Breaking down the key sequences as the Patriots blew a 24-7 lead in a 35-31 loss to the Bills, mostly through video analysis, including:
- Not accounting for Jared Allen's legs on 3rd and 3, leading to a TD
- Maye throwing inaccurate and taking a sack
- Maye heaves an interception instead of taking one of three better options that could have led to a field goal
- Embarrassing defense against Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox
- Stefon Diggs' questionable route running
- The disastrous final possession.
3-3-NE 26 (12:44) (Shotgun) J.Allen left tackle pushed ob at NE 6 for 20 yards (C.Gonzalez). R7
2-4-NE 4 (11:34) J.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN
This really isn't that complicated. The Patriots, remarkably, don't account for Allen in the run game as Khyiris Tonga runs up the field, there's no linebacker in the box, and everyone gets washed out. This looks like a team that's never watched the Bills before. Way too easy.
On the touchdown, Marcus Jones and Christian Elliss get a little nosy against the run, allowing Dawson Knox to score relatively easy.
Not a good way to come out after halftime.
Video breakdown:
2-11-NE 25 (10:49) D.Maye pass short right to S.Diggs to NE 29 for 4 yards (M.Milano).
3-7-NE 29 (10:06) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 20 for -9 yards (M.Milano).
Maye leaves a lot of yards - and likely a first down - on the field when he throws behind and low to Stefon Diggs. It's even worse because the corner responsible for the outside, Tre'Davious White, completely has his back turned to Diggs. An accurate throw to the outside goes for another 10, 15 yards.
Vederian Lowe and Mike Onwenu combine to allow this sack, but Maye had Hollins open on a crosser. The problem is he's locked in on Diggs, who turns inside, into the leverage of the cornerback. It's puzzling Diggs did not turn outside, which is what I think Maye was waiting for. This shouldn't have been a sack, and it's on Diggs and Maye.
2-4-NE 41 (2:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to M.Hollins.
3-4-NE 41 (2:34) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs to BUF 43 for 16 yards (Ta.Johnson). P18
1-10-BUF 43 (1:57) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right.
2-10-BUF 43 (1:49) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to H.Henry.
3-10-BUF 43 (1:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-V.Lowe, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 43 - No Play.
3-15-BUF 48 (1:45) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to BUF 37 for 11 yards (Ta.Johnson). PENALTY on NE-M.Onwenu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 48 - No Play.
3-25-NE 42 (1:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by T.White at BUF 9. T.White to BUF 9 for no gain(M.Hollins).
On the first play, the Bills completely plaster the Patriots' receivers. No one is open against 2-man. You'd really like to see channel his inner Josh Allen here and either keep the play alive to give your guys the chance to uncover, or just make a play with your legs.
They make up for it on the next play as Diggs runs away from Taron Johnson.
Really nothing here as Onwenu gives up a lazy pressure and Maye has to throw it away. Would have been nice to see Kayshon Boutte make himself available.
Maye nearly throws an interception targeting Henry, who is wide open. No real explanation, but this looked like a throw from the first half of the Bengals game, where Maye guides the ball.
Then you have the two penalties that put the Patirots in 3rd and 25. Patriots need about 18 yards to get into field goal range, or maybe they think about going for it. Maye has a better option down the middle of the field with Demario Douglas, which we've seen him throw before. Even if he doesn't like that, Stevenson and Henry were WIDE OPEN underneath and probably would have gotten near the Buffalo 40 and field goal range. Instead, Maye throws a punt. The ball moved about 10 yards toward the sideline, causing the interception.
3-7-BUF 12 (:40) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to D.Kincaid to BUF 36 for 24 yards (M.Jones).
3-14-NE 14 (10:10) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Another chance to get off the field, this time to gain field position. And the Patriots respond with a blown coverage. I think this is supposed to be Tampa 2 coverage, with Marte Mapu running down the deep middle of the field. But he doesn't do that. He does nothing. Then you have Jaylinn Hawkins completely out of position outside the numbers. Both of those factors leaves Dalton Kincaid completely uncovered.
Later, the Bills have a holding penalty to negate an Allen rushing touchdown. It's now 3rd and goal from the 14-yard line. Have to get off the field here. Harold Landry and Mike Vrabel both said there was a blown assignment on the pass rush that allowed Allen to easily leave the pocket. It looks like it was Christian Barmore for not working off Landry's pick.
"Yeah, that wasn't coordinated," Vrabel said. "It wasn't coordinated, and it was not executed properly. Coverage wasn't executed properly, and unfortunately when you do that against a good player, they make you pay. Any mistakes that you make get magnified against an excellent quarterback."
Hated the playcall, especially having Jack Gibbens against Dalton Knox in the end zone.
These two plays were embarrassing defense.
2-5-NE 32 (6:07) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (M.Milano).
3-12-NE 25 (5:25) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to H.Henry.
Another play where I don't understand why Diggs turns the way he does (outside this time). I think Maye's looking for him, but expects him to turn inside like Kyle Williams does on the other side of the field (and is open). This should not have been a sack. If Henry is covered (he was), then the ball needs to go to Williams. But it sure would have been nice if Diggs ran a route that made sense. Henderson doesn't hold up in pass pro. Again. But the ball should have been out.
Henry should have caught the ball — your best players need to make big plays to win against good teams — but Maye's throw was not good. The ball should have been on Henry's outside shoulder, not the inside, where the defender was.
1-10-NE 17 (2:43) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to M.Hollins to NE 22 for 5 yards (Ta.Johnson).
2-5-NE 22 (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 22 for 0 yards (G.Rousseau).
Two-Minute Warning
3-5-NE 22 (2:00) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to T.Henderson.
4-5-NE 22 (1:54) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to S.Diggs (J.Bosa)
This starts with a poorly blocked punt return, as three unblocked Bills converge on Marcus Jones.
On first down, Maye has Diggs on the second level, but he doesn't throw it. Instead of just putting it on Hollins on the checkdown, Maye leads him to the sideline, which leads to a tough catch and just 5 yards. It's a miscommunication, not an errant throw. But a throw right on Hollins would lead to a possible first down.
The big issue here is Maye has Stevenson for a check down, likely for a first down, and he keeps the ball. The other issue is Hollins runs a clear-out route, but there's no route in the void underneath. Again, I think this was on Diggs stopping his route and not running a crosser. There really wasn't pressure on this play.
In an earlier video, the Bills showed this exact defense, and veteran LB Shaq Thompson ended up covering Henderson out of the backfield. I think they were looking for that again, but the Bills ended up switching CB Taron Johnson on Henderson. At that point, Maye should have come off Henderson. Boutte was wide open underneath on a crossing route as Maye is under no pressure.
This is just a complete cluster. Patriots get man coverage, and run a man beater as both Henry (left) and Diggs (right) are running routes off rubs. Someone ran the wrong route, and I'm betting it's Diggs again. These routes are usually mirror routes (same route on either side of the field). That means either they both should be low crossers, where they rub off each other, or they fake the cross and go outside (return route). Henry runs a crosser. Diggs stops at one point. They almost run into each other, and Diggs breaks up instead of out. At this point, you need Maye to channel his Allen and make something out of nothing. Would have loved to see him pump fake Bosa and run for the first down.