With the short week, we're going to skip the meat of scouting report and just get into the gameplan points, which will include the positional notes you need to know. We'll be back on the regular next week.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Stop DT Gerald McCoy: The entire Bucs defensive line is physical and fast, but by far the best player is veteran Gerald McCoy. He usually lines up at right DT — at least he did last week against the Giants — so that means that Joe Thuney and Nate Solder will have their work cut out for them. McCoy is big, long and has unreal power and quickness for a player his size. Even worse, he's very smart. Robert Ayers kicks inside in sub situations and Noah Spence is another pass-rushing force on the right side. Chris Baker, McCoy's running mate on the inside, isn't nearly as quick but he's powerful. Shaq Mason and David Andrews will need to maintain their good pad levels.
Spread them out, pick them apart: The Bucs will be without linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David, and the entire secondary besides veterans CB Brent Grimes is green and suspect, so Tampa is ripe for the picking if the offensive line gives Brady time. RCB Vernon Hargreaves is very talented, but he's playing like a rookie. That means Brandin Cooks should get ample opportunities to continue their burgeoning relationship.
Throw to the backs: With the injury problems at linebackers, Tampa will have to play a lot of new players that will just be trying to get lined up in the right place. Some pick plays looking to spring the backs in the flat could yield an uncovered play or two.
PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Defend the middle of the field: QB Jameis Winston will throw it all over the joint but he loves timing passes, like digs and slants, in the middle of the field (this is part of the reason why DeSean Jackson has just nine receptions on 20 targets on the outside. The coverage drops from the linebackers must be on point, and the safeties can't be afraid or late to come forward on the throws. Would expect the Patriots to play more often with two deep safeties, perhaps two-man (two deep safeties, man coverage underneath).
Make Jameis thread the needle: Ideally, the Patriots need to force Winston to make his money by throwing over the cornerbacks and under the deep safeties. That's the type of coverage where he can get impatient and turn the ball over. Have to take Mike Evans away. He has almost twice as many targets as the next receivers.
Trey Flowers needs to dominate: LT Donovan Smith played very well against the Giants but he's normally one of their weakest links. Smith just doesn't move his feet very well, and he's more of a power blocker. Flowers can make some plays both to the outside and inside of Smith in pass-rush situations. The Patriots will need him to become a star on a national stage.
PICK
Line: Patriots by 4.5. O/U: 55. Season: 2-2, 2-2 ATS.
This feels like a game where the team with the ball last will win as both defenses are in a state of disrepair. Just can't see the Patriots dropping to 2-3. It's time to start playing some ball.
Patriots 37, Bucs 34.