To be clear, no, I don't have anything against Drake Maye. There's no vendetta here. I'm a curious person — and, yes, a natural-born cynic — and when I have questions, I seek out answers, or at least indicators.
Maye ripped through, in my opinion, a poor pass defense for the Raiders, and it felt a lot like last season. But was that true? That, of course, led me down a rabbit hole to see if Maye's splits against good and poor pass defenses were consistent with other quarterbacks. They were not. In the most important passing categories (passer rating, EPA/DB and PFF passing grade), Maye was a distant third to Matthew Stafford and Jared Allen.
But that doesn't mean all the numbers were bad for Maye, far from it. And there's something in this year's schedule that should be met with some excitement.
The good:
• Maye's completion percentage over expected as a) WAY better than Stafford and Allen against the bottom half, and b) better than both against the top half. That shows elite accuracy against everyone, even though Maye finished third in big-time throw percentage against the top (again, he was way better than the other vs. the bottom), which negated that a little. I would read it as this is where Maye's elite deep ball accuracy shows up. I would argue he's the best in the league again, now that he's gotten off the mat.
• Maye's completion percentage, adjusted completion percentage, and yards per attempt against the top teams were second behind Allen. Those are significant stats and a good indicator for the future.
• Maye's touchdowns (better) and interceptions (same) were comparable to Allen.
Clearly, the areas where Maye has the most work to do are with interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. In my opinion, this is where Maye's lack of experience compared to Stafford and Allen shows up. I don't think he's just a natural-born turnover factory. And while some of the sacks are on Maye (he led the league with 26 sacks on the quarterback in PFF's grades - my stats were similar), improved offensive line play and more dangerous weapons (can get rid of the ball more quickly) will lead to improvement with each passing season.
I also looked a little closer at where these quarterbacks rank against elite pass defenses by DVOA, and I drew the line at 10. Again, Stafford clearly came out the best, with 11 first-place finishes in the 16 categories I looked at.
Maye didn't have any first-place finishes, but he was second in four categories (CPOE, completion %, adjusted completion %, yards per attempt, and TDs). So Maye is far from subpar against the best defenses.
If I were a somewhat objective fan — and you are certainly entitled to have whatever opinion you want, including, "You suck Bedahd!" — this is where I would say, "Ok, this is where Maye is today, entering Week 6. That's fair. Maybe he's not truly elite yet. But I think I should be excited because a) he's only 24, b) he hasn't had the line Allen has had, and b) he doesn't have the weapons that Stafford has had."
I would agree with that. Maye is just 24, he's only played in Josh McDaniels' system for 26 games, and he's barely played with A.J. Brown yet.
And here's the other thing I would be excited about: The closing schedule.
Why?