Before we get into the analysis of the AFC Championship game from those I lean on in the league, a quick thought from Mike Vrabel on why he has spent so much time and energy trying to build relationships with players, and for them to do the same with each other.
“Well, you go through a lot,” Vrabel said. “You go through a lot and games are tight, they're close. There's good times, there's bad times. There's things that happen through the course of the year that you can't account for off the field. On the field there's injuries. It's just, every week is its own little saga. So, the closer that you can become kind of helps guys get through, helps coaches get through just the rigors of this league, as opposed to just being a bunch of independent contractors.”
WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL
AFC defensive coordinator (team played Denver): “First off, Nix is good. Let’s get that straight. He rarely takes sacks, but isn’t the QB that throws it up for grabs to avoid them (Mike: see Stroud, CJ last weekend). He’s smart, coachable, and Sean has crafted an offense that revolves partly around his legs. That’s a good athlete. But I don’t think they (Denver) change the structure of what they are offensively. They’ll just lean more into Stidham’s strengths. He’s got a good arm, and I would imagine they dial up a handful of shot plays to play into that.
“The book on Stidham is that he struggles with pressure. When you change the picture on him, will he see it fast enough? That's hard for someone who just hasn’t played a lot of meaningful football. If he doesn’t handle it, that’s when you get throws that are a beat late or a hair behind. Against this secondary, that could be a problem with the way they’re closing on the football in the postseason.
AFC defensive coordinator (#2): “Blitz him. Keep blitzing him. Challenge their protection plan, challenge his (Stidham) courage, challenge how quickly he can decipher it. This is what the Patriots defense has become, and it’s worked for them. The natural concern would be that you give the Broncos an explosive play or two. But I wouldn’t be afraid of that. They’ve married the rush with the coverage about as well as you can playing this way.
“What Stidham likes is what Payton likes. He’ll attack between the numbers. He’s accurate on the short stuff. We know they’ll have plenty of bubble screens in this game. Payton uses that as an extension of the run game, and also hopes he can get (Marvin) Mims a crease and turn a four or five-yard gain into a 25-yard gain. Patriots better tackle well (Mike: Pats have been one of the best tackling teams in football since the first two weeks of the season).”
AFC defensive line coach (team played Denver): “This is a solid offensive line, and (Garrett) Bolles is the best of that bunch. He’s terrific. But Nix bailed them out with his mobility. I don’t think they’re the best pass-blocking unit we faced. If (Luke) Wattenberg (center) is back (he began practicing again this week after a stint on the IR), that will help. If he can’t, I would expect Williams, Barmore, #95 (Tonga), and #94 (Durden) to eat, especially getting after Stidham.”
NFC cornerbacks coach (team played Denver): “Last week, especially without (Nico) Collins, it was evident the Pats weren’t worried about what the Texans pass catchers could do to them. Denver is better outside, but I can see Vrabel looking at his cover guys and feeling the exact same way. Sutton’s a good player. Don’t get it twisted. But he’s not someone who can take over a game. Plus, with the two outside corners (Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis), they (Pats) have players that can hold up against his size (6’4”, 216 lbs).”
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
AFC offensive line coach: “The Denver defense isn’t what it was the first two months of the season, but in some ways, they’re built for a quarterback like Maye. Their pass rushers work well with each other. Speed. Quickness. Some power. But they do a nice job of closing down the A and B gaps. It looks like something is there, and when the QB steps into that supposed void, those guys make it disappear. We know Maye likes to step up because he’s got the athleticism for it, but it’s also how he’s wired. He wants to make plays. A good part of this year, Maye’s struck that right balance. The playoffs have been a different story. The fumbles and sacks haven’t been their undoing, but he’s living on the edge. The Broncos are going to hunt that football. Maye needs to rediscover where he was in October, November, and December.
“Lean on the quick game. Maye was good with it against the Texans. He’s almost always good at it from what I’ve seen. There’ll always be chances for shots because that’s what the Broncos coverage invites (a lot of 2-man). But inviting and allowing are two different animals. They don’t allow many (note: they’re #1 against, Pats #1 for).”
AFC offensive line coach: “The Broncos are going to look at (Will) Campbell and say, ‘There’s the weak link.’ McDaniels has to think about giving him as much help as he can, even if that might mean initially taking a tight end or back out of the pass play just to give chip help (Mike note: Stevenson has been effective helping then leaking out and making plays as a check-down option).
