Bedard: Patriots will need a mature Drake Maye to grind out a win over the Browns

Drake Maye has been a star in leading the Patriots to a four-game winning streak that has vaulted the team into first place, and he is now a very legitimate MVP candidate in Week 8. Maye's done it just about every way imaginable. He's played in the structure of the offense, made off-platform big plays, showed deadly accuracy with outstanding ball placement, and has made plays with his legs. He's a baby Josh Allen. And Maye's only 23, and Sunday will be his 20th career NFL start.

Yup, star-making stuff.

But I don't want to see a burgeoning superstar against the Browns and their formidable defense. I want to see a boring-as-hell game manager with pedestrian numbers. If Maye does that, the Patriots will garner the only important number: win No. 6.

NFL teams have to win games in different ways over the course of a season. We know the Patriots stand a good chance of winning if Maye takes care of the football (5-0). We know they're going to win if he plays at an MVP level, like he has for the last month. Can the Patriots grind out a win if Maye is just the "checkdown Charlie" he seems to deride based on his comments after the Titans' game?

"I'm trying to be careful with the football and challenge down the field, not just be check-down Charlie," Maye said.

Well, sometimes NFL games call for exactly that, and Sunday should be one of those games for the Patriots. Third-round rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, all 6 feet of him, is not going to go out there and rip through the Patriots for all four quarters — knowing the Patriots, we'll get at least a quarter if not more — continuing to complete 60% of his passes and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. And rookie RB Quinshon Judkins is not going to get very far against the Patriots' swarming run defense. Basically, the Browns will be lucky to put up double digits on offense, 17 is about the ceiling ... unless Maye plays like Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the Dolphins did last week in the Browns' 31-6 victory. Fumbled kickoff ... touchdown. Pick-six ... touchdown. Interception ... touchdown. 21 points off turnovers. That's the only way the Browns stand a chance on Sunday.

The Browns have a very formidable defense (5th DVOA total defense, 1st vs. run, 14th vs. pass), led by perennial NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett. If there's a scarier sight in the NFL than Garrett in his four-point stance, I'd like to see it. The defensive line is great. The linebackers are fast. The safeties are big, fast and hit hard. The boundary corners are sticky (not crazy about slot corner Myles Haskins). This is the fastest, most aggressive defense I have seen on film in some time. The Browns make the defenses of the Panthers, Bills, Saints and Titans — the teams Maye has conquered during the four-game winning streak — look like JV squads.

"They're playing at a high level, they're with playing a lot of confidence," Mike Vrabel said this week. "It's a lot of speed, a lot of disruption. They don't give you a whole lot of time to make decisions. And then there's enough change-ups in there that you just have to be good. You have to be sound, can't hold on to the ball. Coverage is sticky and the linebackers are fast.

"They're fast, they're disruptive. They put pressure on the quarterback, and they do it through their players and their identity. They understand what they want to do and how they want to play. They want to force you into mistakes if you give up loose plays or guys get on the edge of somebody. You’ve got an elite edge rusher on the outside (Garrett), and if you can't step up it's going to be hard to protect. And then the corners are going to be sticky, the linebackers all can run, safeties are very good tacklers. And that's the thing that I've noticed, is that if a ball breaks, eight yards is a really long run against this team because the safeties are such good tacklers – Grant [Delpit] and Ronnie [Hickman]."

First and foremost, this is a huge week for Maye getting the Patriots out of bad plays, and into better ones. From all accounts, he's done well with that this season. Obviously, he has to take care of the ball, but he just may have to play more conservatively.

Maye may have to put his playmaking instinct to the side this week. I'm guessing Jim Schwartz is going to have a plan for his legs — the linebackers are plenty fast enough to track him down — and if he tries to get too creative in the open field, this is the type of team that can punish an athlete like Maye because they are relentless to the ball (similar to the Patriots, just faster between all 11 players). Could probably use some targeted throwaways in and out of the pocket because the Browns have the best time to pressure number in the league, which Vrabel is well aware of.

"Probably don't want to sit there and wait it out a whole lot this week," he said. "This would probably not be the week to try that. I would probably go one, two, and I would probably look for an exit strategy based on the Browns, their defense and the way they rush. So, you just have to be, I think, conscious, and again, not staring at the rush, but just having an internal clock and knowing that you don't want to leave a clean pocket. And if it looks dirty, then I'm going to trust his judgment of, if somebody's flashing in there, to extend and be smart with the football."

The good news is Maye seems to understand the situation this week, the way he sounded at the podium.

"Just be cognizant of the point of the play, being good in quick game, being good when we are trying to hold it a little longer. Just know the outlets," Maye said. "We talk about outlets, scramble, throwaways and just being smart with the football. They do a good job of going after the football, especially Myles in his career. Just go two hands on it, knowing the outlets and knowing when the play may be over."

