SEATTLE — The Patriots came out of nowhere to end up in the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel's first season.
It was a charmed season. The schedule lined up with a light load of starting quarterbacks. The team had a ridiculous run of injury luck that kept their lack of depth from hurting them. Then their luck got even better in the postseason, as they faced quarterbacks who were beat up behind bad lines (Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud) and a backup QB in the AFC Championship Game (Jarrett Stidham).
As far as seasons go, not many line up better than that. And, credit to the Patriots, they took advantage of the breaks and pressed forward. Eventually, reality set in against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
As the 2026 season begins, you have to wonder if the football gods will even things out, especially considering what transpired in the offseason with the head coach. Fate can be a cruel mistress. Just ask the Commanders about last season, one year after a Patriots-like run to the NFC Championship Game.
New England certainly invited some Commanders-like comparisons, dipping into familiar - and aging - waters with A.J. Brown and Kevin Byard brought in as finishing pieces on both offense and defense. We'll see on Byard, but Brown looks poised to rediscover his form after losing his lust for football around Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' downtrodden offense.
I don't have many worries about the Patriots' offense. The offensive line should be improved, if not vastly improved, this season, as LT Will Campbell looks like a new man, and Jared Wilson appears to be a natural at center. As long as Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses bring the same level of steady play, the only real unknown entering the season is LG Alijah Vera-Tucker. He has the highest ceiling of any of them, but he hasn't played a lot of football due to injuries over the past few seasons. Is he ready to start fast, or will there be an acclimation period?
The Patriots seem to have solved their run-blocking issues, especially in short yardage, with FB Reggie Gilliam and two legitimate blocking tight ends in Tanner Arkin and Cam Latu, who are huge upgrades over Austin Hooper. That should lighten the load for Hunter Henry and allow him to be more of a playmaker. And rookie Eli Raridon can be a gameplan big-play threat. We'll see if the light goes on for speedster back TreVeyon Henderson — perhaps Gilliam can lead him to the sliver of daylight he needs — but Rhamondre Stevenson never gets enough credit for how well he does everything.
The receivers are deep and an eclectic collection of talent — everyone does something a little different, which should aid game-to-game planning and make the Patriots more efficient situationally. Brown is open even when he's not. Romeo Doubs has a knack for coming up big when needed. If Pop Douglas doesn't break out this season, that would be a stain on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Mack Hollins is the Stevenson of the receivers, and Kyle Williams brings much-needed speed to the group.
We may look back and realize the humbling Super Bowl loss (and postseason run) was the best thing to happen to Drake Maye. All of his young faults, especially his propensity to take sacks and put the ball on the ground, were laid bare to the world. But now, with better weapons, better protection, and a deeper understanding of the tools at his disposal in McDaniels' offense, Maye is primed to be even better this season, even if his stats don't always tell the tale. He still needs to prove he won't revert to hero ball when things break down. Being a great all-around athlete is a gift and a curse for a young quarterback. It took Aaron Rodgers a few years — and some tough conversations with his teammates — to strike the kind of balance that got the Packers their last Super Bowl title. Maye, despite being younger and less experienced, is much more humble and coachable than Rodgers was. As long as Maye maintains that, it will be one of his greatest assets as he navigates his third season at just 24 years old. Also, Maye has to realize much of this season could be just as "hard" as the AFC Championship Game. He and this offense sort of snuck up on people last season. That will not be the case this season, as opponents, especially those in the AFC, have spent the offseason dissecting him. There will be a lot of Drake Maye Plans, like the Cover-6s he struggled with in the postseason, and he needs to be ready to weather some rough spots. Adding Brown and Doubs to the mix should help that effort.
Maye and the Patriots' offense may need to be superhuman for the team to succeed. With a distinct lack of impact players on the edge of the defense, the Patriots may again need to be blitz-happy like they were down the stretch — another thing opponents will be ready for this season. Fortunately, the Patriots have a stellar secondary on paper, led by the newly happy Christian Gonzalez, to lock things down. The Patriots will need another full season from Carlton Davis (can that really happen again?) and the always-standout Marcus Jones. Safety Craig Woodson seems poised for stardom after how he played in the postseason, and does Byard have one more moment in the sun?
The Patriots better hope so, because their defense, outside of the defensive tackle spot missing the bulk of Khyiris Tonga (over $350,000), is thinner than my hair these days. It may hurt this season if the Patriots' injury luck goes the other way, but I secretly love that they went young and green at defensive depth. Just as the Patriots stiff-armed the trade deadline last year to keep one eye on the future, the brass is making sure the organization eats its vegetables by at least trying to build a desperately needed young line of players. The only way to build a sustainable winner is to build stockpiles of first- and second-year players who could eventually become starters. You can't do that by compiling 30-somethings, hoping this will be the year — just ask the aforementioned Commanders. You can't have a future unless you actively plan for one. The Patriots have. Could that cost them this season? Yes. But sometimes it's better to lose a battle to eventually win the war of attrition for years to come.
As for the opener, I think the Patriots are in a better position, relative to the Seahawks, than most realize. The defending champions have endured a lot of change this offseason. People seem to think installing a new offensive coordinator (Brian Fleury) will be seamless just because he came from a similar system, leaving out the fact that tonight will be the first time he's called plays in a real game. I'm sure it won't be nearly as easy putting in a rookie at running back (Jadarian Price) for Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, who made the offense go last season. The Seahawks' secondary is a mess with injuries at safety, and the cornerbacks beyond Devon Witherspoon are green. The Seahawks were so good on defense last season because all three levels of the defense were synchronized like a Swiss timepiece. There's no way they will be at that level in this game, to say nothing of the fact that it appears that the Patriots practices in pads way more often than the Seahawks. Could the hosts be underprepared for this game? I absolutely do not rule it out. But Lumen Field and the 12s have a great knack for swinging games the Seahawks have no business winning. I think that will be the case tonight, even if I think Maye, McDaniels and the offense will have the edge in this rematch. It's just a really tough spot for all the new pieces to come together for the first time out in live action.
I'm picking the Seahawks 24-20 in this one, and I actually have the Patriots starting 1-2, before they catch fire and come into their own, staring with the game at Buffalo. I have the Patriots sweeping the Bills and new coach Joe Brady to win the AFC East for the second straight season. I have the Patriots at 11-6, and I think they will exit the playoffs before the AFC Championship because their depth will give out at some point, unlike last season.
That may be a step back for some people, but let's be honest: the Patriots weren't a Super Bowl team last season; they just took advantage of a situation in which many of the AFC's best quarterbacks succumbed to injuries. A run to, or just short of, the AFC Championship would be validation that they weren't a one-hit wonder.
They weren't. The Patriots are just getting started.