“The other thing Denver does very well is game up their pass rushes. There’ll be a lot of stunts and movement. You’ve gotta be buttoned up with your protections and how you handle their stunts, or else one of those speed demons is going to get a clean shot on the quarterback.”
NFC offensive coordinator: “Patriots aren’t built to shove the ball down other teams' throats. The tight ends are just ok in the run game, and that line isn’t loaded with maulers. But they ran it well against Houston, and I could see them leaning even more into that on the road, in the cold, in that environment. Speed gets slower in this weather. Big doesn’t shrink. Use bigger personnel and attack with power running schemes. Lean on ‘em. The right side of the line (Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses) was an asset against the Texans. From what I saw the week before (Chargers), they were as well.”
AFC personnel director: “Denver needs to attack the football. Maye keeps putting it on the ground. The Broncos have to take advantage of that if they want to win. To me, it’s all about their defense taking the ball away and maybe even needing to get a score. That’s where they are at after the Nix injury.”
AFC quarterback coach: “I just love Maye and the way he attacks and his accuracy. The ball placement on the TD to Diggs was elite. There will be a bunch of tight windows on Sunday, and the ball will be slick in the cold. But once he gets adjusted to it, I expect him to do what he’s done all year and keep putting the ball where only his guys can get it. I think he’s inevitable.”
Inevitable? (I asked): “Yeah, inevitable. He is good enough to guarantee he’ll make a handful of big plays/winning plays over the full 60.”
ODDS AND ENDS
AFC East assistant: “Put me down for a big play to Pop (Douglas). I can see him losing (Ja’Quan) McMillian (nickel corner) at least once down the field.”
AFC assistant GM: “Payton will have a plan. This feeds into his ego. It's a huge challenge, and he will have something special cooked up for New England. But Vrabel has been great all year about adjusting as the game has gone along, and they will have their own wrinkles. I think it’s a fascinating matchup between the two brains and coaching staffs.”
NERD NUMBERS
- Since the bye week, the Patriots have the 2nd-highest blitz rate on late downs (3rd and 4th down). In those situations, they are 3rd in EPA per play, 3rd in EPA per pass, tops in explosive play rate (meaning they don’t allow many), 2nd in passing success per attempt, and allow just 3.2 net yards per drop-back (absurdly low). The Broncos have allowed 2 sacks in 41 drop-backs vs. the blitz with Alex Forsythe at center. When Wattenberg is in the middle, there were 2 sacks in 116 drop-backs. They had a 46% success rate with Wattenberg. 39% with Forsythe (6th worst over that time).
- The Broncos are 24th in EPA per drop-back versus cover zero.
- In the two playoff games, the Pats have sent at least one defensive back to rush the passer on 28 plays. No one has had more.
- Since week 17, the Patriots' defense is tops in pressure rate.
- Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos led the league with 96 designed rollouts. The Pats were 29th in success rate against such plays this season.
- Patriots have the 3rd lowest completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more (29%).
- Since week 10, the Broncos running backs have been 15th in yards before contact per rush and dead-last in yards after contact.
- The Pats averaged 3.7 yards per rush through the first 9 weeks of the season. They have averaged 5.0 since.
- After a regular season filled with success against the blitz (42.1% DVOA against the blitz vs 17.7 otherwise) , Maye has been sacked 3 times in 18 drop-backs versus the blitz here in the postseason, recording just six “successful” plays.
- The Broncos were fifth in penalties per game (8.9). The Pats averaged 6.6.
- Quarterbacks making their first start of the season in a playoff game are 1-7 since 1950 (only win: BUF Frank Reich in 1992 vs Oilers). Stidham (4 career starts, all regular season) will have the fewest career starts by any QB prior to starting in a conference championship game.
- Backup quarterbacks making their first start of the season are 3-6 in Payton's career as head coach (wins: Stidham 2023, Taysom Hill 2020, Teddy Bridgewater 2019).
- Maye has had a completion percentage below 60 in each of his two playoff starts. Only had 1 such game in all of regular season (51.6 in Week 10 at TB). Never had consecutive games with a completion percentage below even 65 in the 2025 regular season.
- Maye ranked in the top 5 in sacks taken and QB pressure percentage faced, while the Broncos' defense ranked in the top 2 in both of those metrics. Maye: sacked 47 times, 94 QB hits, 232 pressures, 38.6 pressure pct (NGS). Denver defense: 68 sacks, 149 QB hits, 285 pressures, 40.7 pressure pct (NGS).
