FOXBOROUGH — Stunned.
That would be one word to describe my reaction to the Patriots taking a 24-7 halftime lead against the Bills, being just 30 minutes from the AFC East championship, and losing 35-31.
What the heck just happened? How could one team look so good on both sides of the ball in one half, and look completely inept in the other? My ultimate answer will have to wait for the review of the game film, but I don't know what else to do other than to go through the TV copy to start the process of breaking down this debacle.
But before I get to that, I thought Hunter Henry pretty much said it all.
"This definitely can be a kind of kick in the butt," Henry said. "We’ve had things go our way and everything go our way the last 10 weeks, so this is definitely a reality check. That’s a good football team. We went toe to toe with them in every aspect, but we have to give them credit. We’ve got to get a lot better from this fast.”
With that, let's go through the plays on defense (five straight TDs allowed), offense (one third down conversion in the second half) and special teams that handed the Patriots their first loss in nearly three months to see if we can draw some conclusions.
DEFENSE
1-10-NE 44 (14:52) J.Cook left guard to NE 33 for 11 yards (C.Woodson)
First play is an easy 11-yard run as Khyiris Tonga and Christian Elliss get washed out, and Jack Gibbens misses the unblocked tackle.
3-3-NE 26 (12:44) (Shotgun) J.Allen left tackle pushed ob at NE 6 for 20 yards (C.Gonzalez).
In what would be the theme of the second half, the Patriots can't get off the field or hold the Bills to a field goal as the designed Allen run is way too easy.
2-4-NE 4 (11:34) J.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills' opening drive ends with a relatively easy touchdown as Marcus Jones falls a little too much for the run fake, and Dawson Knox is wide open. Not a good start.
2-10-BUF 30 (9:09) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to J.Palmer to BUF 46 for 16 yards (C.Woods)
No pass rush allows Allen to wait all day for Palmer to uncover against Charles Woods while Carlton Davis is out with an injury.
1-10-NE 39 (7:12) (Shotgun) J.Cook up the middle to NE 31 for 8 yards (J.Hawkins).
Interior DL (Tonga and Cory Durden) and inside linebackers get owned by the Bills' offensive line for Cook's second big run on this drive.
2-2-NE 31 (6:37) J.Allen pass short right to R.Davis pushed ob at NE 18 for 13 yards (M.Jones) [C.Barmore].
Jones doesn't look right. Davis just kind of runs around him. Jones was in a lot of pain after the game.
3-5-NE 13 (5:04) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to J.Palmer.
PENALTY on NE-C.Woodson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play.
Another opportunity to hold Buffalo to a FG goes to the wayside as Woodson and Woods are flagged for holding on this play. It was pretty ticky-tack.
3-3-NE 3 (3:51) (Shotgun) J.Cook left guard to NE 1 for 2 yards (J.Hawkins).
Buffalo challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.
(Shotgun) J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Another third down ... Tonga can't quite get Cook down, and now the Patriots' lead is down to 3.
3-7-BUF 12 (:40) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to D.Kincaid to BUF 36 for 24 yards (M.Jones)
Another chance to get off the field, this time deep in Buffalo territory. Patriots call some sort of Cover 2 zone, and Kincaid — of all people — is left completely wide open for an easy conversion. I think Charles Woods was supposed to rotate to one of the safety spots, but never did.
4-3-NE 45 (11:22) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (M.Jones). P16
Penalty on NE-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Another chance to get off the field, and one of the most controversial plays of the game. I have no idea how this was ruled a catch, but I tend to agree with the call as Jones made contact with Shakir, who was trying to come back for the ball, before Jones turned around. The catch and flag made a Vrabel challenge moot. Which is why he was asking for the flag to be picked up.
3-14-NE 14 (10:10) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Following a holding call, the Patriots have a chance to hold the Bills to a field goal that would make it a tie game at 24 (Patriots lead right now 24-21). But the Patriots allow Allen to easily get out of the pocket, and he picks apart their soft zone to Knox against Gibbens. Said Harold Landry: "Yeah, it was a miscommunication we had. We were running something, but we all weren’t on the same page up front, and that’s what led to him being able to get out and throw the touchdown pass.”
Bills now lead 28-24 as they have scored TDs on their last four drives.
2-10-BUF 35 (9:42) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to Ty.Johnson to BUF 47 for 12 yards (J.Hawkins).
Patriots now lead 31-28 after Henderson's second touchdown. Both Gibbens and Elliss are washed out on this screen pass. It was too easy.
3-4-NE 47 (8:19) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman. PENALTY on NE-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play
Another chance to get off the field (I sound like a broken record) or get the Bills to fourth down, and this is one of the most controversial plays of the game. This is a play that is officiated both ways in the NFL. I would have been fine if they didn't throw a flag. I've seen the flag thrown on those plays.
Even if the flag isn't thrown, the Bills probably go for it on fourth down, and I'd feel good about Allen in that situation. Still, the Bills are 32 yards from the end zone.
2-1-NE 11 (6:53) J.Cook up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN
After gains of 12 and 9, this is way too easy as Jaylinn Hawkins misses the tackle on Cook as the Bills take the lead back at 35-31. But still plenty of time left.
OFFENSE
1-10-NE 26 (11:23) (Shotgun) T.Munford reported in as eligible. T.Henderson left tackle to NE 25 for -1 yards (L.Ogunjobi)
Garrett Bradbury misses the down block, so the Patriots start behind the sticks on opening drive of the second half.
2-11-NE 25 (10:49) D.Maye pass short right to S.Diggs to NE 29 for 4 yards (M.Milano).
Poor throw by Maye behind Diggs leaves a few yards on the field to make it third and long.
