A veteran evaluator outlines the Red Sox' keys to an upset vs. Astros

The Red Sox may be underdogs in their American League Division Series with the Houston Astros but there is a path to victory.

We spoke with a veteran major league scout, one who saw the Red Sox a lot during the regular season, and asked him to highlight five keys for the Red Sox to pull off an upset.

Here’s what he told us:

1. Win Chris Sale’s starts

“You’ve got to win the games Sale pitches. That may seem obvious, but in a short series, it’s even more important. He’s the horse. He’s like (Clayton) Kershaw. He’s been phenomenal. This is why they gave up two great prospects: to pitch in series like this. Now that they’re here, they can’t afford to lose any of his starts. When you have your ace on the mound, you have to win. It’s psychologically damaging when you don’t.

2. Get the ball and the lead to the bullpen.

“If they (the Red Sox) have the lead after six, good luck. They have a lot of flexibility with that bullpen now. They can go hitter-to-hitter in the sixth inning. Then, they can go with (David) Price and (Addison) Reed and then (Craig) Kimbrel.

“Watching Price the last few times, if he’s able to do that in the postseason, he may be a big difference-maker. Get your starter to give you five, and then there’s your multi-inning lefty. They can do what Cleveland did last year (with Andrew Miller) – give me five good ones from the starter and then let the best relievers take over.

“I think Price may be the biggest player in the series. If any of (their starters) have trouble in the fourth or fifth, Price can come in and give them two or three innings. He was 95-98 mph with his fastball and he’s got four quality pitches. He’s the wild card. If you have a guy like that, you have a No. 1 arm in the fifth-sixth-seventh innings.

“In the postseason, you don’t need your fifth starter, or the last few guys in the pen. They won’t even pitch unless you’re in a blowout one way or another. You’re getting the best of the best and with that bullpen, you have a lot of options. That pen could be scary good one. That shortens the game."

3. The best hitters have to produce.

“Offensively, it’s hard to score in the playoffs, so you have to get production from your best hitters. They don’t have (David) Ortiz anymore, so guys like (Mookie) Betts have to come up big. That means coming up with some big two-out hits and piecing together some longer innings.

“They had chances in the first two games against Cleveland last year and couldn’t produce the big hit. That has to change. And it’s got to come from the guys in the middle of the lineup.’’

4. Keep running the bases aggressively.

“I know the Red Sox don’t hit a lot of homers, but you’re not going to hit 11 homers in the series. You might hit three, so it’s when you hit them.  I don’t see a lot of runs being scored in this series, as good as the offenses are. I think 4-3 would almost be a high-scoring game.

“Creating runs is huge and they know how to do it. I saw Betts score from first on a double last week. They need to keep doing that. With the advance reports, they know you’re running. The pressure to field the ball, make the good throw… that can wear on a team. If they’re going to win it, they have to steal one or two runs by being aggressive. I see a lot of one-run games, and (being aggressive) can make the difference.

“They can’t afford to get behind early, because not only do they not have the big boppers to catch up with one swing, but when you’re behind, it’s much harder to be aggressive on the bases.

5. The Red Sox had an edge defensively and that could be huge.

“(Andrew) Benintendi, JBJ (Jackie Bradley Jr.) and Mookie – who has a better outfield than that? No one that I can think of. That outfield is phenomenal. They can catch everything and they can throw. It’s an elite group. They can save runs, make great catches and they can throw. If you want to take an extra base on them, go ahead and see what happens.

“They don’t have any real holes defensively. They catch the ball, they can turn the double play. They’re really solid. The last thing you want to do in the postseason is give the other team extra outs; the Red Sox don’t do that.’’