Final: Celtics 125, Mavericks 112 - 3-pointers fall, stars shine in win over Doncic, Mavs

Game 18: Celtics (-4.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m., TD Garden, ESPN/NBCS Boston

Injuries: 

Boston: Danilo Gallinari, Robert Williams, Jayson Tatum (questionable, ankle)Dallas: Maxi Klieber (doubtful, back), Spencer Dinwiddie (questionable, shoulder)

Mavericks probable starters: Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock

Refs: Josh Tiven (#58), Michael Smith (#38), Matt Myers (#43)

A little something about the game: Everyone is girding themselves for the Luka killer shot, which he constantly seems to hit against the Celtics. If there's a last possession and a chance to win the game, you can bet there will be an “oh no, not again” feeling in the crowd before the shot is even taken. The Mavs are 1-4 on the road and they could be without two rotations players. Meanwhile Jayson Tatum is listed as questionable after turning his ankle against Chicago. He finished that game will undoubtedly push to play.

How Boston wins: The Mavs tend to get up for good competition but then they lost to the Nuggets without Nikola Jokic, so maybe Tatum sitting out will get Dallas to relax a bit too much. Boston has plenty of firepower to win without Tatum right now, so that would be a big mistake for the Mavs. 

Regardless, the Mavs are a tough team with the 10th ranked offense and 4th ranked defense, so it will be tough to score. The Celtics are not going to be able to rely on the 3-pointers this time around because the Mavs allow the fewest 3-point attempts in the league. To win, the Celtics will have to attack closeouts and have good off-ball movement to set themselves up for backdoor cuts and putbacks. 

How Dallas wins: Obviously, Dallas will win the same way they always win: with Doncic being special. There's also an opportunity for Christian Wood to go at Boston’s bench bigs. He’s too much to ask Horford to handle, so that will put the onus on someone like Luke Kornet to do the job. Boston could also decide to switch up the starting lineup in this game to better match up Grant Williams against Wood and see if that works. Derrick White can matchup against Finney-Smith and dare a questionable 3-point shooter to take shots, or try to bait him into offensive fouls in the post. Either way, I'd rather have White baiting Finney-Smith into searching for his offense than have Doncic or Wood ripping the C's to shreds.

Dallas mirrors Boston in a lot of ways. They make a lot of 3-pointers in their wins, too iso in losses, and can be prone to bad turnovers and giving up offensive rebounds. Boston is deeper and has more supplementary firepower than Dallas, so a bad Luka night is harder to make up for.

Things I’m looking for:

- Attack Christian Wood: With Klieber out, this could be a big minute game for Wood. He’s a dangerous offensive player, but he’s a defensive liability. Play him off the floor by driving Jason Kidd nuts as Wood gets targeted over and over again. 

- Big Jaylen Brown performance: This could be a big mid-range game, so this is shaping up to be a potentially big one for Brown. He’s shooting 59.6% in the mid-range, better than the mid-range masters we know like DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Dejounte Murray, and Brandon Ingram. He’s only taken 47 in that range, though, less than half those other guys, so maybe there is some -- ahem -- middle ground for him to take more of these when they're open rather than force things at the rim. Instead of getting too deep and trying to make a play against two or three guys, It’s fine for Jaylen to pull up from 15. That's a good shot for him, and he makes it at a high enough rate that it remains efficient.

He’s coming off another big turnover game, so I think he has some extra motivation at home to show something. 

- Minutes distribution: Can the Celtics find a way to keep guys’ minutes in check? Can they do enough early to eliminate the possibility of that Luka game-winning situation? I discussed the concerns about the minutes with Tom Westerholm on the latest Locked On Celtics podcast: 

Follow along below or in the comments during the game, chime in, and let’s have fun.