Bedard: Patriots unlikely to beat Seahawks without a great Drake Maye, and other pre-Super Bowl week thoughts

Some thoughts as Team BSJ readies to travel out to the Bay Area to bring you coverage all week from the Super Bowl...

• Still very early in my prep work on the Seahawks — I've loaded up the computer with film for the flight out — but just the NFC Championship Game alone gives you a lot of information because it was a third meeting between divisional rivals, and Sean McVay is a Super Bowl-winning coach. The Rams beat the Seahawks by 2 in LA, and lost the final two matchups by 3 and 4 points, respectively. The Seahawks allowed an average of 16.4 defensive points per game in the regular season and postseason. The Rams averaged 28.3 against Seattle, and all three of their matchups were among the top five points allowed games (only Bucs at 38, and Cardinals - another divisional rival - with 22 were also in the picture).

There are certainly going to be some schemed-up plays and trick plays that Josh McDaniels uses in this game, because he's not going to hold anything back. But my immediate reaction from the NFCCG film was that Drake Maye is going to have to be the best he's been this season for 60 minutes. Because that's what Matthew Stafford early was in that game, and it still wasn't good enough because Seattle's offense is that good against a team that knows them intimately.

My other thought watching that game: if Stafford wins MVP over Maye, I'm more than fine with it because his high-level throwing to all areas of the field is on another level than Maye at this point. And that's not a knock, Maye is young and in his second season. Stafford has seen it all, and boy, can he still sling it from the pocket.

Look at the throws in this post:

Stafford wasn't perfect in this game — he missed some shots down the field, had a bad miss in the end zone where he threw sidearm, and two turnover-worthy plays — but he had five big-time throws. That's the fifth time he had at least five in a game this season (twice against the Seahawks), and he had a total of 58 this season. Maye never had more than three, and he totaled 30 big-time throws (of course, BTTs don't include runs, which Stafford can't do). Stafford's passing grade from PFF was 91.7. Maye's was 81.7. Stafford had a passing grade in the 80s six times, and in the 90s three times (Texans, Cardinals, Bucs). Maye was also in the 80s six times, but once in the 90s (Saints).

Basically, as just a passer, Stafford is in a different class than Maye. Some of the throws Stafford had to make against the Seahawks, with anticipation and into the tightest of windows, aren't really the types of throws Maye has had to make this season. Of course, Stafford could turn it loose to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams when he needed a play, and they almost always came through. Who on the Patriots is going to do that for Maye? That's an issue, and the Patriots might just run out of magic and smoke and mirrors as far as this offense, which has happened the previous three games, because of it. The Patriots are at a talent deficit going against this Seahawks defense.

If Maye does suddenly channel his inner Stafford, the Patriots will pull the upset, be Super Bowl champions, and Maye will undoubtedly be MVP. Outside of the Seahawks just letting Maye run wild with his legs — and Sam Darnold seeing ghosts and turning into a turnover pumpkin — I don't see another way for the Patriots to win this game. This Seattle defense is freaking good at all three levels. The Texans might be slightly more talented, but I think this unit is better because of Mike MacDonald and how they execute on defense.

• The Patriots are probably going to need to score at least 21 offensive points to win this game, which only happened five times against the Seahawks (Bucs, all 3 Rams games, and Cardinals). What did those games have in common?

- Turnovers (0.8) were half the season average (1.53).
- Zero interceptions
- Slightly more man coverage (5.8%)
- 3% less pressure on the QB (35.6%)
- Less 2-high safeties, more single-high
- Made Seattle play slightly more base defense (+2%)
- Opponents made explosive plays at double (13.8%) season average. Explosive pass plays were +8.5%, and runs were +2.3%.
- Opponents' rush yardage was slightly better (108 vs. 94), but rush EPA/carry was double - more efficient
- Passing yards went from 200 yards during the season, to 305.6 in those five games.
- Sack rate was half
- Red zone was +10%
- Goal to go was +14%

Basically: Maye's going to throw for over 300 yards, make explosive pass plays, cut his sacks down, and Rhamondre Stevenson/Maye are going to need to rush for over 100 yards combined. That would get the Patriots over 400 total yards. In those five 21+ points games, Seattle's opponents averaged 414 total yards. Patriots reached that mark five times this year against the Dolphins (Week 18, 24th in defensive DVOA), Ravens (Week 16, 17th), Jets (Week 17, 31st), Bucs (Week 10, 18th), and Browns (Week 8, 8th).

The Seahawks' defense is No 1 in defensive DVOA — and pass defense and run defense — by a wide margin.

• Related:

• Of course, the Patriots' defense could again win the game for the team, like it has in the other playoff games. That would include turning Darnold into the Jets' Sam Darnold. Stranger things have happened, but this Seattle offense is WAY better than anything the Patriots' defense has faced in the postseason (more on that this week). When CJ Stroud is the best QB you had to defend in the playoffs, you're living the high life. The Charges couldn't block their way out of a paperbag and the system was terrible. Stroud was horrific against the Steelers, never mind the Patriots. And, of course, there was Jarrett Stidham with little in the way of weaponry. 

I don't have much faith that the Patriots can win this game scoring just 13 points or in the teens. That would mean a dominating defensive effort, and I'm not sure that's going happen with a solid offensive line, very good running back in Kenneth Walker, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and enough from other pieces, like Cooper Kupp and TE AJ Barner.

If the Patriots' offense doesn't score enough points, or they start turning the ball over, it's going to be nearly impossible to ask the Patriots' defense to repeat what they've done so far in the postseason against the No. 10 DVOA offense (5th passing). This is not Crapbag R Us from the previous three games.

• I think it's accurate that the Patriots are underdogs in this game, and I think the line is right at -4.5.

• Just a heads up: Michael Hurley of CBS Boston and NBC Sports Boston fame will begin contributing to BSJ starting on Monday. Excited to have Michael and his unique, um, voice lol. Have respected his talent and work ethic for a long time.