Game 5 Final: Bucks 110, Celtics 107 - C's fall apart down the stretchy

ROUND 2, GAME 5
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks 
Series tied 2-2
TD Garden
7:00 PM - TNT

PROBABLE STARTING LINEUPS

Boston: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Grant Williams

Milwaukee: Jrue Holiday, Wesley Matthews, Grayson Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

- Robert Williams is officially listed as questionable out tonight. 

"He’s going through some general soreness," Ime Udoka said before the game. "The swelling went down and that’s why we were hopeful for tonight with the swelling getting better over the last two days. But he still has some soreness and just gonna be overly cautious obviously coming off of surgery until it’s a pain-free, rest until he’s ready."

Grant Williams will get the start, even though he had a couple of rough games in Milwaukee. The Celtics will use his strength to wear Antetokounmpo down, and then they can go to the guard-heavy lineup against a gassed Bucks team. 

"You saw last game we could downsize it or stay big, so we feel comfortable with that versatility-wise to go either lineup," Udoka said.  "We liked what Derrick was doing and how he was attacking ... so obviously stressed that a little bit with their bigs out there, opened some things up driving the lane wise, but not a whole lot different than what Grant brings as far as stretching the court. So just another guy to attack and Derrick was extra aggressive so, we needed that."

As of now, Williams' knee flare up seems to be a day-to-day thing. 

"It's not unexpected coming out of surgery," Udoka said. "When you increase your minutes, at some point, you'll have some soreness or possibly flare-up. I think the three days off in between, he had soreness after certain games, but you get that extra rest time. Now, with every other night, we'll be more conscious if he has any kind of pain or swelling, which the swelling went down. We'll hold him out until he's ready."

- George Hill is probable for Milwaukee. He is experiencing some soreness after his abdominal strain. Khris Middleton remains out with the left knee MCL sprain. 

- Boston is favored by 5.5

GOING A LITTLE DEEPER

- The Al Horford effect

It’s obvious that Mike Budenholzer had decided that he’d live with Horford beating them in this series. Horford has beaten him once, and if Tatum had been on point at all in Game 3, it could have been twice. 

So the question for tonight is whether the Bucks are willing to do it again. 

Do they dare Horford to keep hitting 3-pointers, or does Budenholzer change his lineup or scheme to account for Horford’s impact? 

If they continue to dare Horford to beat them, then you can expect the same heavy diet of pick-and-pops that has hurt Milwaukee all series long. It’ll be up to Horford to keep burying those shots. 

If they change their lineup or defensive strategy, or if they go to some in-game adjustments to try to slow him down, that's where things open up for the Celtics. 

Part of why Horford is so open is the attention being paid to Tatum and Brown. When Horford is setting his picks for Tatum, both guys are going to Tatum and leaving Horford all alone. If the play is run with some floor spacers out there, Horford can basically get warm up-level shots whenever he wants.

“They're guarding him with a specific way,” Udoka said after Game 4. “Anytime you have Lopez that far back in the drop, we can literally run a pick-and-pop anytime we want and get a wide open 3 at least.”

I think Udoka specifically said that part out loud because he wants Budenholzer to know that this is a weapon the Celtics are comfortable using and that will be deployed throughout the game. Udoka’s message to the Bucks is sort of ‘you’re daring him to shoot, but we’re daring you to stop him.’ 

There is also a natural tendency on the floor to break ranks when a guy has it going. The more Horford hits, the more someone on the Bucks is going to think “ok, enough is enough,” and at least hesitate enough to give Tatum or Brown (or Smart, or Derrick White) an opening. All Boston needs is a few of those openings and they can build themselves a lead.

The Bucks have struggled to close out games, which is why Boston was able to come back in both Games 3 and 4. If the Celtics can ride Horford to an early lead, they might be able to enjoy another comfortable win at home and take command of this series. 

I dig deeper into the Al Horford effect on the latest Locked on Celtics podcast. You can watch below, or subscribe wherever you get podcasts. 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR

1. Attacking the rim: One of the things at the end of Game 4 that aided Boston was some confidence that they could attack the rim and actually score there. Lopez has been a really good rim defender in general and in this series, but there are ways to attack him. 

Attacking the rim also has a cumulative impact on these guys. While attacking is generally aimed at scoring, the drive/kick/second attack/kick constantly has guys changing directions and getting tired. 

“But we like to … not just let Giannis and those guys roam on the weak-side. We want to put them into the action and make them guard,” Udoka said. “They're doing a lot, getting 32 shots and playing 41 minutes takes a toll on you alone. But we want to put them in actions and make them work and not let them rest on the defensive end."

2. Grant Williams playing within himself: He was effectively benched for the whole fourth quarter (minus 19 seconds where he had time to make one last bad defensive play). He tried to do way too much in both road games, and might have been feeling himself a little bit heading into Game 3. 

Every once in a while a little humbling will do a guy some good. With Williams, it’s simply a matter of shooting the open 3-pointers, attacking those overly aggressive closeouts, and moving the ball if nothing is there. It’s that simple. 

If he tries to do too much, he pulls his talent a little too thin. And that's not to say that he can’t do some of these things he’s trying someday, maybe even next season, but for now his role is very clearly defined. Shoot, drive against a closeout, pass if the shot isn’t there. 

Defensively, he CANNOT get caught up in the officiating. He’s letting that get to him a little too much. The Celtics cannot lose focus in transition or they will get trampled. 

3. Protect the ball: There are two numbers that I’ll look at and know Boston won without knowing the final score: Antetokounmpo’s assists, and transition points allowed. Both are tied to one another. 

The Celtics did a good job limiting the turnovers in Game 4, committing only 11, but they gave up 17 points off those turnovers. 

If Boston keeps that number to less than 15, then Antetokounmpo won’t be getting more than 5 assists in the game. If he has fewer than 5 assists, the Celtics will win going away. 

It all starts with limiting those turnovers and valuing each possession. It kind of goes hand-in-hand with Grant Williams playing within himself. If players try to do too much, or if they go for big knockout punches, they will give up these turnovers and transition points. 

Limiting the turnovers means limiting the Giannis assists, which means limiting the ulcers created by games that are way too close. 

GAME THREAD

Stick around for more comments below as the game goes on. Feel free to add your two cents in the comments.