We have no clue how the Dolphins will play today's game. We've seen some eliminated Miami teams be more interested in standing in front of the heaters than actually playing football. We've seen others play their butts off and ruin seeding for the Patriots (thanks FitzMagic). On film, the Dolphins are playing very hard for Mike McDaniel, who may be coaching for his job. The Dolphins beat the Bucs 20-17 last week, and have won 5 of 7 (including one over the Bills). I would expect the Dolphins to continue to play hard, but who really knows? They could make some standouts, like Jaylen Waddle, inactive before the game.
What I do know is the Patriots need to play this game and season out. No, I'm not changing my stance from last week, when I said New England needed to prioritize health over the top seed. The No. 1 seed is likely gone, with the beat-up Chargers making the wise decision to rest Justin Herbert and other key starters. This is about the No. 2 seed, where the Jaguars are breathing down the Patriots' necks.
The Patriots got some good news on Saturday when Will Campbell and Milton Williams were activated from injured reserve. Two very key players who need to get some snaps and contact under their belt to get ready for the playoffs. I expect them to play at least a quarter, if not a half-plus. Neither has played in weeks, and it's going to be difficult to go from nothing to a full load in a playoff game in a week, especially Williams.
How do I think the Patriots will play this one?
I think they'll go full tilt for the first half, and then evaluate the AFC landscape. Fortunately for the Patriots, the Jaguars host the 3-13 Titans at 1 p.m., so they'll know where that stands. Of course, the Broncos host the Chargers at 4:25 p.m. If the Jaguars fall to the Titans (which I don't rule out), then the Patriots can rest a lot of people in the second half.
But if the Jaguars win, and the Broncos are winning, the Patriots can't start resting players — they need to win the game.
New England needs the highest seed possible. With a wide-open AFC, and the Patriots getting about all the breaks this season, it would not be a surprise if the Broncos lost in the divisional round, and AFCCG would be hosted by the No. 2 seed.
The most likely outcome on Sunday is this:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Jaguars
4. Steelers/Ravens
5. Texans
6. Bills
7. Chargers
The most likely divisional matchups are:
6. Bills at 1. Broncos
5. Texans/Steelers/Ravens at 2. Patriots
Would you rather play the Bills than the Chargers in the first round, which would happen if the Patriots lose to the Dolphins? No thanks.
Would you rather the Broncos have to beat the Bills or the Texans/Steelers/Ravens? You want Josh Allen going to Mile High. You would probably have a 50-50 chance of hosting the AFCCG in that scenario.
That only happens if the Patriots are the No. 2 seed.
The Patriots have done a great job this season playing the game the right way, and they've gotten a lot of breaks. It would not sit well if the Patriots deviated from what they've done all season. And I don't think the football gods would like it one bit either.
Play the season out. Full tilt.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 10-6 straight up, 7-9 spread.
Line: Patriots -11.5. O/U: 45.5
Some thoughts on the Dolphins:
- They're playing hard for McDaniel.
- McDaniel's offense is still something else. Not sure what kind of head coach he can be — I think he deserves another season — but he could be my OC anytime. He does so much with the run and screen game, and it great at scheming guys open. It's a lot for a defense, and I expect some coverage busts from the Patriots.
- No Devon Achane is huge, but backs like Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright are no slouches. Just not as much speed.
- QB Quinn Ewers is calm in the pocket, and knows how to execute this offense. He throws the ball funny, like Uncle Rico. It's like a slingshot. Look for batted down passes. McDaniel is doing a lot for him, and he stays in rhythm of the offense.
- He loves TE Greg Dulchich.
- Say hello to old friends CB Jack Jones and RG Cole Strange (who still is not good). But he's better than LG Jonah Savaiinaea, whom the Patriots had interest in drafting at the TreVeyon Henderson pick. He's been awful. LT Patrick Paul is not good either.
- Jaylen Waddle is still awesome, and Malik Washington is a poor man's Tyreek Hill.
- Love the defensive line, especially Kenneth Grant and Zach Zieler. Edges Chop Robinson and Bradley Chubb are no picnics.
- Go after nickel Jason Marshall.
- Patriots actually had their best screen game against the Dolphins the first time around because they are overaggressive, and not that bright.
- Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels were awesome in the first matchup.
- Finish the job strong.
- I don't love this many points, unless the Dolphins just don't want to play in the cold. That's always possible.
Patriots 30, Dolphins 20.
Based on the inactives for Miami, I'm changing my pick.
Patriots 35, Dolphins 17
LAST FOUR GAMES
