Bedard: Will the real Patriots please stand up? Plus, Falcons scouting report, gameplan and pick

Normally in this space, we write about the upcoming opponent for the Patriots. We’ll get to the strengths, weaknesses and insights into the Falcons in a minute, but let’s be honest: tonight’s game isn’t about Falcons.

It’s about the Patriots.

It’s Week 7. It’s Sunday Night Football and a national television audience. The Falcons, the team you just beat to win the Super Bowl, is the opponent and a formidable one at that.

Are the real Patriots going to stand up? Because to this point, with nearly 40 percent of the schedule gone, we have no clue who or what this team is.

The got blasted at home by the Chiefs in the opener. Handled a then-limping Saints squad. Squeaked by the Texans and a rookie quarterback making his second start. Looked totally inept defensively and made Cam Newton look like his former MVP in another home loss. And then followed that with two ugly road wins against the middling Bucs and rebuilding Jets.

Not one impressive win among them. By now, we’ve usually had that, “Oh, right, they’re still the Patriots'' game. Last season, it was the opener in Arizona. In ’15 the Patriots had beaten the Steelers, Cowboys and Colts by now. The Patriots dismantled the Bengals in ’14 after the Monday Night Massacre in Kansas City. In ’13, the Patriots beat the Falcons and Bengals on the road. In ’12, the Patriots beat Peyton Manning and the Broncos at home in Week 5.

When are the real 2017 Patriots going to reveal themselves?

To this point, we know that Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are really good, the Patriots start slow but will mount a comeback and … that’s about it.

I have no clue what to expect tonight.

In the past, I’d wager a small fortune the Patriots, with the doubters taking shots and a big opponent coming into Gillette, would put it all together and remind the nation that the king still resides inside Castle Razor.

I would not be surprised if that happened. This team is still way more talented than they’ve shown on the field. They’ve been a collective disjointed mess (for them) to this point, but as I’m reminded year in and year out covering the NFL: all it takes is one game, one quarter, one series — heck, one play — for everything to click into place for a football team. Then, they take off.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons came in and embarrassed the Patriots. New England, to this point, has been a mediocre football team. They’ve only looked good on offense in spurts. They don’t play smart as a team. There are too many penalties, especially on special teams. And the defense, especially in a largely veteran secondary, has looked at times as if they’ve never practiced together.

That’s not an opinion; those are facts. Even analytics back that up. FootballOutsiders.com has the Patriots as the 15^th-most efficient football team. They’re second in offense, but 32^nd in defense (by a wide margin), and 14^th on special teams.

To this point, this is not your usual Patriots team. Any talk about 19-0 feels like it happened five years ago. As you’ve probably heard, the Patriots are the first team in NFL history to allow 300-yard passers in six straight games at any point in the season. They’ve allowed Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Josh McCown to do it in consecutive weeks. Matt Ryan and his Falcons weapons are by far the best quarterback/talent combination the Patriots have faced to this point. Suddenly, the Patriots are going to stem the tide, without two of their top three cornerbacks (Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe)?

All the data to this point tells us that will not happen. But they’re still the Patriots, so we expect them to.

But are they still the Patriots? We’ll find out tonight.

An in-depth look at the Falcons, with gameplan points and game pick:

OFFENSE

Scheme

After Kyle Shanahan turned his great work with the Falcons and quarterback Matt Ryan into the 49ers’ head coaching job, head coach Dan Quinn hired former University of Washington and USC head coach Steve Sarkisian — whose only previous pro experience was one season (2004) as the Raiders’ quarterbacks coach — as offensive coordinator. They have kept the Shanahan playbook, but they’re obviously missing Shanahan’s brilliant targeted gameplans. They’re also using much less motion and lack the designed plays to scheme certain players open. Falcons are fifth in total yards (378.4), 11^th in rushing (120.6), seventh in passing (257.8), third on third downs (45.45 percent), tied for sixth in red zone (60 percent) and 12^th in points per game (24.2). In ’16, they were second (415.8), fifth (120.5), third 295.3), 11^th  (42.13) , ninth (61.9) and first (33.8).



Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (6-foot-5, 217 pounds) has a rating of 87.3 to this point, which is much closer to his career average (93.4) than his ’16 MVP campaign (117.1). The Boston College product certainly has all the tools, even if he’s lost a little depth and accuracy on his deep passes. He will occasionally rush throws and throw off his back foot, which has contributed to his six touchdowns and six interceptions. He sometimes has trouble knowing and feeling where pressure is coming from. As a result, he will get hit making a throw. … Matt Schaub (6-6, 240) is the backup at age 36. He’s attempted 93 passes (62.4 percent completions, three TDs, six INTs) since the ’13 season.

Receivers

WR1 Julio Jones (6-3, 220, 4.39 40-yard dash): Still among the best receivers in the game, but is constantly battling leg injuries and could depart at any time. Leads team with 25 catches on 37 targets, but just one has been in the red zone to this point. Isn’t working from tighter splits (makes receiver tougher to cover with a two-way go) as much under Sarkisian.
WR2 Mohammed Sanu (6-2, 210, 4.58): Big and physical receiver who is not as reliable catching the ball as Jones. Has also battled injuries. 16 catches/24 targets.
Speed Taylor Gabriel (5-8, 170, 4.3): Speedy receiver who burned Malcolm Butler for big gain in the Super Bowl. Has been featured more by Sarkisian but hasn’t translated: just 168 yards on 14/26 targets.
Slot Justin Hardy (5-10, 192, 4.56): Six catches on 11 targets.
Speed2 Marvin Hall (5-9, 192, 4.40): Caught a touchdown vs. Miami last week in only game action.
TE1 Austin Hooper (6-4, 260, 4.71): Not much of a blocker but will find openings and Ryan will find him. A better athlete than he appears. Targets: 17 of 24.
TE2 Levine Toilolo (6-8, 260, 4.84): Big target with decent hands, but that’s about it. Targets: 3/4.

Running backs

RB1 Devonta Freeman (5-8, 206, 4.54): Well-built player with quickness, vision and home-run ability. Catches the ball well, but can be a liability when asked to pick up blitzers. Has 11 catches in pass game.
RB2 Tevin Coleman (5-11, 206, 4.50): Has big-play ability running and catching but marginal instincts. Primary third-down back. Has 14 catches.
RB3 Terron Ward (5-6, 201): Jitterbug-type back who is tougher than his size and will contribute if called upon.
FB Derrick Coleman (6-0, 233): Is featured (too much) in the run game. Good, solid player that will catch the occasional pass.

Offensive line

LT Jake Matthews (6-5, 308): Above average LT with slow reaction in the pass game and he doesn’t dominate with the run.
LG Andy Levitre (6-2, 305): Smart and physical player but is an average athlete.
C Alex Mack (6-4, 311): Still among the best centers in the game. Very smart and never stops. Has regressed a little setting vs. the pass, and is better on combo blocks than single blocks in the run.
RG Wes Schweitzer (6-4, 300): First-year starter blocks well in the running game but will give up pressure in the pass.
RT Ryan Schraeder (6-7, 300): Not sure if he’s hurt or what, but he’s normally among the best RTs in the game. He has not played to that level this season.

DEFENSE

Scheme

Another first-year coordinator for Quinn, former Packers and Seahawks safety Marquand Manuel took over for Richard Smith, who was let go after the season. Smith was trying to run Quinn’s 4-3 “under” defense with Cover 3 as its primary coverage — same used by the Seahawks — but Manuel has more first-hand knowledge of the scheme. The Falcons are much-improved across the board defensively. Falcons rank 10th in total yards (312.4), 13th in rushing (102.0), 12th in passing (210.4), 13th on third down (38.1), 19th in red zone (57.1) and 13th in points per game (21.8). Last year, Falcons ranked 25^th in total yards (371.2), 17^th in rushing (104.5), 28^th in passing (266.7), 26^th on third down (41.8), 32^nd in red zone (72.7) and 27^th in points per game (25.4).

