Sorry for the late posting, but I wanted to go back over Drake Maye's film against the Broncos (also viewed JT O'Sullivan's breakdown on The QB School Patreon) to double-check my previous work. Before we get into the Maye film, my ratings and grades for the AFC Championship Game, let's get into the news....
Drake Maye was listed on the Patriots' imaginary injury report (they didn't practice) as limited with a right shoulder injury.
As I reported previously, the injury is not believed to be serious and should not affect him in Super Bowl LX. A third source confirmed that today. Maye's sore, but not believed to be injured. The last three games — he's played 20 games now — against tough, physical, and hard-hitting defenses in cold weather have taken a toll, so the Patriots wanted Maye to take it easy for a few days. If it's still an issue at the end of the week, then that would be something. But that is not expected to happen.
Second and third viewing of Maye's film backed up what I originally thought: there's nothing on film to indicate Maye has an injury that is affecting his play. His inaccuracy issues against the Broncos were mostly related to his footwork, which has regressed some against three very good defenses that got a lot of pressure on him (48% in this game). Maye's been sacked 15 times in three games, and three were on Maye in this game. And if you don't want to believe me about Maye's issues in this game, take it from one of the sources. "He wasn’t very accurate, but that’s not anything with an injury." O'Sullivan also never mentioned seeing any physical issues in his film.
But, as always, we always show our work at BSJ, so here's a breakdown of Maye's game against the Broncos, backed up with film analysis:
FIRST HALF
3-4-NE 14 (12:12) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short left to S.Diggs (T.Hufanga)
The near interception. Not sure why Maye was working to that side of the field because the better numbers were to the other side, and DeMario Douglas is the only real option on the play.
2-6-NE 24 (1:45) D.Maye sacked at NE 15 for -9 yards (Q.Robinson)
So I originally put this down as a team sack on the boot back to the right, but O'Sullivan said Maye can't take a sack on this play. First off, he said Maye was too flat and not deep enough on the play fake. He's also outside the pocket, so he can just throw it out of bounds. At the very least, with Robinson holding him, Maye could have just thrown the ball at Henry's feet. I'm sure Maye thought he could stiff-arm Robinson, since he's done that to bigger players this season, but this time he is corralled for a big sack.
3-15-NE 15 (1:07) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to R.Stevenson.
The play, just a checkdown to get a few yards, Maye never gets his feet into the throw and throws inaccurately. It's just bad footwork.
1-10-NE 14 (9:22) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 11 for -3 yards (D.Jones).
Morgan Moses just beaten quickly. No chance.
2-13-NE 11 (8:42) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to D.Douglas (T.Hufanga).
Maye and Douglas just miss on a hole shot that is there. Maye is slightly high with the throw, but it's not high if this were, say, Mack Hollins. Maye's high on this ball because he looks at and reacts to the rush as the Broncos stunt. Maye didn't seem to have confidence that Campbell would pick his up, but he did. Onwenu was also a little iffy on his block against Cooper. Maye's uneasy feet were to blame on this near miss. Again, if this is Hollins, this is viewed as a great throw.
3-13-NE 11 (8:36) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to M.Hollins to NE 31 for 20 yards (T.Hufanga).
One of Maye's best throws of the day for a big conversion. He shuffled three times, which made Maye a beat late than would be optimal, but his arm strength makes up for it. Maye drilled this pass.
3-3-NE 38 (6:35) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 38 for 0 yards (Z.Allen).
Coverage sack, even if Hunter Henry comes open very late.
2-5-NE 15 (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to H.Henry.
Could have been caught by Henry, but it's not a good ball by Maye because he is moving to his left as he throws middle. Didn't have his feet under him. Poor footwork.
3-5-NE 15 (1:03) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to NE 18 for 3 yards (P.Surtain; J.Strnad).
Slants to the back side to Douglas or Boutte were both more open than this flat throw to the boundary that had no chance. Poor read.
1-10-NE 44 (:20) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Boutte.
Maye pitter-patters his feet with a great pocket, causing him to get a little bit on his toes, which leads to a bad ball that dies in front of Boutte on a play that was there. Again, less than ideal footwork.
2-15-NE 39 (:15) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep middle to K.Boutte.
For a guy with supposedly a bum shoulder, he makes a pretty damn good throw — and looks very comfortable doing it — that goes 62 yards in the air. He throws it from the NE 31 to the Denver 7-yard line. Had to keep the ball away from the safety, but this is not a bad throw.
SECOND HALF
3-3-DEN 3 (6:14) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at DEN 5 for -2 yards (J.Cooper)
This is just a really bad read by Maye as he has Stefon Diggs (who is not happy after the play) and Mack Hollins open almost immediately, and then Hunter Henry coming open late if the first two were covered, let alone Stevenson open late on the other side as well. Maye had all day on this play. Poor read.
1-10-NE 21 (3:50) T.Munford reported in as eligible. D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to K.Boutte.
Another ball that dies because Maye isn't throwing from a good base, and he gets up on his toes, which leads to inaccuracy for him. Poor footwork.
2-6-NE 38 (2:25) T.Munford reported in as eligible. D.Maye pass deep left to M.Hollins pushed ob at DEN 31 for 31 yards (R.Moss).
