Patscap Mailbag: Potential releases of Branch and Allen; who goes when players come of IR?

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With Branch's reduced role so far this year, do you see him being cut/traded and if so what would the cap implications be?
(Hamish @Patriots_Fan_)

Since Alan Branch is eligible for termination pay and 1 million of his 2017 salary is fully guaranteed the cap savings from a cut can only come from not being responsible for his $40,625 46-man active roster bonus, his playing time incentives, and maybe his weight bonuses.

Let's look at the salary cap implication of releasing Alan Branch before the Jets game.

Current 2017 Cap Hit
Salary - $1,700,000
Signing Bonus Proration - $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses - $650,000 ($40,625 per game)
Weight Bonus - $400,000
Playing-Time Incentives - $875,000
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$4,075,000

Current 2018 Cap Hit
Salary - $1,700,000
Signing Bonus Proration - $1,000,000
March 2017 Roster Bonus- $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses - $562,500 ($37,500 per game)
Weight Bonus - $400,000
Playing-Time Incentives - $1,150,000
===========
$5,812,500

2017 Cap Hit if Released
Salary - $1,700,000
Signing Bonus Proration - $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses - $162,500 ($40,625 per game for 4 active games)
Weight Bonus - $400,000 (may decrease if Branch did not actually met his weight goal - 4 different weigh-ins worth $100,000 each)
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$3,262,500 - a savings of $812,500 from his current 2017 cap number. Net savings will be less as a player will take his spot on the 53-man roster. If it is a rookie, the savings would be $484,265 as the Pats would be responsible for paying 12/17ths ($328,235) of the rookie's $465,000 salary

2018 Cap Hit if Released before the 2018 League Year begins on March 14
Signing Bonus Proration - $1,000,000
===========
$1,000,000 - a savings of $4,812,500.

The numbers are different if Branch is traded because his new team would then become responsible for his salary.

2017 Cap Hit if Traded
Salary - $500,000
Signing Bonus Proration - $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses - $162,500 ($40,625 per game for 4 active games)
Weight Bonus - $400,000 (may decrease if Branch did not actually met his weight goal - 4 different weigh-ins worth $100,000 each)
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$2,062,500 - a savings of $2,012,500 from his current 2017 cap number. Net savings will be less as a player will take his spot on the 53-man roster. If it is a rookie, the savings would be $1,684,265 as the Pats would be responsible for paying 12/17ths ($328,235) of the rookie's $465,000 salary. The savings from a Branch trade goes down weekly by his $100,000 salary. The savings will also go down if he is active for a game between now and his trade.

Odds that New England signs Cookie to a long-term deal this year/next year?
(Dan Parker @Fineparker89)

By Cookie I am presuming that Dan is referring to Brandin Cooks and not to the lead female character in the TV show Empire :).  Given that any 2017 extension would increase his 2017 cap number and with the Patriots having less than 5 million in cap space, I give a 2017 Brandin Cooks extension very low odds of happening. I give a 2018 Brandin Cooks extension good odds (better than 50-50) of happening before the end of the 2018 League Year

Can the Patriots cut Dwayne Allen next year with $0 dead money?
(Wagner Branco @WagnerSBranco)

Yes. Dwayne Allen has no guaranteed money past the 2017 season.  Releasing Dwayne Allen would free up $4,520,000 in cap space as a player with a $480,000 salary would replace his $5 million cap hit on the Top 51 list.

When does Devin Lucien injury settlement expire? Can he re-sign with the Patriots? PS and roster?
(Colin Brady @qualitysmoke)

After the Jets game for both the 53-man roster and practice squad. Please note that Devin Lucien may not be healthy enough to return to the Patriots. He was waived/injured from the Colts practice squad on October 3rd.

When can players on the IR start practicing? Week 8?
(Nick Sweatt @OVOSweatt33)

They can start practicing after 6 weeks on Injured Reserve. Oct. 16 is the first day that Shea McClellin and Malcolm Mitchell can start practicing. Please note that in order to be eligible to return to the Patriots 53-man roster the Patriots must make that designation after the player's first practice. Nov. 3 is the first day that Vincent Valentine can start practicing. Please note that since only two players can be designated for return so if by the time Valentine is eligible both McClellin and Valentine have been designated Valentine could not return.

Mmm who gets released (to make room for the players designated to return)? My guess is David Harris is the first to go.?
(LI Super Bowl Champs @Strife103)

My guesses are Dion Lewis in a trade and Cole Croston via a cut.

we can only bring two back from IR, correct? who do you see that being? mitchell and whom
Ol'MartyMar @8deepbb
Shea McClellin and Malcolm Mitchell

What about rookie left tackle
(Bart Higgins @bartfhiggins)
Tony Garcia is ineligible to return since he did not make the original 53-man roster. See my article on NFI pay for more details.

What are your thoughts on McClellin vs Van Noy as players? Similar skill set? Does he give the Patriots a LB who can cover?and..how do they compare valuewise?
(Mr.Quindazzi @MrQuindazzi)
Shea McClellin and Kyle Van Noy are similar players in that they can do a little bit of everything as linebackers while also contributing on special teams. Neither of them is strong at pass coverage. If healthy at the same time their versatility would allow the Patriots to show/use pass-rushing/coverage schemes.

2017 Cap Hits
Shea McClellin - $3,290,428
Kyle Van Noy - $2,289,502

2018 Cap Hits
Shea McClellin - $3,383,334
Kyle Van Noy - $4,166,666

2019 Cap Hits
Shea McClellin - Unsigned
Kyle Van Noy - $6,416,668

5 players pats might target w/ trade deadline approaching?
(<<|Cody Cloutier|>> @codeman2323)
Since I have followers who are fans of other NFL teams I ask them for assistance.
1.) 49ers linebacker Aaron Lynch would have a cap hit of $1,268,471 if acquired before the Jets game
2.) Bears linebacker Pernell McPhee would have a cap hit of $6,174,353 if acquired before the Jets game
3.) From @patsplayers - Giants defensive end Kerry Wynn would have a cap hit of $1,268,471 if acquired before the Jets game
4.) From @patsplayers - Giants linebacker Jonathan Casillas would have a cap hit of $2,113,501 if acquired before the Jets game
5.) From @patsplayers - Chargers linebacker Jeremiah Attachu would have a cap hit of $701,407 if acquired before the Jets game

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