Even when the 2025 Patriots aren't playing, almost everything still comes up Patriots:
- Another contender for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Colts (8-4), fell to the Houston Texans at home on Sunday, basically making it a two-team race between New England (10-2) and Denver (9-2). Indy has lost two straight, and three of four. They look to be fading fast as Daniel Jones plays through a leg fracture that is obviously limiting him.
- Denver's future schedule is 18th in DVOA. New England's is 24th. Broncos play the Packers and Jaguars at home, and KC on the road. Patriots only have the Bills at home and Ravens on the road.
- Bills didn't have both starting tackles against the Steelers on Sunday (along with a host of other starters out), and it showed despite the victory that came mostly via a rejuvenated rushing attack. Bills still might be toast.
- The Ravens got dominated by the Bengals at home on Thanksgiving, and Lamar Jackson doesn't look close to right physically.
- Oh, and Matthew Stafford turned the ball over three times in a loss to the Panthers, helping Drake Maye's MVP candidacy.
It wasn't a perfect weekend for the Patriots, as the Broncos held off the Commanders in overtime. But a lot has gone right. Sometimes, it's just your year.
But the Patriots aren't perfect, we all know this. They are certainly a good football team, but there's been a little bit of smoke and mirrors (and the 32nd DVOA schedule) involved in their success, thanks to an excellent and experienced coaching staff. The Patriots are certainly a contender in a wide-open and flawed AFC (we can probably start saying the same in the NFC after the Rams, Eagles and Lions all fell this week), but to punch their ticket to the AFC title game at a minimum, you'd like to see them use the final five games, starting with Monday night against the Giants, to improve in some areas. Some of those, before we get into our Giants thoughts and prediction:
1. A productive run game.
It's been brutal, to the point they couldn't get a yard when needed against the Bengals. Early on in the season, the problem was the backs, as all the metrics like yards before/after contact, and rush yards over expected were largely porous.
That has changed. Over the last four games, the Patriots rank 25th in yards before contact (.43). They are 15th in yards after contact (3.68). New England has been 7th in the league in rush yards over expected (.66) over the past four games.
It's been the blocking. It's getting worse, not better. And Will Campbell and Jared Wilson being out probably aren't going to help. There's no magic elixir. Josh McDaniels has even tried to scheme up a variety of runs to hit an explosive play or two. Just have to keep improving each week.
The Patriots have to show a decent run game before the end of the season to not only help finish off games better, but also to keep teams from dropping too many in coverage and just keeping two-high safety looks. Drake Maye is one of the best in the league against single high safeties. That's not going to matter if opponents have no fear of the run game.
2. More out of the four-man rushes.
Over the last four games, the Patriots are 14th in pressure rate when sending four rushers (31.9%). Patriots are 5th in the league in pressure rate when rushing five players (52.4%). Patriots are 15th in pressure rate when rushing six (46.7%).
Their four-man rush hasn't been bad — although I will say they've been doing more zone exchanges (lineman drops into coverage for a rushing linebacker or defensive back) of late as a change of pace — but it's going to need to be better. If the Patriots have to resort to sending five players (their most effective pressure package of late) against better offenses in the postseason, they're leave themselves open to getting burned.
3. Red zone/goal-to-go defense.
The Patriots have been the worst red zone and goal-to-go defense in the NFL over the past four weeks. They've certainly done a good job of not letting them get into the red zone (Patriots are 10th in points per drive over the past four weeks), but the chances are good they will see better offenses/quarterbacks/playcallers in the postseason that increase the odds of the opponent penetrating Patriots territory. Considering how they play red zone defense, that could be a death knell for the Patriots (unless Drake Maye can keep matching them, of course).
4. Red zone/goal-to-go offense.
The Patriots have dropped to 16th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage (53.8%) and 21st in goal-to-go (50%) over the past four games. In the postseason, the games are going to come down to which teams can finish drives. This is where some of the teams' weaknesses/inexperience show up, starting with the lack of a good and/or physical run game. The offensive line is way too finesse and doesn't possess enough glasseaters. As the season has gone along, likely due to some fatigue, they've been getting pushed around. The Bengals whupped their butts. You can't scheme your way out of that. There's no hiding a weakness inside the 5-yard line.
Similarly, this is an area where Drake Maye's lack of experience shows up at this point in his career. Everything happens fast inside the 10-yard line, and Maye tends to be a bit of a perfectionist and takes his time on some reads. He's going to have to be more decisive and quicker down here. As with just about everything, Maye makes corrections week to week and I expect him to improve.
What worries me about the Giants
- The unknown: The Giants have had so many changes in recent weeks — Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen getting fired, QB Jaxon Dart coming back from a concussion — that it's impossible to know exactly what the Giants will be bringing to Gillette tonight. We've seen Mike Kafka call plays for Jameis Winston, but not the more mobile Dart. Will Kafka still use a heavy dose of RPOs and QB-designed runs, or will he protect Dart from himself? No one has a clue what interim DC Charlie Bullen is going to do. This is the least amount of information the Patriots will have on an opponent since Week 1 against the Raiders. And we know how that went.
