If you've been a football fan for a while, I'm sure you've heard the old saying, "It's not the X's and the O's but the Jimmys and the Joes."
Sure, it's fun to think about the schemes and what adjustments might be made. But when it really comes down to it — especially when you get good teams together like Sunday's tussle between the Bills and Patriots — it's going to be about the players on the field, and certain matchups.
Expect Sunday's rematch to look a lot different than the Patriots' 23-20 victory in Week 5. Not just because the Bills played terribly (three turnovers that led to 10 Patriots points, 11 penalties with eight coming in the first half, Josh Allen trying to do too much), but because there are some critical differences in personnel with each team.
A look at those, starting with some huge recent injuries, before we break down the matchup more and give our game pick.
Bills CB Christian Benford (toe)
Buffalo's best cornerback by far cropped up with the injury on Thursday and didn't practice on Friday. In video from that practice, he appeared to be really limping. If Benford, who returned the pick-six against Joe Burrow last week, can't go or is even limited, I don't think the Bills have a prayer of stopping Drake Maye and the Patriots' passing offense. Tre'Davious White, nickel Taron Johnson and dime Cam Lewis are all decidedly below average. First-round pick Maxwell Hairston is decent, but he hasn't played that much (25 coverage snaps the past two games). Even with Benford at full strength, I'd be fine with the Patriots opening things up and letting Maye pick out matchups. If he's out or gimpy, the green light should be given.
Patriots LB Robert Spillane (foot)
New England's top linebacker seemed in good spirits in the locker room on Friday, but he was also walking with a noticeable limp. I think it would take a lot for Spillane not to answer the bell, but his effectiveness is definitely in question. If Spillane isn't near 100 percent, that would be a huge blow to the Patriots as they try to slow down RB James Cook. He's one of their best run defenders, and, after a slow start, has been a great tackler. Plus, I expect one of the big changes for the Bills against the Patriots will be for Allen to take a lot of checkdowns to Cook. It was an insult that Cook only had one catch in the first matchup. He was open all day underneath but Cowboy Josh Allen kept trying to make huge plays. Spillane already isn't great in coverage. If he's slowed down more, that could be an issue and could perhaps lead to him being taken off the field in passing situations.
Patriots DT Milton Williams
He wasn't dominant in the first matchup (Christian Barmore was) but he did have 2.5 pressures, and is one of the Patriots' best defenders. He'll be missed in the rematch, but at least Khyiris Tonga is back.
Bills LB Matt Milano
Left with an injury in the first matchup after 32 snaps, the Buffalo defense simply can't survive without him. The Bills' linebackers might be thinner than the Patriots. Sean McDermott's scheme has always relied on the middle linebacker (Luke Kuechly) to clean up a lot of things and direct traffic. A full game from Milano is essential to any Bills victory.
Bills S Jordan Poyer
The 36-year-old did not start playing until Week 6. I'm surprised as anyone that he can still play at a high level, but it constantly shows up on film. Poyer may be a step slow, but he's a huge improvement over Taylor Rapp, and Poyer's mind and ability to diagnose are still second to none.
Bills DE Joey Bosa
Was kind of a pain in the first matchup, but he's no longer the same player this time around as he returns from missing last week's game. From NextGenStats: "In Weeks 1-9, he posted a 17.5% pressure rate, the 8th-highest in the NFL during that span (min. 100 pass rushes). After playing through injuries in Weeks 10-13 and missing Week 14 with a hamstring issue, his pressure rate has dropped to 6.3% over that stretch, a mark five percentage points lower than his lowest career season rate (11.5% in 2022)." Good news for Vederian Lowe.
Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez
The first game was only his second game back from injury, so he wasn't playing nearly as well as he is now. That should make a huge difference for the Patriots' secondary, and I expect him to match up with TE Dalton Kincaid on key downs. In Week 5, Kincaid led all Bills receivers with 6 catches for 108 yards, one of two 100+ yard games for Kincaid this season. He caught all 5 of his targets of at least 10 air yards for 91 yards.
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What worries me about the Bills
Josh Allen: Duh. This time around, I'm worried about him watching the film and seeing all the shorter throws he could have made, adjusting and just killing the Patriots with death by a thousand papercuts. Patriots played one of their highest man coverage rates in the first matchup, and they'll be better this time since Gonzalez has a half a season under his belt. Expect the Patriots to have a good plan for Allen's legs, with LB Christian Elliss likely factoring heavily into those plans.
The Bills' heavy personnel looks. Buffalo played 67% of snaps in 11 personnel in the first matchup with three receivers on the field and averaged 5.6 yards per play, but only 2.7 on the ground. In 12 personnel (11.5%), they averaged 6.7 yards per play and 4.3 yards per rush. In 13 personnel (9.8%), the Bills averaged 7.3 yards per play and 4.2 yards per rush. Between their offensive line and three tight ends, the Bills have an advantage against the Patriots' defense and can unlock Cook. That could potentially mean the Patriots never getting off the field. Getting pass-happy out of 11 personnel swings the advantage to the Patriots. The Bills should try to go ground and pound, and pass off it.
