Projecting the Red Sox' ALDS 25-man roster, lineup

At this point, the process by which the Red Sox will choose their 25-man roster for the American League Division Series is a bit like the NCAA Tournament selection committee: virtually every day, the choices evolve and are constantly being updated.

Health status, performance, changing roles – they all enter into the equation.

The Red Sox front office, manager and coaching staff spent Tuesday morning and afternoon discussing their thoughts. There will be several more gatherings before the final roster is established.

As of today, the Red Sox would be the No. 3 seed in the AL and matched up against the Houston Astros, although Houston is still within striking distance of the top-seeded Cleveland Indians.

Here’s a look at where things stand with the Red Sox roster with just over a week to go:

STARTING ROTATION (4)

Chris Sale
Drew Pomeranz
Rick Porcello
Eduardo Rodriguez

OUT
Doug Fister

The first two, naturally, are set. Not long ago, it seemed Doug Fister was too, but two poor outings in a row have put his spot in jeopardy. Although Fister owns the only postseason wins from among this group, he has not helped himself this month.

Two starts and 11 runs allowed over six innings are ominous enough. But there’s also the matter of giving up runs in the first inning in each of his last six starts. That’s troubling enough during the regular season, but it can be downright disastrous in a short postseason series.

BULLPEN (8)

LOCKS (6)
Craig Kimbrel
Addison Reed
David Price
Carson Smith
Joe Kelly
Robby Scott

LIKELY (2)
Brandon Workman
Austin Maddox

OUT (6)
Roenis Elias
Heath Hembree
Blaine Boyer
Fernando Abad
Matt Barnes
Hector Velazquez

John Farrell acknowledged that, while the team had initially expected to go with seven relievers (thanks to the format which includes two off-days), the Sox are now re-considering and likely to go with eight, as they’ve done for much of the season.

Kimbrel, Reed and Price are locks. Smith, now that he’s shown himself to be healthy, is another. Scott makes it as the situational lefty. Kelly has adapted well to the bullpen, and brings velocity and the ability to pitch multiple innings.

Workman and Maddox aren’t guaranteed anything, but the latter has thrown himself into the conversation with 12 straight scoreless appearances to start his major league career. Workman had been thought to be a lock, but he’s slipped some (3.38 ERA) in September, making his inclusion somewhat less certain.

CATCHERS (2)

LOCKS (2)
Christian Vazquez
Sandy Leon

OUT (1)
Blake Swihart

Vazquez has emerged as the starter, though Leon will continue to catch Sale.

INFIELDERS (7)

LOCKS (7)
Mitch Moreland 1B
Hanley Ramirez DH/1B
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Xander Bogaerts SS
Rafael Devers 3B
Eduardo Nunez UT
Brock Holt UT

ON THE BUBBLE (2)
Deven Marrero
Sam Travis

OUT (1)
Tzu-Wei Lin

Health enters into the equation at least a little. Nunez has yet to return after missing nearly two weeks with a knee sprain, though he’s expected back in the lineup over the next few days. Ramirez showed signs of life at the plate Wednesday with two doubles and a single, evidence that perhaps his shoulder is improving.

There are questions now about Devers and his reliability at third, with five errors in his last five starts. Would the Sox consider taking Marrero purely as a late-inning defensive replacement at third base over an eighth bullpen arm?

Holt hasn’t hit all year, but he’s lefthanded and his versatility probably spares him.

Travis could be an intriguing option if the Sox opted for just seven relievers, serving as a right-handed, pinch-hitter. He’d essentially take the spot of Chris Young, who, for now, is probably on the outside looking in.

OUTFIELDERS (4)

LOCKS (3)
Andrew Benintendi
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Mookie Betts

ON THE BUBBLE (2)
Rajai Davis
Chris Young

Which do the Sox value more – Davis’s speed, or Young’s experience and leadership?

Davis has been used sparingly since Bradley returned from the DL, but he was acquired with the express purpose of having a pinch-runner available off the bench in the playoffs. Young is hitting under .200 against lefties, which puts him at risk of being edged out by Travis. It may be difficult to leave Young off the roster, however, given his status and standing with his teammates over the last two seasons.

GAME 1 LINEUP PROJECTION

1. Eduardo Nunez, DH: A key to the offense and the most consistent member of the lineup since his arrival.
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B: He’s held up well since his return from a second DL stint to his knee.
3. Andrew Benintendi, LF: Locked in as the No. 3 hitter and improving in left field.
4. Mookie Betts, RF: A strong September has the Sox hoping he could be The Man in October.
5. Hanley Ramirez 1B: He’ll need to play some first down the stretch to show his shoulder/biceps can handle the assignment in the playoffs
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS: Better at-bats of late.
7. Rafael Devers, 3B: The power has disappeared for now, and, of course, the errors are troubling.
8. Sandy Leon, C: Has become a non-entity at the plate, but pairs well with Sale, earning him the Game 1 nod.
9. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF: If he never got on base again, he’d be worth it for his glove.

SP: Chris Sale