3-7-NE 29 (10:06) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 20 for -9 yards (M.Milano).
Maye wants Diggs and holds the ball to let him uncover, but Vederian Lowe and Mike Onwenu combine to allow the sack. Only real option was for Maye to take Hollins on a crosser short of the sticks. Not a good first drive.
2-4-NE 41 (2:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to M.Hollins.
After a checkdown to Stevenson for a first down, Maye holds the ball under no pressure as the Bills are playing man-to-man, and he throws high and behind Hollins.
2-10-BUF 43 (1:49) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to H.Henry
After converting the lone third down of the second half to Diggs, under no pressure, Maye throws high to Henry and should have been intercepted.
3-10-BUF 43 (1:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-V.Lowe, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 43 - No Play.
3-15-BUF 48 (1:45) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to BUF 37 for 11 yards (Ta.Johnson). PENALTY on NE-M.Onwenu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 48 - No Play.
3-25-NE 42 (1:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by T.White at BUF 9. T.White to BUF 9 for no gain (M.Hollins).
Pretty much a debacle here as Onwenu's hold negates a field goal attempt on fourth down.
In real time, I didn't have a problem with Maye's decision/throw as it was a glorifed punt. But Henry was wide open for a checkdown that would have gotten them into field-goal range and stopped the bleeding. I didn't have a problem with the non-call. It's a 50-50 ball and both guys are jockeying for position. It's just that the wind pushed the ball to the outside and White. Just a football play.
2-5-NE 32 (6:07) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (M.Milano).
Now trailing 35-31, Maye can't take this sack, which is half on Henderson. He has some options (Kyle Williams, Diggs, Douglas on the initial read), but he's indecisive. This was not an exotic look. Straight Cover 2 that they showed presnap. Just an unforced error.
3-12-NE 25 (5:25) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to H.Henry.
This was another pass high and behind, as some of Maye's problematic footwork shows up. But it's definitely catchable, and Henry said it was on him: “I should have caught it. That’s on me, I have to be better. That’s a crucial situation and I have to make that.”
Still, that's a minus throw. It was there to lead him. No reason to throw the ball like that, unless you're gripping it a little tight.
Patriots have to punt.
1-10-NE 17 (2:43) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to M.Hollins to NE 22 for 5 yards (Ta.Johnson).
Final drive. Game on the line. There's a miscommunication between Hollins (he sits) and Maye (he wants Hollins to run a return toward the sideline) and it results in a short gain as the clock runs.
2-5-NE 22 (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 22 for 0 yards (G.Rousseau).
There's not a good angle of this on the TV copy, but Stevenson is open at the sticks. I think the all-22 is going to show people open down the field. Not a good play by Maye.
3-5-NE 22 (2:00) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to T.Henderson.
Both running backs are on the field, along with Hollins, Henry and Boutte (no Diggs or Douglas). Stevenson stays into block. I think the hope was to get Henderson on a linebacker. It turns out to be a cornerback. But Maye misses Boutte open on the crosser at the sticks in the middle of the field. Poor decision.
4-5-NE 22 (1:54) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to S.Diggs (J.Bosa).
Final play of the game is kind of a disaster. Bills are in man-to-man, and the Patriots know it. Something is off with the routes that Henry and Diggs run (and the Bills are paying extra attention to both of them, wisely). Either this is supposed to be twin return routes that end up outside, or double crossing routes to spring one guy. Henry runs a crosser, Diggs runs a stop, and they wind up in the same area. Somebody was wrong on this play.
SPECIAL TEAMS
15:00 3Q A.Borregales kicks 67 yards from NE 35 to BUF -2. R.Davis to NE 44 for 58 yards (C.Woodson)
Did the Patriots fall asleep at halftime? New England allows third big kickoff return (one had a Brenden Schooler facemask penalty tacked on) to give the Bills great field position.
4-16-NE 20 (9:29) B.Baringer punts 62 yards to BUF 18, Center-J.Ashby. K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 30 for 12 yards (M.Mapu)
Baringer kind of outkicks his coverage and Schooler allows Shakir up the sideline to give them decent field position.
M.Prater kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to NE 7. K.Williams ran ob at BUF 46 for 47 yards (C.Lewis).PENALTY on NE-M.Mapu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 29.
Patriots' big kickoff return gets called back on Marte Mapu's holding penalty.
4-12-NE 25 (5:19) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NE-J.Ashby, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play.
Not a big deal, but doesn't help field position.
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So why did the Patriots lose this game?
I'd say most of the blame goes to the defense, which just could not find a way to get off the field. And most of it was self-inflicted mistakes/just not being good enough. I didn't come away thinking that "Josh Allen couldn't be stopped." The Patriots had chance after chance to get off the field, or hold the Bills to field goals instead of touchdowns and nobody could make a play, especially in the pass rush department. I didn't see many blitzes, and they certainly weren't effective. Some bad calls, like the Cover 2 on third down, and the 3rd and 14 touchdown.
Obviously the offense wasn't good enough either outside of Henderson's touchdown run, but it didn't seem overly conservative to me. I thought it came down to Maye not playing that well, and not making any plays with his legs. What was the reason for that? Was it the deteriorating weather and wind? Was it Buffalo throws different looks at him? Did the moment get to him?
I don't have any real answers to that. I just know this team, with the defense going down the drain, needed Maye to make a play, and he couldn't do it.
That added up to a loss, and a tough one to take.
Look, these things happen. Everything the Patriots want, the division and top seed, is still there for them. They weren't going to win out to the Super Bowl, nobody does that. As long as they learn something from this, and apply it going forward, starting with Sunday night in Baltimore (beat the Bengals 24-0 today), then there's more to be gained than lost with this disappointing defeat.