Kincaid killed the Patriots the first time around, and I expect the Bills to try that way again. Bills tight ends have averaged 10.3 yards per target this season, the most among all tight end units. They have also averaged 2.6 more yards per target than Bills' wide receivers, the largest differential between tight end and wide receiver production in the league.
McDermott had a plan for Will Campbell and Jared Wilson: The first game was one of the duo's worst games of the season, as the veteran coach seemed to have a plan to attack them. Now it's Vederian Lowe and Wilson in his first game back. Yeah, I'm worried about this, but I also figure McDermott will not allow Maye to roll to his right this game. He killed them out there the first time around. From NGS: Maye attempted a career-high 12 passes on the run, completing 7 of those attempts for 87 yards, his most passing yards on the run in a game in his career. This season, 16.8% of Maye's pass attempts have come on the run, the 10th-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks.
Where the Patriots can take advantage
Patriots' passing vs. the Bills' secondary: We've been over this with the Benford commentary, but I see no way the Bills can match up with the Patriots' receivers outside of Benford. If the Bills don't double Stefon Diggs to provide help for Taron Johnson, Diggs is going to have a monster game again. In Week 5 Diggs had 10 receptions for 146 yards on 12 targets, his most receiving yards in a game since Week 6, 2022. Diggs recorded a catch against 7 different Bills defenders and posted a 54.5% target rate, his highest in a game since at least 2016.
No surprise that the Patriots' best personnel grouping was 11 personnel (56.3% success rate). The Patriots were only able to run out of 22 personnel (62.5% success rate).
The Bills are a turnover factory: Buffalo has committed 12 turnovers in the last five games, and they've lost four of the five games when they've lost the turnover margin (Tampa).
In that same span, the Patriots have just four turnovers. This isn't complicated.
Drake Maye against Bills' two-high zone defense: From NGS — Drake Maye has completed 75.7% of his pass attempts against split-safety coverage this season, the 2nd-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks, while successfully pushing the ball downfield for 7.2 air yards per completion (2nd-most). The Bills have utilized split-safety coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season (49.5%). When in split-safety coverage, Buffalo has allowed just a 61.0% completion percentage (4th-lowest) and 6.2 yards per attempt (7th-fewest).
Top matchups
WR Stefon Diggs vs. CB Taron Johnson: Diggs was the story in the first matchup, and I don't expect that to change.
LG Mike Onwenu vs. DT DaQuan Jones: I thought Jones played awful against the Bengals as the entire Bills' line played with terrible gap discipline. Big Mike needs to win this matchup and open some holes.
LT Vederian Lowe vs. DEs Joey Bosa & AJ Epenesa: Both got the better of Campbell in the first matchup.
TE Hunter Henry vs. SS Cole Bishop: Bishop's a good player but Henry is an expert against zone coverage.
WR Kayshon Boutte vs. CB Maxwell Hairston: This would be Benford's spot, but I don't think he's going to be effective. So it should be a green light for Boutte.
RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. LB Matt Milano: Henderson is playing with more confidence. Milano is a very smart player, but he's been slowed by injury. Time to unlock Henderson in the pass game.
CB Marcus Jones vs. WR Khalil Shakir: Great matchup between two good players.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. TE Dalton Kincaid: The Patriots' top corner has picked up some tight ends on big passing downs, and I'm expecting that on Sunday.
LB Robert Spillane vs. RB James Cook: If the rushing and passing offense for the Bills doesn't go through Cook in this one, then OC Joe Brady should be fired. Boggles my mind that teams have yet to really go after the Patriots' linebackers in coverage.
DE Harold Landry vs. RT Spencer Brown: Brown missed last week but will play. Still, he's not 100 percent. With Dion Dawkins on the other side, the only hope for Patriots pass rush will come against the right side of the Bills' line.
DT Christian Barmore vs. RG O'Cyrus Torrence: Barmore dominated this matchup the first time around. It needs to happen again.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 9-4 straight up, 6-7 spread.
Line: Bills -1.5. O/U: 48.5.
You could make a convincing argument that the only reason the Patriots won the first matchup was that the Bills didn't really take them seriously in Week 5, and played awful ... and the Patriots barely won that game. But the fact remains that the Patriots largely take care of the football, and the Bills do not. Plus, the Patriots are coming off the bye week with needed rest. Plus, I can't overstate how huge the Benford injury is. I really don't know how the Bills are going to stop Maye if the Patriots open things up. This could be an all-timer for him, provided the weather isn't a factor. On the other hand, if the Bills go with multiple tight ends and run the offense through Cook touches, I'm not sure how the Patriots get off the field. This could be a high-scoring barn burner. Two things I can't get past: how much the Bills turn the ball over, and how I know the Patriots' secondary can get stops. I can't say the same for the Bills.
Patriots 30, Bills 24