wasn’t philosophically opposed to embracing analytics and noted the Tigers failure to do so was more a matter of resources than his own resistance.

And indeed, Dombrowski has empowered the team’s analytics/data department, ably headed by Zach Scott, and has encouraged its input.

But there’s no denying the exodus of younger front office members – led by Mike Hazen, Jared Porter, and Amiel Sawdaye – from the organization. Meanwhile, Dombrowski’s two most significant hires have been former Braves and Orioles GM Frank Wren and La Russa, two figures who are more closely associated with a more traditional approach to the game.

“It’s kind of shocking,’’ said an evaluator with another organization, observing the Red Sox’ evolution from afar. “They’ve gone from being one the franchises that was ahead of the curve to one that’s one that’s kind of at the back of the pack.’’

That’s not to suggest that Wren and La Russa aren’t useful.  La Russa is a valued voice with lots of success upon which to draw. But at 73, La Russa is obviously -- some would say defiantly -- old school. And when he and his hand-picked GM Dave Stewart tried to take a more traditional approach running the Arizona Diamondbacks, the experiment failed spectacularly.

The best approach for organizations is a blend of the two philosophies, a point pioneered by former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, who managed to utilize analytics and more traditional voices like Bill Lajoie in winning two World Series for the Sox.

Now, however, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way for the Sox. Meanwhile, organizations like the Yankees, who had been somewhat slow to incorporate data in making talent evaluations and roster-building, are now completely on board. Is it entirely a coincidence that this coincides with the quick rebuild the Yankees have accomplished in the last three seasons?

For that matter, take a look at baseball’s Final Four from this year’s post-season. You’d be hard-pressed to find four franchises who have embraced analytics more than the world champion Houston Astros, National League pennant-winning Los Angeles Dodgers and LCS participants Chicago Cubs and the Yankees.

You can argue, if you wish, that too much emphasis on numbers and data has drained some of the soul from the game. Further, the decision by the Astros to lay off a large number of scouts last summer was, despite their championship, ill-advised and short-sighted.

But it’s impossible to argue that the game’s most successful teams are data-driven. The Red Sox, with one post-season win in the last four seasons and a reputation as far from innovative, seemingly have some catching up to do.
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Ron Roenicke has a history with Cora that dates back some two decades.

Roenicke was Cora’s manager at Double A San Antonio in the Los Angeles Dodgers system in 1997, and briefly, at Triple A Albuquerque in 1998. In their first season together, Cora was just 21 years old, but Roenicke sensed something about him.

“I knew he was going to be a heads-up ballplayer,’’ said Roenicke recently.

Soon, they’ll be reunited – Cora as manager of the Red Sox and Roenicke as his bench coach.

Over the years, they’ve remained in contact, and this past season, saw a lot of one another as they competed in the A.L. West. Cora, of course, was the Houston Astros bench coach while Roenicke was the third base coach for the Los Angeles Angels.

“That feeling I had with him, that connection, kind of continued,’’ Roenicke said. “It’s funny how baseball does that to you. You may not see them much for a couple of years, but then you re-connect and it’s like no time has passed.  The people you like and respect, that doesn’t go away.’’

Roenicke was happy with the Angels.  He had been a member of Mike Scioscia’s coaching staff for a dozen years over two different stints and had no desire to leave southern California, where he lives in San Clemente.

“I needed to know on both side what the expectations were,’’ said Roenicke. “I’ve enjoyed my time with Anaheim and (if I left) I wanted to do it for some good reasons. If I come over, I needed to know that I could help somebody. We had a conversation and I knew what he expected and why he wanted me.  I loved everything he had to say.’’

In some ways, beyond their shared history, Roenicke would seem to the perfect choice to pair with Cora. In 2011, when Roenicke was hired to manage the Milwaukee Brewers, he had Jerry Narron as his bench coach. (Narron also had served as Grady Little's bench coach with the Red Sox in 2003).

Narron had managed in the big leagues before (Texas, Cincinnati) and his experience proved invaluable as Roenicke’s bench coach.

