Trying to separate fact from fiction as we approach night one of the NFL Draft. There’s been a lot of the latter, and there has been a wide range of opinions in the class. Trying to find a consensus has been harder than finding a good hitter in the Red Sox lineup this spring (I was there Monday for the eight-run ‘explosion.’ They hit like 2 balls hard all day. It’s shaping up to be a long summer).
- I’ve been telling you guys this for like a month, but the expectation around the league is the top 7 tackles come flying off the board, and it’s looking more and more like the Patriots will have to use some of their draft collateral if they want to come away with a Morgan Moses replacement (not that he’s going anywhere for 2026).
Key pivot points/teams that could start the run sooner rather than later, and really gum up the works if that’s the Pats' desire in round one: the Chiefs at #9 (although they have made calls about moving up). There is a strong belief that they like Jordyn Tyson, the WR from Arizona State, but also one of the tackles (Spencer Fano, I’ve heard). If they trade up from 9 to, say, #5 or #6 and grab Fano, I believe the run will start and possibly force teams in the mid- to late-20s to explore deals to get into the teens or early 20s.
I’ll give you another team that could gum up the works: the New York Giants. After trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals, they have picks #5 and #10. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they moved off #5 (hello, Chiefs), but the Giants have also been linked to offensive line early, even after re-upping Jermaine Eluemunor to play RT, and having Andrew Thomas at LT. That’s because they, like the Pats, want to protect their quarterback, even if that means kicking a rookie tackle inside, or doing the same with Eluemunor (their guards are suspect).
Even if they don’t stick and pick at #5, they could easily grab that lineman at #10, or with whatever they acquire to move off their first pick. Again, that would just pluck a couple of key tackles off the board and create an urgency to make sure you don’t get shut out of the first tier of tackles, especially with the second tier less inspiring (Caleb Tiernan, Markel Bell, Travis Burke, Austin Barber). Pats lived through this in 2024 when the run on tackles caught them off guard, leaving them with Caedan Wallace. How’s that working out for ‘em? I’ll answer: poorly.
- As I’ve indicated in my edge class previews (yep, there were two of ‘em), there is a great divide on the group, the tiers within the group. For instance, a couple of teams I’ve spoken with think Malachi Lawrence should go mid-to-late 2nd, at the earliest. Others think he’s a first-round talent (at least in this draft). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, even more so in this draft than others in recent memory.
Some of the outlier measurements - Rueben Bain and Cashius Howell’s arm lengths - 30 7/8 inches and 30 1/4 inches, respectively - will give plenty of teams pause, even if the tape is good. It should be noted that no player in at least the last 26 years has had double-digit sacks at that length. Sorry to beat the number up, but historically, it's mattered.
I can tell you I know there are folks in the building who like