Bedard's Breakdown (Offense): Maye's inexperience, lack of patience stand out against another top defense

The bottom line from the season-opening loss is this: if Drake Maye takes care of the football, the Patriots beat the defending Super Bowl champions on the road.

If you're second-guessing Josh McDaniels' offensive gameplan, or Mike Vrabel's game management ... that's fine, but you're missing the plot. Maybe you had sky-high offensive expectations considering Maye's 2025 season, and the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Maybe you're a big Maye fan, and you just want to make excuses for him, like in the Super Bowl (he was not hampered physically), and just don't want to face or hear the truth: Maye lost the game. Period.

Vrabel's job is to figure out how his team is going to win that week's game, and be the tip of the spear for in-game adjustments if the game goes another way.

It was quite obvious that the approach, at least offensively, was to take things slow. The last time the Patriots faced Mike Macdonald's defense, they were dominated. And that was on a neutral field. The Patriots were going to Lumen Field, the hardest place to play for an offense in the NFL. The Patriots had a lot of new players in new spots who had never played with each other, starting with newcomers Brown, Doubs and Reggie Gilliam. Left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker hadn't played an NFL game in 612 days. Second-year player Jared Wilson was making his first start at center. TE Eli Raridon was playing his first NFL game.

That's a lot of new faces and a lot of unknowns playing in the soundgarden that is Lumen. Add in the best defensive line in football, and arguably the best defensive scheme in the game, and it's no wonder the Patriots took a very cautious approach on offense. The Patriots weren't going to win the game on offense in the first half, but they could certainly lose it (see, the Super Bowl). The Patriots seemed to take the approach of getting their feet under themselves, playing some meaningful snaps together for the first time in game situations, letting the game declare itself, making adjustments at halftime, and then winning the game in the second half.

It was a perfectly reasonable approach. Vrabel doesn't get paid to make sure Maye has great stats, or that the offense moves the ball. Vrabel gets paid to win the game, and the Patriots were well on their way to doing that before Maye imploded for no good reason.

"We had the game under control," Maye said. "Thought we had a good plan to start chipping away and be patient and lost patience and it cost us, decisions that cost us the game on my part. ... We can’t have those. We can’t have those. It’s unacceptable."

Say this about the 24-year-old: he speaks the truth, and isn't afraid of it.

Now, I do think that Brown's injury — caused by one of Maye's multiple poorly thrown balls (Maye put Brown in a bad spot earlier on a high pass, and Maye got Hunter Henry croaked to open the second half) — threw any plans to open up the offense a little out the window.

Do people, even after what you saw in the fourth quarter, really think it would have been wise to open the game up more? Yes, it's true that Seattle's secondary was missing people, but on film they were more than sound. There were no weaknesses to exploit, and they often stayed in two deep safeties to limit the big plays. The only way to take them out of that is to prove effective at running the ball. The Patriots had to keep trying, especially since they were tied or held the lead for 54 minutes and 10 seconds.

Why would you play any other way, in that place, against a backup quarterback?

Let's also not lose sight of the fact that Maye not only cost the team the game, he gave the Seahawks life when they had none. His first two interceptions led to 10 Seahawks points. When Maye threw his first interception, it was 2nd and 9 at the Seattle 45. Patriots had two downs to get the 7 or 8 yards to attempt a field goal, or go for it on fourth down. The Patriots might have gotten that had Maye simply checked the ball down to RB Corey Kiner (the checkdowns were there most of the game because Seattle was dropping their linebackers deep to take away the deep middle of the field — would have been nice to have TreVeyon Henderson's speed in this one).

Maye had Stevenson for plenty to win the field position battle on the second interception.

And, of course, the Patriots were already in comfortable field-goal position to tie the game on the final drive.

When the Patriots went up 10-0 and had the ball with under 9 minutes left in the third quarter, I said in the press box, "Vrabel has to be thinking, 'All we need to do is end every drive with a kick from here on out, and we stand a pretty good chance of winning.'"

At that point, the Patriots had an 80% chance of winning (probably more if the calculations included Drew Lock for Sam Darnold).

Before Maye's first interception, the Patriots had an 86% chance of winning.

Instead of a field goal, punt, and punt for an opening win. Interception, interception and interception — all, really, unforced — yielded a loss.

That's it. That was the game.

We do need to discuss Maye, and why he's a different quarterback against the best defenses (besides the obvious that it's, you know, hard).

Maye, because he's so young (just turned 24) and relatively inexperienced, struggles against the defenses that change the picture pre- and post-snap (which Seattle does more than any team). When Maye had a good idea of what he's going to see after the snap, he plays fast, with conviction and fires the ball.

When Maye is unsure of the coverage he's getting, that's when he starts taking extra hitches, his feet pitter-patter, and the hitch in his throwing motion (which I've been talking about since he got here) reveals itself. Seahawks safety Julian Love, who read Maye like a book on the second interception, hit the nail on the head ahead of his interception in the Super Bowl.

It's not unique to young quarterbacks. Tom Brady looked ordinary at times against Rex Ryan's defenses (Macdonald learned his disguises under Wink Martindale, a protégé of Ryan's). 

However, Maye's struggles against the Seahawks remind me a lot of Josh Allen's early struggles against the Patriots and Bill Belichick's changing pictures. Maye shares a lot of QB DNA with Allen, as uber-talented young guns who entered the league unrefined. How did Allen turn the tide against Belichick and the Patriots? He finally became more patient (that still wanes at times), and became content to take the check down while the Patriots played deeper, waiting for Allen to give in to his inner gunslinger and throw the Patriots the ball. Remember the December 2021 game when the Bills became the first team to never punt against a Belichick defense? If Maye played like the conservative Allen, the Patriots would have won that game.

