FOXBOROUGH - If I could pick games for a living, I wouldn't be doing this. I'd have retired long ago after whipping the sports books' asses for years. You wouldn't have to read my writing, see my wrinkled mug on TV, or look for me on socials, because I wouldn't be there.
Sadly, at least for some of you (you know who you are), I am here, there, and everywhere because nobody beats Vegas consistently (or, if you're like me, you don't really try). I approach this job by combining a whole bunch of factors: what I know to be true, what I believe to be true, analytics, gut feeling, and how the people coaching or playing the game handle themselves and their business. And yes, I throw in a dash of emotion because if the game matters to those I cover, it's going to matter to me, too.
Thus, when I predicted the Pats to win eight games in August, I did so after watching how they built the roster, and the coaching staff, and while I felt like there was noticeable improvement - especially on the coaching side - I still believed this rebuild would take at least a half-season to germinate. Boy, was I wrong. The Patriots are 11-2 and a legit Super Bowl contender. There are a million reasons why, but I asked a few players in the locker room on Monday why they thought this was happening.
"We just believe," K'Lavon Chaisson told me. "We believe in who we are and what we're capable of and what we're good at doing. I don't think we try to outdo ourselves and try to excel in areas that are not our game. We take pride in who we are and what we do, and we keep doing those things."
"I would just say, the team identity," Vederian Lowe responded. "It starts with Coach Vrabel. It starts at the top and trickles down. We practice that every single day, straining longer than a guy with the ball. Finishing. Protecting the ball. Everybody plays a part in ball security. It's not just the guys that hold it. It's the guys who are blocking as well. All those things - the details, techniques, fundamentals - all those things, man, that coach Vrabel harps on. I think that's what's gotten us here right now. And you know, we're gonna keep on doing. It works."
"We're so close," Marcus Jones added. "It's a brotherhood. We are playing for each other. We believe in one another. We believe in the coaches. I think it shows."
During the old regime, pre- whatever the hell that was last year, the head coach constantly found media-based criticisms of his team, or turned innocuous comments into bulletin board material. It's funny looking back on that now. Rodney Harrison once snarled at a group of reporters, insisting none of us picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. What was amusing was that we had all - and I mean just about everyone, local or national - picked the Patriots to win (I forget what season that was. I'm guessing 2004). Now, using a us-against-them mentality is not an uncommon tactic from coaches. They've been doing that for as long as I've been alive, and I'm sure as long as you have been, too. But it did make me wonder if this version of the Patriots was using this talk about easy schedules and preseason predictions as fuel.
"I can lie to you and say, 'We don't,' but I think everybody has an ear and they hear it," Chaisson said. "I think doubt definitely pushes people to a higher level than what they actually thought they were capable of...and we're still going to continue here outside noise, but to channel in and only focus on us. That's gonna be the biggest thing for sure."
"I think when you have a chip on your shoulder, it always pushes you, it motivates you," Christian Elliss said. "It makes you want to be better, to prove those people wrong."
The Pats have done that so far, but there's always a "yeah, but" lurking around the corner. For this team, when they return from the bye, they'll have a home game against the Bills and a road trip to Baltimore to face the Ravens. Both of those teams have underachieved to this point, but when the season started, the experts (and I) considered both legit Super Bowl contenders. Beat them, and then what will be said?
"I don't think we look at our record and get satisfied," Elliss said. "We are always on to the next game. We always want to be one week better, one day better. And for us, it's just that every week is going to be a week you can lose. A week, you can let it slip. A week where you don't want to take a nap."
As Elliss was finishing his answer, Drake Maye walked by smiling, fixing to say something. And say he did, yelling "Big play Elliss. Don't hit me like that."
The linebacker dropped his head, laughing before powering through his final sentence. A similar moment happened when we spoke with Chaisson and Lowe, with teammates dishing out some good-natured grief to each of our interview subjects. The last two seasons, those moments were few and far between. That's not to say there weren't strong bonds formed between teammates; there was undoubtedly some of that. But this team, this bond, feels different.
"As long as we keep winning, we'll get closer and closer, for sure," laughed Chaisson.