THAT ESCALATED QUICKLY
Despite another trip to the postseason, Sean McDermott was deemed expendable by the Buffalo Bills earlier this week. Owner Terry Pegula fired him after nine seasons at the helm. The decision came less than 24 hours after the Bills lost to the top-seeded Broncos in overtime, 33-30.
“If I can take you into that locker room, I feel like we hit the proverbial playoff wall,” Pegula said earlier this week. “13 seconds. Missed field goals. The catch...Where do we go from here?”
During his tenure in western New York, McDermott established himself as the best coach in franchise history outside of Marv Levy. He built a new culture and helped develop Josh Allen into a top-tier quarterback. However, despite eight years with Allen, McDermott reached only two AFC title games and never made the Super Bowl.
“I go back to 5-2-3-2-2-2-6,” Pegula said, referencing the team’s playoff seeds over McDermott’s time. “Great roster, good coaching, no Super Bowl appearance. I can’t emphasize - if I could put you all in that room after the game - it’s like, ‘How do we overcome this?’ It’s been one year after another. I just couldn’t see us doing that with Sean. That’s why I relieved him. It’s not an easy decision, trust me, with that success. But what is success? Is success being in the playoffs seven years in a row with no Super Bowl appearance?”
League insiders responded quickly to McDermott's firing, with questions about a possible succession plan centered on Joe Brady, and speculation regarding other potential candidates like Brian Daboll and Davis Webb. The consensus: the next coach faces heightened expectations, with McDermott's departure framing the hire as a Super Bowl-or-bust move, a strategy that has rarely worked.
"There is definitely risk,” Pegula said on finding a new coach. “We've got to make the best decision, so that's a fact. ... I can tell you this, there's desire. I don't know about pressure right now.”
On Super Bowl or Bust: “We can't say that to someone coming in."
McDermott is far from the perfect coach. Currently, “13 seconds” would be on his football tombstone, as would a few other losses to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But just about every other coach in the AFC suffered a similar fate without having nearly McDermott’s success.
Now McDermott’s out, and GM Brandon Beane got a promotion to President of Football Operations in the same press release. This suggests Beane won a power struggle with McDermott, who reportedly doubted the team’s overall talent. I agree. Of the 58 players Beane has drafted since Allen in 2018, only two have made Pro Bowls (James Cook, Dawson Knox), and beyond Allen and Cook, the roster lacks game-changing talent.
Meanwhile, Beane—nicknamed ‘Big Baller Beane’ early on for trading up to get Allen and dealing a first-round pick for Stefon Diggs—lost some of his pro personnel luster. He took some big free agent swings: Von Miller, Curtis Samuel (3 years, $24 million), and even Joey Bosa (1 year, $12 mil). He missed those. Beane’s added mid-level pieces at high dollars, like WR Joshua Palmer, but that hasn’t worked. This season’s fate, in some ways, was in the hands of Brandin Cooks. Cooks couldn’t see the field for the Saints this year, and his best days were four or five years ago. That reflects a roster with too many holes around a great quarterback. Whose fault is that? Oh, right, the guy who got the promotion.
“Can I do better?” Beane wondered. “Heck yeah.”
As for McDermott, he has told friends he wants to keep coaching. That said, the job market is dwindling. Tennessee might have been a good landing spot (young QB, cap space), but the Titans chose Robert Saleh (more on that in a second). Pittsburgh would make some sense; however, that would be a departure from their hiring history (albeit a brief one). Baltimore seems like a lateral move for both him and the Ravens, swapping out John Harbaugh for McDermott. What’s that leave? Arizona? Vegas? Not exactly stable organizations. He shouldn’t just jump in to stay in, and maybe that’s the best route after all. Spend a year thinking hard on what worked, what didn’t, and how he can evolve. He’s a good coach. He can get better.
SECOND CHANCE SALEH
There wasn’t much that distinguished Robert Saleh’s tenure as the Jets' head coach. He managed just 20 wins in 56 games, at first undermined by Zach Wilson’s incompetence, then undone by the Aaron Rodgers experience (torn Achilles, over-inflated ego) to the point where Saleh got canned five games into the 2024 season. But the well-liked and well-respected defensive mind returned to San Francisco to rehab his image and once again found himself in demand.
Saleh interviewed for a number of head-coaching vacancies before absolutely blowing the Titans' socks off in his second interview (the first was in person). He had detailed plans for just about everything, including QB Cam Ward’s development, the all-important offensive coordinator hire (not yet made), and what to do if that coordinator would become the latest wizkid to get his own team (think McVay, O’Connell, Canales, Coen).