To become an elite quarterback, which I have little doubt will come, Maye is going to need more reps against these top defenses, and he's going to have to channel Matthew Stafford (who Love referenced because Stafford put on a pocket passing clinic in the NFC Championship Game (22 of 35, 374 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 127.6 rating).

To become one of the league's best, Maye is going to have to be more decisive and not be afraid to throw receivers open with anticipation against top defenses. The interception to Pop Douglas was a perfect example of a throw Stafford makes, but Maye can't at this time. Maye tried to look off Love to give time and space for Douglas to be open. But Maye doesn't have that level of confidence yet. He needs to see Douglas open to confirm his read. That's too late. 

Stafford, after his back foot hit, would rip the ball to Douglas without hesitation. Maye takes two extra hitches and gets up on his toes and front foot. That's way too late to throw a seam against a great defense.

I don't see any reason why Maye won't get to that level. The only question is time. The more he studies, the more snaps he gets, and the more he trusts his targets (not sure how much confidence I would have in Douglas on that route either), the more Maye can get to that level.

It's no shame he's not there yet. It would be a shock if he was.

Maye had a rough fourth quarter on the road against a great team, and it cost his team the game. There will be games like that for him, just like every other quarterback. It's OK to say it and not make excuses for him.

Breaking down the second half, starting with the controversial 3rd-and-5 draw to end the first half (the play was there and should have been executed):

Here are the positional ratings against the Seahawks:

OFFENSE

Quarterback (1 out of 5)

Maye finished with almost the same grade as the Super Bowl against the Seahawks. According to my rating, it was the third-worst start of his career after the Bills last season in Week 15, and the Raiders last year. The good news? Maye had a stinker in the season opener against Vegas, and rebounded with four strong performances in the next five games (the turnover-fest loss to the Steelers). ... Maye didn't have any big-time throws in this game. He didn't need any to win this one. Usually you do. Stafford had five in the NFC Championship Game. ... Another issue for Maye: he needs to be better at getting the Patriots out of bad runs, which he also admitted in his press conference. I noted three that ended up in stuffs or tackles for a loss — including the 2-yard loss from the NE 6 with 9:29 left in the third quarter — with an unblocked defender that I attributed to the Team. Can't be running into unblocked defenders on the second level. 

Running backs (2 out of 5)

During the season, Rhamondre Stevenson will be a little better than this. He wasn't bad, but he could be a little better. ... On the ill-fated 3rd and 5 draw (which saw three unmanned gaps on the Seattle defense), Vera-Tucker needs to make a much better block on Leonard Williams, but Stevenson also needs to make a better cut. For now, I'm chalking it up to Stevenson not really knowing Vera-Tucker yet. ... Reggie Gilliam was underwhelming in his first Patriots action. I'm going to guess that fullbacks improve with more real game action. ... Corey Kiner is more than solid as a backup, but the team missed Henderson's speed to gobble up some yards in a checkdown game.

Receivers (2 out of 5)

It was Mack Hollins, and then everyone else was meh or worse. However, you have to understand against Seattle that you aren't going to throw for explosive plays because they play so deep at safety, sound and the linebackers (especially Ernest Jones) drop so deep underneath routes. Looked like the Seahawks were using Jones to take away the slants to Brown ... Eli Raridon had a brutal time blocking in this one, but at least not every team has Seattle's monsters on the edge. It looked like a middleweight against a heavyweight. ... If Romeo Doubs doesn't drop the ball at midfield, the Patriots would have crossed the 50 on their final three possessions, yet all ended in turnovers. Worried about Doubs' ability to keep his confidence up. His emotions were an issue in Green Bay. ... I didn't love some of A.J. Brown's route running and effort on some plays before he left with an injury. And when he returns, can the Patriots get him a helmet that fits? I noticed on at least three occasions, Brown was fumbling with his facemask while running routes. 

Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)

It was WAY better than the Super Bowl, but there were still some issues, starting with Vera-Tucker. My camp fears were confirmed in this one; you just hope more playing time will knock the rust off. ... The coaches must fix Vera-Tucker's alignment, which is about 5 inches behind Will Campbell. It makes him and them especially susceptible to games, and other teams are going to see that on film and attack them. ... The other issue with Vera-Tucker is he isn't overly strong or nasty. He's a terrific athlete, which aids in space and on screens. But athleticism only gets you so far at guard. Elite players dominate physically. He's just not that player right now.  ... If the Patriots are going to run the ball well, they can't have Campbell (both his penalties - the hold was iffy), Mike Onwenu and Jared Wilson each allow two stuffed runs. ... Campbell in the Super Bowl: 1 sack, two hits, 8.5 hurries - 11.5 total QB pressures. This one: half hit, 1 hurry - 1.5 total QB pressures. ... Pressure rate in the Super Bowl: 56%. This one: 38.6%. ... The Patriots did not let the Seattle defensive line win this game, like it did the Super Bowl. Mission accomplished. Good sign to start the year. ... Keep telling yourself this: the challenge for the offensive line and offense in general doesn't get much harder than the Seahawks, and the Patriots controlled most of the game.

THREE UP

WR Mack Hollins: Money Mack will probably need to play a bigger role with Brown out.

RG Mike Onwenu: Would really love to see him get downhill more in the run game, but he's never really been that guy.

LT Will Campbell: Good for him getting that monkey off his back.

THREE DOWN

LG Alijah Vera-Tucker: He actually allowed more pressure (4.5) and had a worse grade (-9.9%) than Jared Wilson did in the Super Bowl (3.5/-8.5%).

TE Eli Raridon: The fact that he was a crash test dummy in this game wasn't his fault (somebody had to do it), but the Patriots really missed Julian Hill in this one.

WR Romeo Doubs: Can't drop that ball. Time to step up with Brown down.