At this time last year, I wrote about what the realistic expectations should be on how much the Patriots would spend during the 2025 offseason.
Turns out, I wasn't far off.
The Patriots had $120 million in cap space to start the offseason, and I said I'd be shocked if they used $100 million. They used about $75 million of it, which allowed them to roll over about $47 million for this offseason. They needed it because, currently, they have about $40 million in cap space, which is the 11th-most in the league.
I also had them with a cash budget for the offseason (on top of the cash already spent), of approximately $160 million. The Patriots ended up spending $174 million cash in Mike Vrabel's first offseason.
So now the question is, coming off a Super Bowl appearance, how much should we anticipate the Patriots spending in 2026, and how will they allocate those resources — are they going to "go for it," or are they going to stay the course with the rebuild?
The short answer: Unless Robert Kraft suddenly turns over a new leaf (it's possible, for reasons I'll get into), I would not anticipate the Patriots spending all that much.
Why? The same answer I had last season: forget cap space — in fact, stop counting cap space — and follow the cash.
The Patriots just spent a ton of cash the previous two seasons.
Counting cap space is the wrong way to track personnel moves by NFL teams. What you want to do is count the cash the Patriots lay out as they go along. That is the ONLY factor. Cash and cap are not the same. Cap space can be manipulated any way you want. You can use a ton now. You can push some down the road.
Cash is the only real thing to owners, especially to the Krafts, who are businessmen first. Every business has a budget, even sports teams. The Krafts use the cap as a guide to their budget each year. It's called being a cash-to-cap team. How do we know this? Well, we've reported it for years, but Robert Kraft confirmed it when he answered my question after Jerod Mayo was fired last January.
Q: Robert, this is going to be very expensive. Buying out a coaching staff, bringing in a new coaching staff, perhaps it goes into the personnel department as well. You also have $120 million in cap space this year, the most in the league. Will what you spend on this transition affect anything that you spend on players this offseason?
RKK: The answer is no. We've always had a situation where we spend to the cap. We have never told any coach or limited the spending. The only thing we've said is if you exceed the cap, we'd like to see it leveled out over three years so that we never get way out of hand. But spending to the cap or above the cap is not ... we want to win. That's our priority first.
So what does that mean for the team's spending? It gives us a good road map for how the team will spend going forward.
I'm not going to get into the argument about whether or not the Krafts are cheap. You can throw out the fact that the Patriots ranked last in the NFL over a 10-year period, but that doesn't tell you everything. Bill Belichick, the man who balked at paying a left tackle in Cleveland more than himself before he posted a winning record, was in charge of much of that. And it also says something about how the Patriots didn't have much drafted internal talent worthy of big-money extensions that most teams use their cash on. Let's also not forget that those 10 years include four years of Cam Newton and Mac Jones at quarterback making nothing. That is going to skew the numbers, which is why there is a $30 million per year difference between the Patriots and No. 1 cash king Eagles (who laid out two huge QB deals for Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts during that time, by the way).
(Also, I'm going to point out that the Patriots ranked 17th in cash-over-cap spending from 2015-19, Brady’s final five seasons with the team.)
I'm going to deal with the recent reality, and that paints a picture of the Patriots basically being in the middle of the league when it comes to cash spending - and I expect them to stay in that area. That's not a bad thing, and neither is being a cash-to-cap team, no matter what talk show hosts say about it.
A lot of people think the Patriots didn't spend much money in 2024 and 2025, and used their cap space ($34.9 million rolled over for 2025, $47 million rolled over into 2026) as evidence. Again, that's the wrong way to look at it. The Patriots did indeed "burn some cash" the last two offseasons, as they were 12th in the league in cash spending in 2024, and ninth in 2025.
One thing we don't have worry about this offseason, when it comes to the Patriots' spending: the CBA-mandated 90% cap/cash spending floor (teams have to spend 90% of the cap every three years in cash, or else they have to write a check for the balance to the NFLPA). The Patriots are already $60 million beyond that threshold without spending another cent.
WHY 'THREE YEARS' IS IMPORTANT TO THE KRAFTS
I don't know this for a fact, but it sure seems like Kraft looks in three-year increments because that's what the CBA lays out in terms of the 90% cap/cash spending floor. The 2026 league year is the final year of this three-year period.
Why is that important when it comes to the Patriots' spending? Because we can use the previous three-year period, 2021-23, as a blueprint for how much to expect out of the Patriots as far as spending.
We all know that 2021 was the great Patriots free agent bonanza where they spent on a ton of free agents, including Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry to make up for Belichick's poor drafting.
As you can see on the bottom line, Belichick spent $52.4 million over his budget in 2021. Like Kraft said, Belichick smoothed out the spending over the next two years relative to the cap to the tune of about $45 million. After that three-year period, the Patriots had spent $6.5 million over the cap.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR 2026?
Where do the Patriots stand after two years of this three-year period?