Before we get into a very quick preview of the Bengals game that should barely be worth our time as long as the Patriots don't totally implode, a word...
It seems like there's some hand-wringing, maybe a little anger about the fact that the Patriots have and will have one of the easiest schedules in recent NFL history by the time the regular season wraps up.
First of all, this isn't college football. You're not playing Rutgers if you're Ohio State. This is professional football. Just about anyone can beat anyone in a given week (except the Bengals this week).
Secondly, the Patriots have two huge upcoming games against teams that will be desperate to get a win to keep their playoff hopes alive: the Bills at home, and then the Ravens in Baltimore. That game should be flexed to Sunday Night Football since the current game is Dolphins vs. Bengals. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back December games. You don't get much better tests in the AFC before the playoffs. Both teams should be in the playoffs, and the matchups could be playoff game previews. Drake Maye and the Patriots will have the opportunity to answer any and all questions in those games. If there are any boxes left to check, we'll get them there.
And, finally, the schedule does not matter in the NFL when it comes to postseason play, at least in recent history.
Take a look at this chart of the conference finalists over the past five years, and where their schedule ranked in DVOA from our friend Aaron Schatz over at FTN Fantasy:
What did we learn?
In each of the last five seasons, at least one conference finalist had a schedule that was in the bottom third.
In three of the previous five seasons, the final four had three teams in the bottom third of schedules.
In two of the past three years, the NFC championship featured teams that were all in the bottom four in terms of strength of schedule.
Basically, your strength of schedule in the NFL means absolutely nothing when it comes to your prospects in the postseason.
It's not even all that concerning that Schatz pointed out that the Patriots, to this point, are the second weakest 9-2 team since 1978 (as far as DVOA goes back).
I do expect the Patriots to get better by the end of the season with the Bills (9th in DVOA) and Ravens (11th) left on the schedule. The Patriots' DVOA is being held back by the defense (29th) and now special teams (20th). I expect both to improve.
Also, looking at that list, you have three teams that lost a conference championship, two Super Bowl losers, and one Super Bowl champion (2003 Patriots). That company is not bad at all.
So, in short, I'm not worried about the Patriots' schedule or DVOA. What keeps me up at night is the four-man pass rush, the pass defense in the middle of the field, and the lack of a consistent rushing game. Still six-plus games to get right.
SOME WORDS ABOUT THE BENGALS
• As many longtime members will attest, I'm not into wasting my time, and this game is a waste of everyone's time without Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. Even if the Bengals had Chase and not Burrow, that would be something. I would have loved to see the Patriots' defense be challenged with both Chase and Tee Higgins out there. Now, we get nothing. I'm sure Higgins and others will get their share against the Patriots — because everyone has — but it's not going to amount to much in the end.
• Why? Because the Bengals' defense is historically bad. As Schatz put it: "With a 34-12 loss to Pittsburgh that wasn’t quite as bad as it looked (the Steelers had two defensive touchdowns), the Bengals are now the worst defense ever tracked by DVOA. They’re last by a good margin, too." To give more context, the Bengals are nearly twice as bad as the horrendous Cowboys. Recent and future Patriots victims like the Jets, Giants, Titans, Panthers, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens and Saints are all substantially better than the Bengals.
• According to PFF grades, the Bengals have six defensive starters (nickel) with a grade less than 60 (about average, or just below average). They have two players on defense (both linebackers) below 40. On offense, the entire offensive line is at 60 (Ted Karras) or worse. Rookie RG Jalen Rivers has a grade of 30.9.
• The only players I like on the Bengals: WR Higgins, WR Andrei Iosivas, RB Chase Brown, Karras, end Joseph Ossai, CB DJ Turner.
• If the Patriots lose, or this is even a game, it's because they did it to themselves, and the mini-bye week threw off their timing that had been building for 11 weeks. The Patriots' opponent in this game is themselves.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 7-4 straight up, 6-5 spread.
Line: Patriots -7.5. O/U: 49.5
Unless the Patriots vomit on themselves, the Bengals have no chance of winning this game. If the Patriots continue to play the way they have in a very consistent manner, they should have zero problem. Just take care of the ball, and let Drake Maye cook against the worst defense in the league by a wide margin. I will say, if the Patriots can't run the ball in this game either, they have issues.
Patriots 35, Bengals 20.