“I leaned on Jerry for everything,’’ said Roenicke, “because he had managed before. He was a great bench coach, especially in the National League, because he was so good at running a game.’’

In the American League, Cora won’t have to deal with some of the details a National League manager faces on a daily basis (double switches, hitting for the pitcher, etc), but there’s still plenty Roenicke can off.

“It’s really important to give the manager what he needs so he can think the way he wants to think,’’ Roenicke said. “When you’re a new manager, you really want some help.  (In Milwaukee), I encouraged my coaches to talk to me. I wanted to know for sure that I was doing the right thing. So I had my coaches know that they could say, ‘Hey, why don’t we do it this way instead?’

“(Cora) is always going to have the final decision. But I can give him things that I’ve lived through with other teams, all the different things that come up – How do you deal with your GM on a daily basis? How do you handle an issue with the media? There are all kinds of things. But the most important point is: I trust him and he trusts me.’’

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Monday figures to be an important day for those monitoring the free agent landscape. By 5 p.m. that day, teams have to determine whether to make a qualifying offer to their own free agents. This year, the value of the qualifying offer has been pegged at $17.4 million.

For the Red Sox, there are no hard decisions. None of their free agents – Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Doug Fister, Addison Reed, Blaine Boyer, Rajai Davis, Fernando Abad, Chris Young and Kyle Kendrick – is worth that sort of investment.

But the Sox will be watching the market closely to see what free agents they may have interest in are tagged with the offer.

J.D. Martinez, because he was traded in the middle of the final year of his existing contract, is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That’s one of many reasons why many believe he’s a better investment for the Sox than, say, Eric Hosmer, who will almost certainly be given a qualifying offer by the Kansas City Royals and thus, have compensation attached to his signing.

If the Sox were to sign Hosmer, it would cost them their second-highest draft pick next June, along with $500,000 from their allotment of international bonus pool money.

For a team like the Sox intent on rebuilding its minor league system, losing a pick and a half-million in international free agent pool money would seemingly represent plenty of disincentive to sign a qualified free agent.
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In his introductory conference call with the media Friday, La Russa recalled his time with Dombrowski with the White Sox in the late 1970s.

“He had more guts than brains, is what I remember,’’ said La Russa, with a chuckle. “Early on, in his first year, he was the assistant farm director and about 10 days into spring training, the farm director got an opportunity to go be the general manager of a minor league hockey team and (owner) Bill Veeck and (general manager) Roland Hemond told Dave, ‘You’re now the farm director.’ You would think he would have had the brains to say, ‘No, I can’t do that. You’ve got to get somebody with more experience.’ But Dave said, ‘Hey, I can handle it.’ I thought, ‘He’s got a lot of guts…he’s just not very smart.’ ‘’

Dombrowski, who laughed as the story was being told, issued a minor clarification on the details, noting that it took place 10 days into his second year with the White Sox.

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It’s a small world department: when Roenicke was hired to manage the Brewers starting in 2011, two other finalists for the job were Joey Cora (Alex’s brother) and (gulp) Bobby Valentine…The Red Sox are still in search of a pitching coach at a time when many of the best options – Mike Maddux, Jim Hickey, Chris Bosio among them – have all landed elsewhere. The Red Sox’ hands were tied with Cora being involved in the World Series and unable to devote all of his time to filling his coaching staff.  Sports books in Las Vegas have already established odds for the 2018 season, which seems odd given that off-season trades and free agent signings have yet to commence. But if you’re interested in such things, the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book pegs the Red Sox chances of winning the World Series at 10-1 – with the Dodgers, Indians, Astros, Nationals and Yankees all ranked ahead of them. Bovada.com, meanwhile, has the Sox as 11-1 to win it all…As entertaining as this World Series was, it still doesn’t compare to the 1991 World Series between the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.  In that one, five games were decided by a single run, four were determined in the final at-bat and three went to extra innings…Once again, super agent Scott Boras will be in the middle of much of what goes on this off-season. Boras represents (among others) Martinez, Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jake Arrieta...It’s not official yet, but look for Red Sox pitchers and catchers to report to Fort Myers somewhere around Feb. 14.