Trying to separate fact from fiction as we approach night one of the NFL Draft. There’s been a lot of the latter, and there has been a wide range of opinions in the class. Trying to find a consensus has been harder than finding a good hitter in the Red Sox lineup this spring (I was there Monday for the eight-run ‘explosion.’ They hit like 2 balls hard all day. It’s shaping up to be a long summer).
- I’ve been telling you guys this for like a month, but the expectation around the league is the top 7 tackles come flying off the board, and it’s looking more and more like the Patriots will have to use some of their draft collateral if they want to come away with a Morgan Moses replacement (not that he’s going anywhere for 2026).
Key pivot points/teams that could start the run sooner rather than later, and really gum up the works if that’s the Pats' desire in round one: the Chiefs at #9 (although they have made calls about moving up). There is a strong belief that they like Jordyn Tyson, the WR from Arizona State, but also one of the tackles (Spencer Fano, I’ve heard). If they trade up from 9 to, say, #5 or #6 and grab Fano, I believe the run will start and possibly force teams in the mid- to late-20s to explore deals to get into the teens or early 20s.
I’ll give you another team that could gum up the works: the New York Giants. After trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals, they have picks #5 and #10. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they moved off #5 (hello, Chiefs), but the Giants have also been linked to offensive line early, even after re-upping Jermaine Eluemunor to play RT, and having Andrew Thomas at LT. That’s because they, like the Pats, want to protect their quarterback, even if that means kicking a rookie tackle inside, or doing the same with Eluemunor (their guards are suspect).
Even if they don’t stick and pick at #5, they could easily grab that lineman at #10, or with whatever they acquire to move off their first pick. Again, that would just pluck a couple of key tackles off the board and create an urgency to make sure you don’t get shut out of the first tier of tackles, especially with the second tier less inspiring (Caleb Tiernan, Markel Bell, Travis Burke, Austin Barber). Pats lived through this in 2024 when the run on tackles caught them off guard, leaving them with Caedan Wallace. How’s that working out for ‘em? I’ll answer: poorly.
- As I’ve indicated in my edge class previews (yep, there were two of ‘em), there is a great divide on the group, the tiers within the group. For instance, a couple of teams I’ve spoken with think Malachi Lawrence should go mid-to-late 2nd, at the earliest. Others think he’s a first-round talent (at least in this draft). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, even more so in this draft than others in recent memory.
Some of the outlier measurements - Rueben Bain and Cashius Howell’s arm lengths - 30 7/8 inches and 30 1/4 inches, respectively - will give plenty of teams pause, even if the tape is good. It should be noted that no player in at least the last 26 years has had double-digit sacks at that length. Sorry to beat the number up, but historically, it's mattered.
I can tell you I know there are folks in the building who like Lawrence, Missouri’s Zion Young and Derrick Moore from Michigan. Those are three distinct flavors, in my opinion. Lawrence has an explosive first step and could give the team a designated pass rusher who could, hopefully, grow into a three-down role (his run defense is suspect). Young is a power player, rock-solid against the run, but doesn’t have a deep pass-rush bag. Moore is a bull-rushing force who, when he wants, is capable against the run. I’d consider him more of a 2nd-to-3rd round type, where the other two should land in the top-40.
- I’m a big fan of the collection of tight ends in this draft. However, it's looking more and more like the majority of these players will go on day three, which wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Pats. The reason is that, behind Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq and, perhaps, Eli Stowers of Vanderbilt (many view him as more of a big wideout than a TE, as do I), the grades on so many of these guys are similar. So why take one in, say, the third round, when you can just wait and hope you’re in range when the run happens on day three? The Pats currently have two fourth-rounders, albeit later in the round (#125 and #131).
- Kayshon Boutte didn’t show for the start of voluntary workouts, which is his right. But there is a reason his name is popping up in trade talks: the player wants it. It’s not a reflection of how Boutte feels about his time with this new regime last year; rather, it’s about touches. He didn’t get enough last year, and with the real likelihood of the Pats adding AJ Brown (he plays Boutte’s position) alongside free agent Romeo Doubs, and the coaching staff believing Kyle Williams is about to make a jump, Boutte sees the writing on the wall. In this market, I see where he’s coming from. He catches 50 balls next year with four to six touchdowns, and he’s in line for something similar to what Doubs just got in free agency. That’s life-changing money. A third-day pick is the likely return.
VRABEL WILL NOT BE WITH TEAM ON SATURDAY AS HE SEEKS COUNSELING
"As I said the other day, I promised my family, this organization and this team that I was going to give them the best version of me that I can possibly give them. In order to do so, I have committed to seeking counseling, starting this weekend," Mike Vrabel said Wednesday night to ESPN. "This is something that I have given a lot of thought to and is something I would advise a player to do if I was counseling them.
"I have always wanted to lead by example and I believe this is what I have to do to be the best husband, father and coach that I possibly can be. This is not an easy thing for me to admit, but it is one that I know will make me a better person. I appreciate the support that everyone has given me and promise a stronger resolve as a result."
Vrabel, who has two sons with his wife Jen, plans to be with his family this weekend outside of Massachusetts, according to ESPN.
Vrabel will still be in contact with the Patriots on Saturday for the final day of the draft. But he expressed confidence to ESPN in Executive Vice President of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf and Vice President of Player Personnel Ryan Cowden to lead the draft room.
- Greg A. Bedard