Mike Vrabel made some waves this week by sort of — in so many words — scoffing at a couple of questions about whether his Patriots are trying to separate from the franchise's storied past under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
"We're just trying to do what we feel like is best," Vrabel said. "That's all we're trying to do is just try to win games, get good guys, enjoy coming to work, coach the [expletive] out of them, watch them have success and be excited for them. None of that goes in and, ‘Well, they did it this way; we're going to do it the opposite.’ There's a lot of things that are good that you take from people, and there's some things that you come up with on your own that's good, and then there's some ones that are clunkers. When they're clunkers, you own it, change it and fix it."
The last comment was about the individual player introductions that didn't work last weekend due to the timing being off. Really, Chris Gasper's question was about whether or not Vrabel was distancing these Patriots from the past.
"I don't know what the burden is," Vrabel said. "They won eight games in two years. So, none of that matters. Whether it was a Super Bowl or a not very good year. It doesn't matter. So, in this league, if you take a nap, you're going to get beat, and that's just how it is. So, we're not trying to take a nap. We want to try to just play good football, be competitive, take advantage of our opportunities, take care of the football, play complementary, play sound, create some more plays in the kicking game, all these things that we're talking about doing. I don't have enough time to focus on what happened yesterday, let alone what happened seven years ago."
Gasper's question was totally legitimate. Vrabel's answer, especially about the eight wins, was purposefully obtuse — Vrabel knew very well that Gasper wasn't asking about back-to-back four-win seasons — but in the end, he gave an interesting answer.
But I do wonder, heading into Sunday's game against the Falcons, if Vrabel is going to draw on his history as a player for the Patriots, namely in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.
Everyone around here knows the story. Part of the defensive gameplan against the heavily favored Rams was to put a bullseye on multi-talented and future Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, and hit him all over the place. The offense, both with the run and pass, ran through Faulk. Belichick identified that, and his ends, including Vrabel, were instrumental in basically knocking the snot out of Faulk — to go along with being physical with their finesse, dome receivers.
NFL Films video is here.
Could Vrabel be bringing the bullseye gameplan back for Sunday against Falcons running back Bijan Robinson?
It would certainly make a lot of sense (so would being overly physical with their finesse dome receivers and tight ends). Robinson leads the league in 137.4 scrimmage yards per game among running backs (he's 38 yards shy of 1,000 yards), and nearly half are through the pass game. Robinson leads the NFL in missed tackles forced and yards after contact. Like Faulk, the 2023 eighth overall pick is an issue for a defense in all areas on offense, and is used in a variety of ways, although Robinson is faster and can hit top speed quickly after eluding a tackle.
How many issues does Robinson present (and backup Tyler Allgeier is no slouch either)?
"Many, many," Vrabel said. "I think if there's any crack, he's going to test our edge. He's going to test our wall, and he's going to test everything we do about having guys swarming to the football. There have been some good defenses that he's been able to gain yards against. In their three victories, they averaged 186 yards a game on the ground, and it's not like they're manufacturing a lot. Not a lot of those are the quarterback; it's Bijan and Allgeier."
To prepare for Robinson this week, Vrabel made the interesting choice to put three different players in Robinson's No. 7 jersey. Vrabel was asked about that, and may have tipped his hand about the team's approach this week.
"That was just because they got tired of putting the pinnies on," Vrabel said. "Obviously, Bijan is a focal point for what they're going to do. He's an excellent player, fantastic player. I compared him to Marshall Faulk; I got some eyebrows that were raised, and I was like, ‘Well, Google Marshall Faulk tonight and enjoy the highlights.’"
It would make sense for the Patriots to have three different players try to emulate Robinson this week, because the Falcons use him in three different ways, or at least alignments.
Of his total snaps, 77% have come out of the backfield, even a few at fullback, and some offset. Some 13% of Robinson's snaps have been out of the slot, while about 9% have come as a receiver set out wide. So, basically, the Patriots were trying to prepare for three different versions of Robinson.
Certainly a smart approach, but it might not be needed because I have little faith in the Falcons' offense under second year coordinator Zac Robinson, who came with Raheem Morris from the Rams. In their four losses, Robinson has averaged just 17 touches per game. In their three victories, Robinson has averaged nearly 24 touches a game. Robinson should be a 25-touch per game player, but that hasn't been a priority for Robinson to this point.
But the Patriots having a plan for Robinson, like Faulk 24 years ago, would be a smart way to go on Sunday, because he should be the engine for this Falcons offense. Vrabel can see that, even if the Falcons can't.
A look at the matchup, including what worries me about the Falcons, where the Patriots can take advantage, video analysis, top matchups, and my game pick:
What worries me about the Falcons
- Patriots' backs in pass protection: Rhamondre Stevenson was by far the Patriots' best back in pass protection, which is part of the reason why TreVeyon Henderson has seen his snaps so limited (he got one pass pro snap last week). With Stevenson out, Henderson, Terrell Jennings and one of the three backs on the practice squad (likely veteran D'Ernest Johnson) will have to hold up against the defense with the highest blitz percentage in the league. This will be one of the biggest matchups in the game.
