Make no mistake, the Patriots blew leads of 21-0 and 24-7 on Sunday due to a failure in all three phases, especially by a defense that could not get off the field or hold the Bills to even one field goal during five consecutive touchdown drives.
But the offense didn't do its part in the second half. It needed to come up with a few more plays to clinch the game, or win it at the end, and they couldn't do it.
The question is why?
Josh McDaniels is getting a lot of scrutiny, especially in regards to the fact that the Patriots ran the ball just three times in the second half, after rushing 22 times for 177 yards in the first half to build the lead.
That's hard to argue against. I was surprised the Bills showed so many two-high safety shells in the second half, and Drake Maye never checked into a run. I'm not sure Maye ever alerted a play in the second half. Was he under orders to just run the play as called? That would be very surprising. Usually in this system, the QB checks to a run if there's a two-shell look, or at least they do it on occasion.
Also, it's difficult for me to criticize the pass-happy approach in the second half because there were plays to make on film. If the Bills were shutting down the pass, then I'd join many in that criticism. But they weren't. The plays were there to be made, for the most part.
I do want to take issue with Maye not being under center more. The Patriots have averaged being under center 46.9% this season. On Sunday, it was just 31.4% — the lowest rate since the Week 1 loss to the Raiders (22.1%), when Maye looked similarly confused and indecisive. It seems that Maye is better under center. Then again, this is also difficult to quibble with because Maye was only under center 39% in the first half, when the Patriots and Maye were cooking on offense. Still, it was just 16.7% in the second half, when the Patriots were always within one score. That's similar to the Raiders game (12.5%). I'd say the evidence is there that McDaniels quickly abandons the under-center game when the offense is struggling. That should change.
I also think McDaniels defaults to putting the game in the hands of the quarterback. Is he ready for that? Well, McDaniels did that in the Week 5 meeting with the Bills, and Maye delivered by lifting the team to victory. So I can understand McDaniels doing it again on Sunday, but it did not pay off in the second half as Maye had his worst stretch of football in his career. In the first half, I graded Maye as having 5.5 plus plays (one elite throw to Kayshon Boutte to open the game), and just one minus play (the 3rd and 1 errant throw to Mack Hollins). In the second half, Maye had one plus play (the block on TreVeyon Henderson's touchdown), and 10 minus plays — five decisions, two throws/decisions, three throws.
Why did Maye struggle so much in the second half? Did the Bills suddenly change up and confuse Maye? Let's break down those plays via print and video analysis, the pre- and post-snap looks, and see if there are any common threads:
THIRD QUARTER
2-11-NE 25 (10:49) D.Maye pass short right to S.Diggs to NE 29 for 4 yards (M.Milano).
Pre-snap look: Two-deep zone (Diggs motion indicator).
Post-snap look: Two-deep zone.
This was one of the bigger plays of the game, as it turns out. CB Tre'Davious White turns his back to Stefon Diggs to defend Mack Hollins' over route. Hunter Henry is supposed to keep Joey Bosa inside to allow Maye to boot to the right. That doesn't happen, but Diggs is wide open. If this ball is placed correctly, Diggs will wide up near midfield with a first down. Instead, it's just 4 yards to set up third and long. You can see Maye slap his thigh in frustration after the play. He knew he missed one.
Minus play: Accuracy.
3-7-NE 29 (10:06) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 20 for -9 yards (M.Milano).
Pre-snap look: Two (deep) man (Stevenson motion).
Post-snap look: Looks like two-man, but could be Cover 6 (quarter-quarter-half).
I don't see anyone being fooled here. This is the first of three plays where Diggs' route running is questionable on crucial downs. Maye is looking hard at Diggs and is expecting him to break to the sideline with CB Taron Johnson playing inside leverage. Diggs, instead, turns in. By the time that happens, Maye is sacked. Given hindsight, Maye should have come off Diggs quicker and hit Hollins on the crosser against a linebacker. He might have picked up the first down.
Minus play: Decision. Diggs shares the blame for this play as the drive ends.
2-4-NE 41 (2:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to M.Hollins.
Pre-snap look: Two man.
Post-snap look: Two man.
After completions to Stevenson (16) and Henderson (6), the Patriots come out in shotgun with both backs in the backfield. Maye does not check into another play. With two high safeties, you probably want to check this play to a run (if Maye has that ability on this play, I don't know). Only one rushing attempt in the third quarter is very questionable, and this is a play you might point to with that.
Nobody is open on this play, as Maye tries to force a pass to Hollins that is high and behind him, and uncatchable.
Minus play: Decision/Throw.
At the very least, Maye needs to give Hollins a chance on a ball to the inside. I think the best decision would have been for Maye to scramble, as there doesn't appear to be a spy on him
2-10-BUF 43 (1:49) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to H.Henry.
Pre-snap look: 1-high man.
Post-snap look: Cover 6.
After a 16-yard pass to Diggs on third down and a throwaway on first down when no one was open and Mike Onwenu allows a pressure (a second play where you might have wanted a run), Maye throws high to Henry and is almost intercepted.
Minus play: Throw.
There's no reason for this incompletion and near-disaster. Henry is wide open, and he just misses him. Henry probably would have gotten about 6 or 7 yards to set up 3rd and short. Instead, it's 3rd and 10.
3-25-NE 42 (1:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by T.White at BUF 9. T.White to BUF 9 for no gain(M.Hollins).
Pre-snap look: Two-high prevent zone.
Post-snap look: Two-high prevent zone.
Maye ends up throwing up a 50-50 jump ball to Hollins against the smaller White, which I don't have a huge problem with since the safety to that side (39 Cam Lewis) turned toward Demario Douglas in the middle of the field. But the ball needs to be on the inside to Hollins — he runs down the "red line" — and it sails outside to the sideline, likely because of the wind.
But Douglas (he caught a similar ball against the Bucs) is a better option deep. And both Stevenson and Henry are wide open underneath with not many defenders around. A pass to either gets you closer to field-goal range, possibly a conversion, or close enough to think about going for it on fourth down. Instead, the defense is going right back out.
Minus play: Decision.
FOURTH QUARTER
2-5-NE 32 (6:07) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (M.Milano).
Pre-snap look: Two-high zone.
Post-snap look: Cover 6 with a zone exchange (Matt Milano rushes and Joey Bosa drops into coverage).
This is the second play where Diggs runs a questionable route, turning into the
