FINAL: Bengals 22, Patriots 18 - After furious comeback, Stevenson fumble costs NE game

Patriots were god-awful in the first half in all three phases and trailed 22-0 at halftime.

After the break, the defense (Marcus Jones pick-6) and offense came alive and, after Matthew Judon forced a Ja'Marr Chase fumble late, appeared poised to walk off with a win.

But Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled at the Bengals' 8-yard line with 59 seconds left, and the Patriots were done.

They dropped to 7-8 on the season.

Regular-season Game #15: Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7), 1 p.m.
Location: Gillette Stadium.
TV: CBS/WBZ-4. Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Charles Davis (color), Evan Washburn (sideline).
Radio: 98.5-FM The SportsHub in Boston. **Bedard will be on the postgame show approximately one hour after the game.**
Online: Live Box | Bengals media notes | Patriots media notes | Flipcard
BetOnline.ag Latest Line: Bengals -3. o/u 42.
AccuWeather forecast: Frigid, windy.

LAST WEEK

Raiders 30, Patriots 24: I think we know what happened there.

Bengals 34, Bucs 23: Cincinnati overcame a 17-point deficit to win their sixth-straight game. Joe Burrow finished 27 of 39 for 200 yards and an interception. After being outgained 261 yards to 83 while running just 20 plays to Tampa Bay’s 40 in the first half, the Bengals scored on drives of 13, 31, 13 and 39 yards thanks to Bucs turnovers after halftime.

STATS

FOOTBALLOUTSIDERS.COM BREAKDOWN

ROSTER MOVES

• Patriots placed LS Joe Cardona on IR and signed LS Tucker Addington to the 53-man roster.
• Patriots elevated K Tristan Vizcaino and TE Scotty Washington to the active roster from the practice squad.
• Bengals TE Hayden Hurst (calf) has been downgraded to out.
• Bengals elevated CB Allan George from the practice squad.

INJURY REPORT

PREGAME READING/LISTENING

@athleticgreens Podcast & Video: Bedard Patriots Pod - On Mac, Burrow and confidence in what's around you
Completed Q&A: Bedard on Raiders fallout, Patriots-Bengals 12.23.22
Bedard's Breakdown: Belichick's Patriots losing situationally to McDaniels' Raiders also stunning
@athleticgreens Podcast & Video: Bedard Patriots Pod - A new low in loss to Raiders
Bedard: 3 Sequences to a debacle - Goal line offense, situational defense, final drive are epic fails
Bedard: When you lose a possible season-killing game like the Patriots did in Vegas, everyone gets the blame

A closer look at the matchup and our game pick:

OVERALL WEIGHTED DVOA: Bengals 5th, Patriots 13th

OFFENSE

Bengals DVOA: 2nd overall, 9th pass, 6th rush
Patriots D: 2nd overall, 3rd pass, 9th rush

DEFENSE

Bengals DVOA: 12th overall, 11th pass, 16th rush
Patriots off: 26th overall, 24th pass, 21st rush

SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA

Patriots 20th, Bengals 18th.

MATCHUP ADVANTAGES

RT Conor McDermott vs. LE Joseph Ossai: Patriots are getting a bit of a break as Sam Hubbard, who leads the team in sacks and is second in pressures, is out. Ossai is a second-year player who hasn't done much. McDermott has struggled but this has to be a win for the Patriots.

WR Nelson Agholor vs. CB Eli Apple: The Bengals don't have great corners on either side, and Agholor has the best matchup.

TE Hunter Henry vs. SS Vonn Bell: Bell is more of a hitter than cover guy, and he takes risks. Patriots should be able to pop a couple there, if they even try for a change.

DT Christian Barmore vs. LG Cordell Volson: The Big Fella looked good in his return last week, and he should absolutely feast against this fourth-round rookie.

ED Matthew Judon vs. RT La'el Collins: Collins is really slow these days and begging to be beaten.

S Kyle Dugger vs. TE Mitchell Wilcox: Hayden Hurst is out, so the underwhelming Utah product should get most of the snaps. Beware a Devin Asiasi revenge game!

MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES

DT DJ Reader vs. LG Cole Strange: Reader is one of the best run stuffers in the game. David Andrews is going to have to give him a lot of help.

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. Jack Jones/Marcus Jones: Chase is one of the best receivers in the game with deep speed, and the ability to take a slant to the house. This is a handful for a pair of rookies.

RBs Joe Mixon/Samaje Perine vs. Patriots LBs: These guys are both impressive whether they're running the ball or, more importantly in the pass game. They are a tough matchup.

LBs Germaine Pratt/Logan Wilson vs. RB Rhamondre Stevenson: The Raiders had no linebackers, the Bengals have two of the best. The Patriots will find some tough sledding running the ball and with their screen game.

QB Joe Burrow vs. Steve Belichick: Burrow is smart, clutch and accurate. He has the ability to make coverages look silly.

GAME PLAN POINTS

1. Play into the weather: This isn't quite going to be Buffalo last year, but it will be pretty close. Clamp down on the run, make them beat you through the wind.

2. Pummel this line: The Bengals largely stink on the offensive line. The Patriots can't cover all the Bengals' weapons. You have to make Burrow throw it quick and short, and make him know you are there from the jump.

3. Stay with the run: Bengals are tough to run against, but the Patriots can't start throwing the ball all the time. Need to level body blows repeatedly, hope the weather keeps the game close.

4. Be the mentally tougher team: Patriots are at home, they have to have one mistake-free game where the penalties are limited, and they win the turnover battle.

GAME PICK

BetOnline.ag Latest Line: Bengals -3. O/U: 42.

Bedard's record: 12-2 straight up, 11-3 vs. spread

This weather is going to help the Patriots and keep the score low — which we all know they need. I just think, at the end of the day, the Bengals and Burrow are just a little tougher, and they have too many ways to score. The Patriots do not.

Bedard's Pick: Bengals 23, Patriots 13.