FOXBOROUGH - If I could pick games for a living, I wouldn't be doing this. I'd have retired long ago after whipping the sports books' asses for years. You wouldn't have to read my writing, see my wrinkled mug on TV, or look for me on socials, because I wouldn't be there.
Sadly, at least for some of you (you know who you are), I am here, there, and everywhere because nobody beats Vegas consistently (or, if you're like me, you don't really try). I approach this job by combining a whole bunch of factors: what I know to be true, what I believe to be true, analytics, gut feeling, and how the people coaching or playing the game handle themselves and their business. And yes, I throw in a dash of emotion because if the game matters to those I cover, it's going to matter to me, too.
Thus, when I predicted the Pats to win eight games in August, I did so after watching how they built the roster, and the coaching staff, and while I felt like there was noticeable improvement - especially on the coaching side - I still believed this rebuild would take at least a half-season to germinate. Boy, was I wrong. The Patriots are 11-2 and a legit Super Bowl contender. There are a million reasons why, but I asked a few players in the locker room on Monday why they thought this was happening.
"We just believe," K'Lavon Chaisson told me. "We believe in who we are and what we're capable of and what we're good at doing. I don't think we try to outdo ourselves and try to excel in areas that are not our game. We take pride in who we are and what we do, and we keep doing those things."
"I would just say, the team identity," Vederian Lowe responded. "It starts with Coach Vrabel. It starts at the top and trickles down. We practice that every single day, straining longer than a guy with the ball. Finishing. Protecting the ball. Everybody plays a part in ball security. It's not just the guys that hold it. It's the guys who are blocking as well. All those things - the details, techniques, fundamentals - all those things, man, that coach Vrabel harps on. I think that's what's gotten us here right now. And you know, we're gonna keep on doing. It works."
"We're so close," Marcus Jones added. "It's a brotherhood. We are playing for each other. We believe in one another. We believe in the coaches. I think it shows."
During the old regime, pre- whatever the hell that was last year, the head coach constantly found