The Patriots' 2026 schedule has been released:
Initial thoughts from Bedard, and then Giardi:
BEDARD'S ANALYSIS
• Sure, it's a tough start, but I wouldn't call it impossible or anything.
Opening in Seattle against the defending champions, who pantsed you in front of the world, is not ideal (defending champs have won 16 of the last 21 season openers at home), but there's something to like about this. Internally, the Patriots are not afraid of this. In fact, they're embracing it.
Why?
Facing the Seahawks after what happened in February is the surest way to get this team to dial it in during training camp. You know what they just did to you; you studied them a ton going into it, and then dissected the game ad nauseam in the offseason. Don't you think guys like Drake Maye and Will Campbell won't be itching to redeem themselves? If this were, say, the Dolphins or the Raiders, the preparation during camp would be much different.
Also, the Patriots arguably have more continuity than the Seahawks. They lost star RB Kenneth Walker, Edge Boye Mafe, S Coby Bryant and CB Riq Woolen, and only added some well-traveled players like Edge Dante Fowler and S Rodney Thomas. And the Seahawks might be the team to let down, since they just blew out the Patriots and will be getting smoke blown up their behind for weeks. Not a bad spot.
• Yes, the Patriots blew the game against the Steelers last year, but that was with a new staff and new schemes. A lot of newness. This time around, that will be the Steelers under new coach Mike McCarthy. Good spot.
• The next two games are going to be brutal tests, no doubt, in the heat in Jacksonville and at the Bills in their new stadium. Good luck.
• Even if the Patriots start 1-3, they get a gift at home against the Raiders and Jets, the Bears aren't totally daunting even on TNF and the road, and they play the rebuilding Dolphins.
• Packers at home and Lions in Munich will be tough, but a good bye week for a change heading into a second West Coast trip to the Chargers.
• Vikings will be a tough turnaround for Thursday night football, but the Patriots get extra time to rest up and prepare for the trip to Kansas City.
• Good finish with the Jets and Dolphins, and only the Broncos at home being daunting.
Bedard's initial thoughts:
Week 1 at Seattle ... Win (1-0).
Week 2 Steelers ... Win (2-0).
Week 3 at Jaguars ... Loss (2-1).
Week 4 at Bills ... Loss (2-2).
Week 5 Raiders ... Win (3-2).
Week 6 Jets ... Win (4-2)
Week 7 at Bears ... Loss (4-3).
Week 8 at Miami ... Win (5-3).
Week 9 Packers ... Win (6-3).
Week 10 Lions ... Win (7-3).
Week 12 at Chargers ... Win (8-3).
Week 13 Bills ... Loss (8-4).
Week 14 Vikings ... Win (9-4).
Week 15 at Chiefs ... Loss (9-5).
Week 16 at Jets ... Win (10-5).
Week 17 Broncos ... Loss (10-6).
Week 18 Miami ... Win (11-6).
GIARDI'S ANALYSIS
First, don’t tell me this schedule is “easy.” It’s not, at least on paper here in mid-May. Obviously, the quality of the opponent appears more difficult. But it goes beyond that.
7 of the first 11 on the road, five primetime games (for now), and a couple of brutal spots stand out to me.
The Pats of a year ago embraced life away from home, making sure to “pack their identity.” They will be challenged to do that again. Greg doesn’t seem all that unnerved by the opener in Seattle. I don’t share his optimism at this juncture. Yes, Vrabel will find plenty of ways to motivate his team ahead of that night. However, Mike Macdonald was the best coach in the league a season ago (if we’re including the postseason, which I am). This is no dummy. He’s studying you just as much as you’re studying him, and the last time he did this, Macdonald and the Seahawks stole your lunch money and stuffed you into a locker for the whole world to see. They’ll be just as motivated to prove that was no fluke, especially in front of the 12th man. That is the 2nd loudest stadium I’ve ever been in (believe it or not, Buffalo topped it). Anyway…
Week 3 in the heat and humidity of Jacksonville will not be a good time. Trust me, I once damn near kicked the bucket doing live shots in a suit there. No, I’m not a highly conditioned athlete, but hot temps don’t usually get me. They did that day. Pats might need to employ Bobby Boucher (aka the Waterboy) for some high-quality H20.
I wouldn’t be shaking in my shoes at the sight of Trevor Lawrence, but there’s a lot of talent on that roster, and Liam Coen appears to be good at his job. Heading to Buffalo the following weekend makes for a challenge back-to-back, especially with the Bills no doubt trying to reassert their superiority in the division.
I’m not worried about the Jets in Foxborough (week 6), but the short turnaround to Chicago on Thursday night will be challenging for sure.
Yes, I like the bye in week 11, but what’s leading into it and what the Pats face coming out of it is, for me, the toughest stretch of the season.
Week 9: Green Bay
Week 10: Detroit in Munich
Week 12: Sunday Night Football in LA against the Chargers (Mike McDaniel has forgotten more about offense than the previous OC, Greg Roman, ever knew).
Week 13: Buffalo
Week 14: Thursday Night Football against Minnesota (at least it’s at home)
Week 15: Monday Night Football at Kansas City (the Chiefs have this guy named Mahomes)
Again, on paper, those are some stacked rosters they’ll see during that run in November/December, and a bunch of great to really good QBs (Kyler Murray probably being the worst over those five games, but when he’s on, he’s a borderline top-10 signal caller).
Get through that, and it’s a decent end to the season, with only the toughie against the Broncos (at Gillette) sandwiching a trip to the Jets and a home date versus the Dolphins.
Week 1 at Seattle ... Loss (0-1).
Week 2 Steelers ... Win (1-1).
Week 3 at Jaguars ... Loss (1-2).
Week 4 at Bills ... Win (2-2).
Week 5 Raiders ... Win (3-2).
Week 6 Jets ... Win (4-2).
Week 7 at Bears ... Loss (4-3).
Week 8 at Miami ... Win (5-3).
Week 9 Packers ... Win (6-3).
Week 10 Lions ... Loss (6-4).
Week 12 at Chargers ... Win (7-4).
Week 13 Bills ... Loss (7-5).
Week 14 Vikings ... Win (8-5).
Week 15 at Chiefs ... Loss (8-6).
Week 16 at Jets ... Win (9-6).
Week 17 Broncos ... Win (10-6).
Week 18 Miami ... Win (11-6).
I hate myself for having the same record as Bedard, but I was on TV Wednesday, and that was the win total I gave.