- The threesome of Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Dexter Lawrence: Giants won't have Kayvon Thibodeaux, but they still have three players up front that deserve extra attention and there's only so much you can do. Carter doesn't have the sack numbers (one half sack), but his overall pressure numbers are good and his athletic ability shows up big time on film. Carter has generated 24 quick pressures this season, the 4th-most among edge rushers and tied for 7th-most of any rookie since 2018, even with five games remaining. The Lions paid him a lot of extra attention and left Burns by himself. Burns has converted 31.0% of his pressures to sacks this season, the 4th-highest rate by any player in a season since 2018 (min 30 pressures). Also from NGS: The Patriots have allowed a pressure-to-sack conversion rate of 21.1% this season, the 11th-highest among NFL offenses. However, after aligning on the left edge on 63.4% of his snaps in his last two games, Burns figures to match up with right tackle Morgan Moses. Moses has allowed 3 sacks on 32 pressures (9.4%), along with the 5th-longest time to pressure among right tackles (3.51 seconds, min. 150 pass blocks).
Lawrence is a load at nose tackle and will be hard for Garrett Bradbury and Ben Brown to handle. He gets a lot of push. - Jaxon Dart off schedule: Dart is a lesser and more unpolished version of Drake Maye. Dart is kind of all over the place and a bit of a circus, but he'll make plays with his legs — he's a better pure runner than Maye — and he'll pull out some throws on the run. He'll also throw more to the other team. In the red zone, Dart will just throw the ball up to one-on-one matchups and hope his guys make plays. It will be interesting to see if Kafka is under some edict to protect Dart and limit the designed runs, which are some of their better plays. They could try to make Dart a pocket QB, which would be an advantage for the Patriots.
Where the Patriots can take advantage
- Maye against single-high safety coverage: If the Patriots can make the Giants respect the run and drop a safety into the box (a big if), that will be a big advantage to Maye. According to NextGenStats, he has completed 70.0% of his passes (3rd-highest) and thrown 10 touchdowns (tied for the 5th most) against single-high safeties. The Giants have played a single-high coverage shell on 60.7% of opponent dropbacks, the 6th-highest rate in the NFL. They have allowed 6.7 yards per attempt (6th-fewest) and a 61.7% completion percentage (NFL average: 62.9%) when doing so.
- Playaction/movement: The Giants' linebackers, edges and safeties are extremely aggressive and can easily be manipulated with playaction, wide zones and boots. I think we'll see a lot of that in this game, with Maye hitting players in the flats toward the sidelines. Could also see the Patriots finally hit some designed runs for Maye, as the Giants have allowed 6.2 yards per carry on designed runs this season, over half a yard more than any other team in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). By the way, if the Patriots can't run against the Giants' defense, they can't run against anyone.
- Left cornerback: Paulson Adebo is expected back and he's OK, but should he suffer another setback, backup Korie Black is someone the Patriots should definitely go after.
- Giants' interior offensive line: LT Andrew Thomas is very good, and RT Jermaine Eluemunor is solid. But the interior of LG Jon Runyan, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Greg Van Roten are all poor players and should be susceptible to the Patriots' pass rush games up front.
Top matchups
DEs K'Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry vs. OTs Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor: We know the Patriots' edges have been running on fumes of late, but they're vital to the pass rusher. The Giants have one very good tackle, and a solid one on the other side.
WR WanDale Robinson vs. CB Marcus Jones: Robinson leads the Giants with 102 targets (next is TE Theo Johnson with 60) so he's a key player and a good matchup for Jones.
End Abdul Carter vs. LT Vederian Lowe: Lowe is going to get a lot of help, but you have to fear Carter having his breakout game on national television. He has been getting close.
LB Bobby Okereke vs. QB Drake Maye: The linebacker has been a good player going back to his Colts days, and he's good at reading the QB's eyes. He got a big INT off Mac Jones that way in 2021. I'd keep an eye on him.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 8-4 straight up, 6-6 spread.
Line: Patriots -7.5. O/U: 46.5
The Patriots are the better team, and I expect them to win, but this is a lot of points considering they are playing with a new left side of the line, and center Garrett Bradbury is under the weather (illness). I don't feel comfortable not knowing exactly how the Giants are going to play because we haven't seen Kafka call plays for Dart, and there's a new defensive coordinator. What I do know is the Giants are playing hard. I also worry about the Patriots seeing the bye week finish line and maybe not being incredibly sharp, sort of like the Bengals game. The Patriots win, but I think it's going to be a fight for a while.
Patriots 27, Giants 20.