There was also Saleh’s energy and presence. That was something the interviewing party - led by owner Amy Adams Strunk, GM Mike Borgonzi, and a number of lieutenants, including former Patriot front office member Dave Ziegler - was impressed by. It’s hard, however, not to make the comparison to what the organization had before, a similar, energetic presence. What was his name? Oh yeah, that Vrabel cat. Whatever happened to him anyway?
FROM CHEESE CURDS TO STRING BIKINIS
(Got your attention, didn’t I?)
The Dolphins plucked both their new GM and head coach from Green Bay, hiring vice president of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan to fill Chris Grier’s post and days later, adding Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to replace Mike McDaniel as their new field boss.
"We'll build this from the inside out," Sullivan said. "I think you have to make sure that your line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is big, tough, resilient and that there's depth so that you can survive the – it's a violent game, there's going to be injuries – that you can survive injuries."
Hafley added, "There are certain core beliefs that I really do believe in, like running the ball and being really physical up front. So, when they know we're going to run the ball, we're still going to run it well."
The Fins find themselves heading into the offseason nearly $30+ million over the salary cap, though, as we know, they can manipulate that fairly quickly. They also have what some may consider an albatross at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa was benched late in the season.
"Obviously, that's a huge question looming over the organization,” Sullivan said. “I'd be naive to think that everybody doesn't understand that. I have a lot of respect for Tua. He's a good football player. He's accomplished a lot in this league. I think whether it's Tua or anybody else, it's unfair and irresponsible for me to sit up here and talk about anything specific before I've talked to the player himself. Quarterback is the most important position in professional sports. I also think it's the most dependent.”
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
The Rams and Seahawks split their 2 regular-season meetings this year. LA won 21-19 in Week 11 (in LA), and Seattle won 38-37 in Week 16 (in Seattle). The Rams had a +6 turnover differential and a +4 sack differential in those two games.
This is just the 3rd instance in NFL history of teams that split a regular-season series with a combined point margin of 1 or fewer meeting in a conference championship game. Both previous instances ended up being decided by 13+ points.
“We really wouldn’t want it any other way,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said.
The Rams had the NFL’s #1 scoring offense (30.5 PPG), and the Seahawks had the NFL’s #1 scoring defense (17.2 PPG allowed). The last time the #1 scoring offense and #1 scoring defense met in a conference championship game was the 2014 NFC Championship (where Seattle and its #1 defense defeated GB and its #1 offense). Sean McVay will have to be razor sharp not only with the game plan, but also with how he calls it on Sunday in the Pacific Northwest.
“You want to be careful not to chase ghosts,” McVay said. “It is about good execution, good fundamentals. They’re a great team. They’re great in all three phases. We’d like to think when we’re humming and we’re at our best we’re pretty good too. You are aware of those things, but you don’t want to do it at the detriment of allowing guys to be able to go execute and play the way they’re capable of. We’ve been in this situation a couple times. In the ’21 season we played the Niners in the NFC Championship, and then we played Seattle a third time in the covid year. So it’s been similar when we played two divisional teams in the playoffs, but it’s going to be a great opportunity for us.”
The Seahawks' defense is relentless. They were the only team to have 5 players with 40+ pressures in 2025 (per NGS): DeMarcus Lawrence (51), Byron Murphy II (46), Leonard Williams (45), Uchenna Nwosu (44), and Boye Mafe (41). Guess who has had issues against the rush in these playoffs? Matthew Stafford. He has the lowest passer rating under pressure (24.8).
Meanwhile, his counterpart, Sam Darnold, is the 4th QB in NFL history to lead two different teams to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, joining Tom Brady (NE 2019, TB 2020 won Super Bowl), Warren Moon (HST 1993, MIN 1994), and Earl Morrall (BLT 1971, MIA 1972 won Super Bowl). He’s had a damn good year, although nearly half of his interceptions (6 of his 14) have come against the Rams this season. Darnold is also dealing with an oblique injury that has limited him in practice for a second straight week. The Rams are anxious to see if he can handle the heat.
“He knows that we’re coming,” edge risher Jared Verse said. “He knows that he’s going to feel us, and that makes any quarterback cautious, no matter who you are.”
“Really good team, really good defense, really good scheme," Darnold said (he’s 1-3 vs. Rams since Chris Shula became their DC). "Good players. So like always, we're really excited about this opportunity to play these guys. We've just got to have a really good week of practice. For me, I've got to continue to attack all the things that I need to attack, just get ready to play these guys, but also just getting my body right to be ready for Sunday."
