Examining lineup possibilities, Part 1

The Celtics underwent a pretty significant roster overhaul during the offseason, particularly for a team that won 53 regular season games in 2016-17. With nine new players in the fold, Brad Stevens will have to experiment with a variety of new faces in the rotation once training camp kicks off next month. One of the first riddles the coach will have to solve: What starting lineup should he go with?

With Avery Bradley and Amir Johnson off to Detroit and Philadelphia respectively, there will be at least two new players in the opening night starting five come October, and potentially three, depending on how the team elects to use Jae Crowder moving forward. Gordon Hayward, Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas are obviously locks for three of the five spots in the starting unit, but after that the options are plentiful and less clearcut. Will Stevens elect to go big up front with Aron Baynes or shift Horford to center full time? Who gets to start next to Thomas in the backcourt? Will the Celtics opt to start games with small ball?

There are a lot of possibilities to consider, and over the next few weeks of the offseason, I will be periodically breaking down a few of the more intriguing starting lineup units that Stevens may consider. I’ll analyze some of the potential pros and cons of each grouping and take a stab at just how likely we are to see each on opening night in October. With that in mind, let’s take a look at option 1:

The "Going big" lineup

PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Gordon Hayward
SF: Jae Crowder
PF: Al Horford
C: Aron Baynes

Pros

Shooting almost everywhere: The Celtics starting lineup was strong offensively (113.7 offensive rating) for most of last season. On paper, this group is even better. Thomas and Hayward would split up shot creation and ball handling responsibilities, while Horford and Crowder loom as above-average shooting threats from the perimeter at their positions. Baynes doesn’t have 3-point shooting range, but Johnson didn’t really either most nights. Baynes’ midrange shot is respectable, and he can hit the offensive glass hard too. With Hayward taking some pressure off of Thomas, the floor would be spread incredibly well for a lineup with two traditional bigs.

Size almost everywhere: Ok, the Celtics are never going to have size everywhere with Thomas in the backcourt, but this comes pretty close. Horford doesn’t have to battle with true bigs for 48 minutes a night (just during small-ball lineups later in games) as Baynes takes that onus off of him there. Meanwhile, Hayward (6-foot-8) and Crowder (6-6) are essentially interchangeable at the wing spots. Horford may have to chase around some stretch 4s (power forwards) on the perimeter, but he’s still agile enough to handle those responsibilities most nights.

Defensive rebounding shored up: The Celtics are still never going to be a great rebounding team, but this lineup could actually help them become respectable. At age 30, we might see some regression from Baynes on the glass, but he will certainly be better than Johnson (Baynes grabbed 1.3 more defensive rebounds per 36 minutes than Johnson in 2016-17) right away. Horford’s rebounding numbers continued to dip last year, but he’s still serviceable as your second best rebounding big on the floor. Crowder and Hayward are both above-average rebounders for their positions as well, so the days of the Celtics routinely getting demolished on the offensive glass could fade with this unit.

Cons

Who guards tough opposing point guards? This is going to be an issue with most lineups now that Bradley has moved on, but it’s an especially worrisome concern with this grouping, since that responsibility would fall primarily on Thomas. Hayward can defend some shooting guards, but asking him to cover any tough point guard is definitely a reach at his size. With so many elite point guards around the league right now, it could hurt Thomas on the offensive end if he is forced to chase around those talents for big minutes.

Athleticism issues? This was one thing clearly lacking against the Cavs last postseason, and this unit wouldn’t do much to improve things. Baynes and Horford are both over 30 and could struggle against more mobile frontcourts that can shoot from distance. Crowder has never been known for his athleticism, while Hayward can show flashes. Against a fast paced, uptempo offense, I could see this unit having trouble keeping up on the defensive end.

Verdict: Will we see it on opening night?

Personally, I like this unit a lot, but the cons it presents might be tough to overcome. Hayward has only played 9 percent of his NBA minutes at shooting guard, and it’s tough to expect him and Thomas to defend elite starting backcourts around the league on a nightly basis. On the flip side, this is probably the best offensive lineup the Celtics can run out there with Horford at the 4 (which should be appealing), and that’s why I do think Stevens will give this lineup some run in the preseason to find out if it can work. If Thomas doesn’t get burned too much by opposing point guards, it could stand a fighting chance.