There were two facts that came out of the Patriots' 45-17 blowout win over the Raiders when it comes to Drake Maye:
1. Maye graded out the highest in his career.
He had 16.5 plus plays, and just three minus plays. He had zero "bad" throws, and there was only one minus decision. Maye was simply outstanding in both his execution and decision-making (he had two plus plays for throwaways). It's amazing that the performance came just two games after his career-worst grade against the Jaguars.
2. The performance came against a Raiders pass defense that is now 25th in pass DVOA, which is opponent-adjusted and changes by the week as more games are played and more data is available. Yes, the Raiders entered the game 3-1. Their three wins have come against teams (Dolphins, Chargers, Saints) that are now 1-14 combined.
So I asked myself: Does it mean anything that Maye played great against a subpar pass defense? Is that what happened last year, and then we saw what happened in the postseason? I really didn't know the answer. So I compared my grades for Maye against how the teams ranked in pass DVOA. I didn't know where to cut it off, so I just went with the top half (16) and the bottom half. Interestingly enough, Maye had 13 starts against each half. The difference was stark. Maye ended up with a net -41 in my grades against the top, and +43 against the bottom.
Even with that data, I wasn't sure what it meant. I know Maye was definitely capable of playing well against the top half, as he graded well against the Browns (9th) and the Bills (12th, in the first matchup) last season. He's also graded poorly against the bottom half (Steelers this year, Bengals last year).
I think you could say the indication is that Maye — who is still very young and early in his career, obviously — has his best games against the bottom, and has a tougher time against the top.
That led some callers to Felger & Mazz, and also some on X, to ask a very legitimate question: How does that compare to other top quarterbacks? It makes sense that even good quarterbacks would struggle against the best defenses, and they would have an easier time against lesser units.
So I went down a rabbit hole over the last 24 hours (hence the late post) to answer it. I realize that this is mostly a fruitless exercise. If the numbers don't come out well for Maye, it will be easy for some to dismiss them for any number of reasons they think are valid (lack of supporting cast, scheme, offensive line, injury, etc.). It is what it is. I decided it was worth the exercise and worth discussing.
I decided to compare Maye to Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen. Even though my grades factor in Maye's scrambling ability, I decided to take that out of the equation because it's not fair to Stafford, an older pocket quarterback. Plus, I think when it comes to winning championships (when you have to go through the best defenses), a quarterback's ability to operate from the pocket and throw the ball becomes paramount. That being said, I included the athletic Allen to give Maye a fairer comparison.
Maye had 13 starts against the top 16 pass defenses in DVOA (8.9 average ranking), and 13 starts against the bottom (25.8 average ranking).
Stafford had 11 starts against the top (5.5 average ranking - faced #1 Seattle three times, #2 Houston, #3 49ers this season), 14 against the bottom (23.4 average ranking).
Allen had 11 starts against the top (9.7 average), 12 against the bottom (24.5).
Just from that alone, Stafford faced a tougher top half than Maye, and Allen was last. Stafford also faced a slightly tougher bottom half.
I used the following stats:
• CPOE: Completion percentage over expected (NextGenStats). A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage (Completion Probability: The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.)
• Big-time throw percentage (PFF)
• Turnover-worth play percentage (PFF)
• The difference between BTT and TWP
• Expected points added per dropback
• Regular stats: completions, attempts, completion percentage, yards, TDs, INTs, yards per attempt, rating, sacks, fumbles
• Adjusted completion percentage (PFF): the percent of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed)
• PFF passing grade. It's the only way to approximate my grading across the league. I'm sure it's not perfect, but I know Maye's PFF grades generally line up with my own. If they use the same grading system and apply it consistently to every player, it should be at least a solid comparison tool.
The results definitely surprised me.
Stafford was basically the same player against defenses in the top and bottom half. Maye definitely feasted more against weaker defenses. Although he is closer to Allen than Stafford, there's still a good distance.
The big differences:
• Maye's PFF passing grade is 20 points better against the bottom half (and he's better than Stafford and Allen). Stafford is almost the same. Allen is 5 points better against the bottom half.
• Maye's passer rating is 32.8 points better against the bottom half. Allen is 20.7 better, Stafford 10.9.
• Maye's EPA/DB differential is +.56 against the bottom. Stafford and Allen are basically the same (-0.1).
• Maye's adjusted completion percentage is 8.1% less against the top half in DVOA. Stafford is -4.2, and Allen is actually better at +1.2.
• Maye's yards per attempt drops by an average of 2 yards against the top. The difference is negligible for Stafford (-0.3) and Allen (0.1).
• Between interceptions and fumbles, Maye averages 2.15 vs. the top and 0.85 against the bottom. Allen is 1.9/1. Stafford is even.
• Maye is sacked 2.85 times more against the top. Allen is 1.5, Stafford is the same.
• Maye's difference between BTT% and TWP% is +6.1 against the bottom. Allen is +1.2. Stafford's differential is actually better against the top half (4.3 to 2.6).
Here are the final numbers:
I think this makes it pretty clear that, to this point in his career, Maye is doing most of his damage against the weaker pass defenses. That might very well line up with Stafford, Allen, Patrick Mahomes, etc. early in their careers as well. Someone else can do that work, but it's a separate discussion for me anyway. Part of this conversation is whether Maye should be considered in the same class as the top quarterbacks in the league today and a viable MVP candidate. Based on these stats, I think that's premature.
That doesn't mean he can't be by the end of the season. Part of the reason why the Patriots made changes to their receiving targets and offensive line was to help Maye be better against the top defenses he will face, especially in the postseason. I think the Patriots realized they — and Maye — were at a disadvantage in the postseason (which those top defenses reinforced), so they tried to improve with A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Eli Raridon, and Jared Wilson at center. Maye hasn't even had the opportunity to operate with his full supporting cast.
Related to that, I'm sure a lot of people will point to Stafford's supporting cast (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams) and Sean McVay's scheme as reasons this is an unfair comparison for Maye. I think that's fair, but I think it's hard to make that case when you compare Maye to Allen (you could argue his offensive line last season, but this season it's a lot closer).
My feeling is this is pretty typical for a young quarterback, and the gap between Maye's performance against the top and bottom half will get closer as he gains more experience. Right now, he's closer to his North Carolina days than he is to the end of his career (god willing). I'm willing to bet he'll at least be in the same conversation with Allen (30, 9th season) and Stafford (38, 18th season) when he has their level of experience, if not better.
Here are the positional ratings, grades, and 3 up/3 down against the Raiders:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (5 out of 5)
In his last six quarters, Maye has basically been flawless. He's regained his confidence in his supporting cast and pass protection (which was markedly better in this game). He's throwing with conviction, and he took advantage of the pass-poor Bills and Raiders giving him exactly what he wants with 1-on-1s down the field. ... Maye's only minus plays in this game was taking that hellacious hit at the end of a scramble (which was a plus), a poor decision throwing into triple coverage to Efton Chism when Romeo Doubs was the better option, and his grounding penalty, which cost the team points. ... Maye's TD pass to Hunter Henry (pressure in his face), TD pass to Kyle Williams, Maye's TD run, and the deep passes to Raridon and Williams were all elite plays.
Running backs (3.5 out of 5)