Teams are asking about Brayan Bello — and why Freddy Peralta is the pitching upgrade that makes sense for the Red Sox

The Red Sox have been active this offseason, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow executing a series of trades aimed at upgrading the roster. Most notably, Boston acquired Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to stabilize the starting rotation, while also adding first baseman Willson Contreras in a separate deal with the Cardinals to inject much-needed power into the middle of the lineup.

Yet despite adding two starters, a question continues to linger around the league: could Boston still look to subtract from its rotation in order to strengthen other areas of the roster—or even the organization as a whole?

According to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Red Sox have “quietly shopped” right-hander Brayan Bello this winter. The report added nuance, noting that “a characterization a person briefed on Boston’s conversations disputed.” Still, that same source acknowledged Bello’s name “often surfaces when teams ask about the Red Sox’s young pitching.”

Bello, 26, is owed $50.5 million over the next four seasons, including a $1 million buyout on a $21 million club option for 2030. That team-friendly contract is a major part of his appeal, particularly for clubs seeking controllable starting pitching without committing long-term free-agent dollars.

On the surface, Bello’s 2025 season was encouraging. He posted a career-best 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings, providing stability in a rotation that often struggled to do so. But teams evaluating him are likely to look beyond ERA—and that’s where the Baseball Savant data becomes critical.

Bello’s Baseball Savant profile paints the picture of a contact-oriented, ground-ball–dependent starter, not a bat-missing arm: he ranks in the 52nd percentile (league average) in Pitching Run Value, 78th percentile in Fastball Run Value, and 84th percentile in Ground-Ball Rate. 

That fastball/ground-ball combination is the foundation of Bello’s success. Once hitters get past the heater, however, the margin shrinks considerably: he ranks in the 13th percentile in Whiff Rate, 16th percentile in Strikeout Rate, 37th percentile in Chase Rate, 25th percentile in xERA at 4.52, and 22nd percentile in xBA at .260. 

In short, Bello doesn’t end at-bats himself. He survives contact, relies on good defense, which has been problematic for the Red Sox over the years, and his sequencing matters. And against elite offenses, the margin for error becomes thin. That profile explains why his expected metrics lag well behind his surface ERA—and why front offices see him more as a mid-rotation stabilizer than a true frontline arm.

That context also explains why Boston would explore Bello’s value now. Breslow has shown a willingness to probe markets aggressively, and precedent supports the approach. When the Baltimore Orioles acquired Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays, they surrendered four top-30 prospects—outfielder Slater de Brun, catcher Caden Bodine, pitcher Michael Forret, and outfielder Austin Overn—along with a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Baz, under control through 2028, was coming off a career year in starts, innings, and strikeouts.

While Bello doesn’t match Baz’s strikeout ceiling, his age, durability, and contract place him firmly in the same tier of valuable trade assets. But that leads to the central point of this discussion: the only way trading Bello makes sense for Boston is if it brings back a true rotation upgrade.

One name that fits that description is Freddy Peralta, a pitcher the Red Sox have been heavily connected to throughout the offseason.

Peralta’s Baseball Savant profile tells a completely different story: he's in the 97th percentile for Pitching Run Value, 83rd percentile for Whiff Rate, 84th percentile for Strikeout Rate, and 85th percentile for xBA at .209. 

Peralta doesn’t