- They have talent all over the roster: On offense, LT Jake Matthews, RG Chris Lindstrom, RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London are among the best in the league, and WR Darnell Mooney and TE Kyle Pitts are very talented. On defense, rookie OLBs Jalon Walker and James Pearce were first-round picks, Leonard Floyd can still get after the QB, and S Jessie Bates and CB AJ Terrell are among the best in the league.
- Strength vs. strength: Patriots are the best run defense in the league, and Robinson is among the best RBs in the game. The Patriots with Drake Maye love to throw deep and make explosive plays in the pass game. The Falcons' defense is among the league's best at limiting big plays and deep passes.
- Defensive speed: Myles Garrett is tremendous, and the Browns' defense was the best unit Maye had faced to that point in the season, but they still entered just 14th in pass defensive DVOA. This Falcons pass defense is better (8th in pass DVOA), although their run defense is underwhelming (23rd, Browns were 1st). But the Falcons are dealing with some key injuries that will likely make them vulnerable in the pass game (see below).
- Falcons' 12 personnel and motion: Atlanta is 2nd in frequency of putting two tight ends on the field with the running back. The Patriots' defense is 28th in EPA against 12 personnel. Falcons are No. 3 in motion rate, which could lead to some busts in the Patriots' secondary (they had a handful last week).
Where the Patriots can take advantage
- Coaching: I think this is a decided advantage this week, and we could be going back to the future with one of those typical old school games where the Patriots just outclass the opponent because they were dumb and played bad football. I think former Jets DC Jeff Ulbrich is really good, but he's the only advantage for them. Head coach Raheem Morris routinely makes game management mistakes, and OC Zac Robinson is completely underwhelming with a boring and ineffective pass game. The Falcons' special teams is among the worst in the league.
- Falcons' passing offense stinks on the road: Falcons complete 67% of passes for 7.9 yards per attempt with 4 TDs, 1 INT and a 97.9 rating. On the road, they complete 56% for 5.7, 1 TD, 2 INT and a 67.3 rating. The Falcons' defense is actually better on the road (61.4 passer rating) than at home (101.3). Rush defense is similar.
- No LB Divine Deablo and slot Billy Bowman: The former Raiders linebacker under Josh McDaniels was one of the keys to their blitzes, and did a great job spying Josh Allen in the Falcons' upset of the Bills, but he will miss his second straight game with a broken arm. He was such a key that Ulbrich has divided up his duties among three different players, and starter JD Bertrand is really struggling. Bowman is a key player and continues to be out.
- Patriots could get big, run in the middle: Falcons are fast, but they're pretty small along the offensive line. Would not be surprised to see them go with more power runs and big lineups, if the inexperienced backs can handle that.
- Throw to the middle of the field: The Patriots' offense is third in middle of the field EPA. The Falcons' defense is 28th in that area.
- Michael Penix doesn't throw to the middle of the field: The Falcons' QB, who throws the ball like a javelin, only likes to throw intermediate and outside the numbers - he appears scared to throw in the middle of the field, where the Patriots are among the worst units in the league. Plus, Penix doesn't like to scramble. He's a pretty stationary target.
- Finesse vs. tough: If the Patriots win this game going away, which is very possible, it's because they are by far the tougher team, kick their butts in all three phases, and the Falcons turtle. This Atlanta team is so inconsistent — one week it looks great, the next it looks like one of the worst teams in the league — and that's a sign of a poorly coached and mentally weak team. I have no such concerns about the Patriots.
Top matchups
WR Drake London vs. CB Carlton Davis: The Falcons normally line up with Mooney at LWR and London at RWR, although he will go into the slot. If the Patriots don't travel - they do it more on third downs - then that would mean Gonzalez on Mooney, and Davis on London. I want Gonzalez on London full-time. He's the pass offense.
RB Bijan Robinson vs. Patriots pass defense: I would throw to Robinson all day against Christian Elliss, Jack Gibbens and Marte Mapu, but I don't have faith in Zac Robinson will do that. I also expect guys like K'Lavon Chaisson, Harold Landry and Jahlani Tavai to knock the snot out of Robinson.
TE Kyle Pitts vs. S Craig Woodson: Woodson keeps giving up TDs to tight ends. Pitts has underwhelmed, but he's still big and fast, almost like a WR.
RT Elijah Wilkinson vs. DE Harold Landry: Wilkinson, playing due to injury, is the biggest liability on this very good offensive line. Landry, who has been quiet of late, needs to eat again.
RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. LB JD Bertrand: Falcons' only pass defense weakness is against running back, and this would be a great time for a Henderson breakout game. Might take him over at PrizePicks.
DE Jalon Walker vs. LT Will Campbell: Georgia vs. LSU, but it's strange, I don't think they've faced each other since 2022, when Walker did get a pressure in 14 snaps, but it wasn't against Campbell. Still, SEC rivalries are fun.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 5-3 straight up, 6-2 spread.
Line: Patriots -4.5 (was 5.5). O/U: 45.5
For a while, I was going to take the Falcons to keep it close. But the more I looked at it, I just have little faith that the Falcons have the coaching and toughness to go 60 minutes in this game. Would I be shocked if the Falcons won this game? No, they are certainly good enough. Would I be surprised if the Patriots blow out the Falcons? No. I have no idea which Falcons team will show up. The Patriots are a lot more consistent under Vrabel and Josh McDaniels. I have a lot more faith in them.
Patriots 27, Falcons 17.