Of course, the difference between knowing how you need to play and actually doing it is quite different, and we haven't really seen Maye put in this position yet. But sometimes in the NFL, you have to have the confidence, patience and discipline to do what is required for a victory, put aside your natural playmaking instincts, and just play a boring yet efficient game of football.

Maye's shown the ability to do just about everything to this point, except that. Wouldn't be a surprise if he mastered that on Sunday as well.

A look at the matchup, including what worries me about the Browns, where the Patriots can take advantage, video analysis, top matchups, and my game pick:

What worries me about the Browns

• Not much on offense ... Gabriel is out of his depth being a starter at this point, especially behind an offensive line that has had zero consistency in its lineup, but gets Jack Conklin (a former Vrabel player) back, so the starters are back together, in theory. Judkins is a good back with some special moves and acceleration - I still like TreVeyon Henderson better over the long term - but the Patriots have had zero issues against the run. Browns take a lot of negative plays there. TE David Njoku is the most dangerous weapon and would normally be a problem for the Patriots' thin safety group, but he's questionable. 
• The Browns are good in 12 personnel and 21 personnel. Patriots have been at their worst against those personnel groupings (especially 12, 31st in the league in EPA.
• Myles Garrett. The entire gameplan will revolve around him and limiting his impact. His eurostep is the stuff of nightmares for left tackles.

• The entire defensive line is a problem. DT Maliek Collins is a menace and needs to be doubled himself. First-round pick Mason Graham is a good player, but his film has underwhelmed. Browns get DE Alex Wright back as an upgrade over Isaiah McGuire. They even have depth with Shelby Harris, Mike Hall and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who used to star with the Bucs.
• The linebacker/safety combination coverage in the middle of the field. Basically, the Browns are the opposite of the Patriots there as one of the best defenses against the pass in the middle of the field. Fast and strong, all four of them (LBs Carson Schwesinger and Devin Bush, safeties Grant Delpit 
• Boundary corners Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell are very sticky in coverage. This will be the most press man the Patriots have seen this season (Browns are 7th in man rate). 
• Expect nothing from the tight ends or running backs in the pass game. (See below)

Where the Patriots can take advantage

• The Browns' playaction game is horrible, and the Patriots are great at defending it. They can also play two-high safeties with frequency because the Browns have an issue with that due to no deep passing game.
• I would go after slot cornerback Myles Harden all day. Browns are only 28th against slot receivers, so that may mean a big day for Stef Diggs. But I would like to see Demario Douglas' speed also used against Harden. He won't be able to catch up.
• Kayshon Boutte should have some opportunities against former Jags RCB Tyson Campbell, but he's an upgrade over the traded Greg Newsome.
• Don't need the fancy stuff this week, just a lunchpail attack. Browns are among the league's best against motion, playaction and under center. I expect the 11 personnel trend to continue. Browns are "only" 14th in EPA against, probably because of Harden.
• Browns aren't good in the red zone (27th) ... if you can get there.
• Embrace the ugly on offense, and then pounce on the mistakes.

Top matchups

DE Myles Garrett vs. Will Campbell (and the world). If Garrett has a quiet day, make no mistake, it will be because Campbell got a ton of help, and Josh McDaniels expertly kept changing his pitches and speeds (as he's been doing all season). A few shot plays will come out of max protect.

DT Maliek Collins vs. RG Mike Onwenu. A lot of beef in this matchup. Expect Garrett Bradbury to help a lot.

DT Mason Graham vs. LG Jared Wilson. Rooke steel cage match.

CB Myles Harden vs. WRs Stefon Diggs, Demario Douglas. If the Patriots hit on some plays, it will be in this spot.

CB Tyson Campbell vs. WR Kayshon Boutte. Expect this to be very physical and for Boutte to get him one or two times.

QB Drake Maye vs. Himself. We've discussed this.

LG Joel Bitonio vs. DT Milton Williams. Two of the game's best.

DE K'Lavon Chaisson vs. LT Cam Robinson. This should be a KC TKO.

DE Harold Landry vs. RT Jack Conklin. Former teammates going at it.

BEDARD'S GAME PICK

Season: 4-3 straight up, 5-2 spread.
Line: Patriots -7, 40.5 o/u

Maybe I was a week early in expecting a possible shutout for the Patriots' defense — didn't work out in Tennessee — but that's the type of performance I am expecting because the Browns are not good on offense, and Gabriel should not be playing. Way too early for him. I'm expecting another defensive touchdown in this one as well.

And I expect Maye to play a very mature game, although I am pretty worried about him running around. This is a much, much different speed than anything he's seen to this point and it's going to take him a while to adjust. McDaniels might need to take the air out of the ball for a while, buy Maye some time.

Going with the same prediction as last week.

Patriots 24, Browns 6