The flea flicker. Maye throws a dot from a great base. Not bad for supposedly hurting his shoulder on the previous play.
2-7-DEN 28 (1:01) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to K.Boutte
Update: This is the throw Felger has been railing on all week.
I originally put this on Maye for poor footwork, but there were other issues at play, mainly Kayshon Boutte's route. This is a three-step drop against a zero blitz. When Maye is about to throw, Boutte is making his cut at about the 18-yard line. He should go straight down the line at this point, but he does not (perhaps due to the poor field conditions). He rounds off his route and fades it to inside the 20-yard line. Maye's pass hits at the 19. If Boutte was on the 18, this is an easy reception. Plus, Onwenu is getting pushed back into Maye. Poor route, and not great pass protection.
O'Sullivan added that after this, the Patriots probably realized that throwing quick out-breaking routes was likely not wide in these conditions. One slip by the receiver, one slip of the ball in Maye's hands, and it could go the other way.
3-4-NE 37 (12:20) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 30 for -7 yards (sack split by D.Jones and M.Roach).
This is the pass where Maye holds the ball forever before taking a sack. Austin Hooper was wide open in the middle of the field, and Maye turns down the throw for some reason.
3-11-NE 7 (7:05) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right.
I think this is the hole shot Felger has been railing about all week. First of all, this was sprint right option. Maye could have thrown back to Diggs, who is open, but that's not the primary read. That would be Boutte in the flat, but he's covered, so Maye simply threw the ball away. He might have been under orders to do that if Boutte wasn't open immediately.
___________________
So that's it. Nothing in the film indicated to me that Maye is being affected by anything. Is he not 100 percent? Probably not. What football players are, especially athletic QBs who have been sacked 15 times (4 on Maye) and rushed 24 times in three playoff games against top-five defenses?
People want to use Maye's postseason statistics as proof that there is something physically wrong with him. I would suggest that this is what happens when you aren't facing the 32nd offensive schedule. The Texans (2), Broncos (8), and Chargers (10) are all top 10 against the pass this year in DVOA. All three games have been in tough weather conditions. Maye was also not MVP Maye against the Bills (60.9% completions) and the Buccaneers (51.6%, also poor weather).
Like I said, much ado about nothing. It's football, he's a football player, and he's played 20 games. Not one player feels perfect this time of year.
Here are the positional ratings against the Broncos:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
Maye should get some bonus points for not putting the ball in harm's way, outside the first pass of the game, to help the Patriots advance to the Super Bowl. If he lost a fumble in this game, the Patriots probably lose. Maye mostly did his damage with his legs, but he made two really good throws to Mack Hollins.
Running backs (3.5 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson is a god damn superstar. His blocking alone on Maye's TD, Maye's 28-yard gain, the flea flicker and another pass were the stuff of legends. ... Patriots finally put TreVeyon Henderson in mothballs, and he's not going to get more looks if he turns 20-yard gains into 4-yarders like he did in this game. ... Jack Westover had some rough blocking reps.
Receivers (1 out of 5)
It was Mack Hollins' two catches, and that's it. Stefon Diggs had an iffy route, and the tight ends had some blocking issues.
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Outside of Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses (outside the sack), this was just an OK performance on the offensive line, as they had more issues in pass protection than I thought, and didn't get much push and displacement in the running game outside the first drive of the second half. Will Campbell, Jared Wilson and Mike Onwenu (run game) had their shares of issues, but Wilson had three plus run blocks.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
The Patriots completely dominated the Broncos' vaunted offensive line. They were again just terrific across the board, with just three minus plays (two by K'Lavon Chaisson). Meanwhile, they had 35.5 impactful plays, with Chaisson leading the way with 10. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore again earned their money, but everyone contributed. ... Also loved how Mike Vrabel and the coaches had a little gamesmanship by slowly substituting when the Broncos changed personnel late in the game, especially right before the game-clinching interception by Christian Gonzalez.
Linebackers (3 out of 5)
It's too bad Robert Spillane was injured, because he was on a heater. ... The rest of the group was fine, but obviously Christian Elliss combined with Williams for the play of the game, thanks to Jarrett Stidham's ineptitude. He had a TE wide open, and the back was not running a screen. No idea what Stidham was doing, and why he didn't just turf the ball.
Secondary (3 out of 5)
Jaylinn Hawkins was responsible for the 52-yarder and the touchdown, not Gonzalez. All three cornerbacks were excellent in this game, as was Craig Woodson, who continues to impress.
THREE UP
DE K'Lavon Chaisson: He was all over the field, and is making himself a lot of money this postseason.
DT Milton Williams: Easily could put Barmore or the entire defensive line here, but Williams is just a force of nature at this point.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: He's playing so well right now. Just his pass blocking was invaluable in this game.
THREE DOWN
S Jaylinn Hawkins: Rough start to this game, and it's the kind of performance that will get him targeted in the Super Bowl.
P Bryce Baringer: Just an awful performance that almost cost his team the game.
QB Drake Maye: Once again, he made enough plays (mostly with his legs) to win the game. But he'd better be thanking his defense for the last three games.