Defensive line

DE Brooks Reed (6-3, 254): Try-hard, hustle player in pass rush and doesn’t hold edge well in the run.
DT Dontari Poe (6-3, 350): Is not the same dominating player he was with the Chiefs, but he’s still darn good when he wants to be, or his health allows
DT Grady Jarrett (6-0, 305): Small but has really improved against the run, and his quickness is a handful for interior pass blockers.
DE Courtney Upshaw (6-2, 290): Is far from the player he was with the Ravens. Strength can be an issue at times when he kicks inside.
Edge sub Adrian Clayborn (6-3, 280):Still hustles and is strong at point of attack in bull rushes.
Edge sub Takkarist McKinley (6-2, 260, 4.61): First-round pick out of UCLA is developing pass rusher with great motor.
Interior sub Joe Vellano (6-2, 295): The former Patriot is sticking around and doing a little bit of everything in reserve.

Linebackers

SLB Vic Beasley (6-3, 246, 4.52): Missed a lot of time with injuries and doesn’t appear to be a full-time player yet. He’s still mostly speed and hasn’t really developed his pass-rushing techniques. Scary to say for a guy who led league in sacks with 15.5 last season.
MLB Deion Jones (6-1, 230, 4.45): Runs like a safety, hits like a linebacker and very smart. But second-year player is still learning and is prone to misreads and coverage mistakes.
SLB De’Vondre Campbell (6-4, 240, 4.56): Another run-and-hit player who needs more experience to take the next step.
WLB Duke Riley (6-1, 231, 4.60): The third-round pick has been a liability in coveage and the run game.

Secondary

CB Robert Alford (5-10, 186, 4.36): Very fast and has good overall skills, but a tad inconsistent and will get grabby. Been the worst in coverage of the three corners.
CB Desmond Trufant (5-11, 190, 4.43): The best of a young and talented secondary. Good discipline and technique. Spirited.
Slot Brian Poole (5-10, 213, 4.50): Very competitive from the slot and will occasionally blitz.
FS Ricardo Allen (5-9, 192, 4.54): Is really developing into a good player. Reminds of a young Rodney Harrison.
SS Keanu Neal (6-0, 211, 4.63): Plays the role of Kam Chancellor in this defense. Tough, physical and a hard tackler. Plays in box as another linebacker and will matchup with tight ends. Average in coverage.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K Matt Bryant has battled injuries but is solid and is 3 of 4 from over 50. P Matt Bosher has an average of 44.8. Andre Roberts returns punts and kickoffs. Special team coverage units have been putrid to this point.

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

Run the ball: This is a big test for the run-blocking unit. The Patriots knew they had an advantage running the ball on the Falcons in the Super Bowl, but they couldn’t do it. Can they execute with the same line but new backs?

Looks for soft spots: The Falcons surprised the Patriots by playing so much man coverage in the Super Bowl. Expect them to go back to their Cover 3 with man principles. That means the receivers and Tom Brady will have to be on the same page on when to settle into the voids.

When in doubt, feed Gronk: Neal will try to be physical with Gronk, but this game is designed for him, after not playing in Super Bowl. Gronk should have a huge game.

PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

Corral the backs: Not sure how they’re going to do it — green dog blitzes? — but the Patriots need to keep the Falcons backs from getting into space in the pass game. Atlanta has a huge advantage there.



Double Julio, live with the rest: Julio Jones is a unique player and the Patriots can’t let him get off. Look for them to play Johnson Bademosi under Jones with safety help over the top. Let Malcolm Butler take Sanu, and Jonathan Jones will have to take Gabriel.



Pressure on the right side of the Falcons line: Schrader and Schweitzer have struggled this season and that’s the best avenue to get pressure on Ryan. Deatrich Wise and Cassius Marsh need to have good games, or it’s going to be a long night.

PICK

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 56.5. Season: 4-2, 3-3 ATS.

Your guess is as good as mine on this one. Both teams have struggled at times to this point. Figure it will be close in the fourth, when the Patriots find a way to get it done.

Patriots 30, Falcons 27