It's coming down to this for the Patriots with two weeks to play.
If the Patriots win out, or the Bills drop one of their final two games (vs. Eagles, 4:25 p.m.; vs. Jets, TBA), the Patriots wrap up the AFC East title. It could be over by about 7:30 p.m. on Sunday, given the Patriots take on the hapless Jets and QB Brady Cook.
Being the No. 1 seed in the AFC and securing the lone playoff bye will go down to the final week, after the Broncos beat the Chiefs on Christmas. Denver's final game is hosting the Chargers. All Week 18 games are TBA pending the Week 17 results.
The Chargers and Texans are playing right now, and that game will have a big say in what's at stake, if anything, in the Chargers-Broncos matchup. A Chargers loss would mean the game doesn't mean much for either side. A Chargers win makes Week 18 for the AFC West title, since LA is a game behind (beat Denver in Week 3).
UPDATE: The Chargers fell to the Texans, so Broncos-Chargers doesn't mean much. I'd be willing to bet Justin Herbert sits out the finale, given how beat up he has been. Have to favor the Broncos heavily to hold onto the top seed at this point.
Regardless of the results as far as playoff seeding, the Patriots need to use these final two weeks to prioritize the team's health over the possibility of getting the bye week.
And it seems like they already have with the injury situation this week, with seven heavy contributors ruled out (including Milton Williams not being activated).
The Patriots suffered their first significant injury — as far as the postseason is concerned — when Mack Hollins was placed on injured reserve on Saturday. That means he'll miss, at least, the final two regular-season games and two postseason games. That's a big blow. Hollins has played 68% of the offensive snaps this season, the most by a receiver on the roster. His length has been a big target of Drake Maye in recent weeks, and he's a huge factor in the run game. He's arguably the best blocking receiver or tight end on the roster. The Patriots don't really have anyone like him on the roster, so Josh McDaniels is going to have to do some retrofitting of the offense in the final two weeks.
Hopefully, injured reserve isn't needed for anyone else, but the Patriots need to follow the same cautious plan with other players — like Kayshon Boutte, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, Khyiris Tonga, Jared Wilson, Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson and Williams — as the season wraps up.
Why?
The same thing we've been talking about since before the season started: because this is just the first year of the rebuild, and after a debacle draft class in 2024, the Patriots are thinner than most teams. They are not like some of these other teams, which have young and talented players as backups or on special teams and are waiting for their opportunity to show they're starter material. The Patriots need Boutte, Landry, Spillane, Tonga, Henderson, Campbell, and Williams at close to full strength to do damage in the postseason. I would have said the same about Hollins, but that ship has sailed. I would not say the same about Wilson or a DeMario Douglas. But the Patriots could use a full boat entering the postseason.
The bye would be nice, but not at the expense of any of those starters. Even if the Patriots earn a bye week, they would have a tough time winning a divisional game, even at home, without those guys being as healthy as possible and effective (Landry being the poster child). Plus, the Patriots have been road warriors this season, as they try for an 8-0 road record at MetLife on Sunday. Also, I've seen Maye after a mini-bye (Bengals first half) and a bye week (Bills loss). I think I like Maye and the Patriots playing on a normal schedule.
Bye weeks and home-field advantage are nice, no doubt. But not for this team right now. If you have visions of a Super Bowl appearance, these Patriots need to make sure they are as healthy as possible over all else.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 9-6 straight up, 6-9 spread.
Line: Patriots -13.5. O/U: 41.5.
Yes, the Patriots need to show up. Yes, they can't let the only good thing about the Jets, their special teams, take any kicks back for a touchdown. Yes, they can't turn the ball over, even though that would seem to be impossible against a Jets defense that has forced four turnovers all season (none by interception). And the Jets are -18 in turnover differential this season. They have already placed Justin Fields on IR and are playing rookie Brady Cook at QB over Tyrod Taylor. In three games, Cook has completed 59.8% of his passes (58 of 98) for 527 yards and one touchdown and six interceptions. He also has been sacked 17 times. Here's a partial list of Jets who are on IR at this point;
Justin Fields: Starting Quarterback (Knee)
Garrett Wilson: Starting Wide Receiver (Knee)
Tony Adams: Starting Safety (Groin)
Isaiah Oliver: Starting Cornerback (Knee)
Azareye'h Thomas: Starting Cornerback (Shoulder)
Alijah Vera-Tucker: Starting Left Guard (Triceps)
Andre Cisco: Starting Safety (Shoulder)
Josh Reynolds: Starting Wide Receiver (Hip)
In the NFL, you have to respect every opponent, but this week is pushing that.
Patriots 35, Jets 13.
LAST FIVE WEEKS:
