Giardi: It's still way too early, but Maye is making a compelling case for MVP

Drake Maye for MVP?

Drake Maye for MVP.

That's not something I expected to be writing here on October 20th. In fact, I'm a little reluctant to give something so grand weight after just seven weeks. But while some media types throw it out willy-nilly, with no context, I decided, "What the hell?" and dove in headfirst.

Some important information to consider as Maye and the Patriots go forward. This award almost always goes to a quarterback. The last time it didn't was 2012 (Adrian Peterson). Before that, the year was 2006 (LaDainian Tomlinson). Twenty-two of the previous 25 MVPs are signal callers.

Over the last decade, that shiny hardware has also rewarded team success. All 10 winners were quarterbacking a one or a two-seed in their respective conference. No exceptions. And since moving to a 17-game season, the MVP and squad have won at least 13 games. If you dabble with the odds makers, the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire league.

Finally, gone are the days when the simple counting stats that I still love and appreciate - yards passing, TDs, completion percentage - are the be-all, end-all. In recent years, the more nuanced and nerdy numbers have taken center stage. Things like EPA (expected points added), CPOE (completion percentage over expected), and QBR (which factors in a number of categories, including situational football) have influenced voters. So, where does that leave Maye? I'm glad you asked.

Heading into Monday night's doubleheader (enough with this already, Roger), here are Maye's rankings:

• 3rd in EPA per play
• 3rd in passer rating
• 3rd in yards per attempt
• 2nd in completion percentage
• 2nd in CPOE
• 5th in QBR
• 6th in success rate
• 1st in vibes (okay, I made that one up, but seriously, who has better vibes in the entire league right now than this quarterback?)

His performance since the start of week two has been as good, if not better than every single passer in the league, and now that he's got a better - if not perfect - grasp of the 'know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em' aspect of the game, the mistakes have been fewer and far between, while the successes - as that healthy list above indicates - are not only a regular occurrence but expected.

"He's turning me into a true believer," one AFC front office exec texted me late Sunday night. "The game is slowing down for him. You can see it on a play-by-play basis. That usually doesn't happen to you get at least 30-35 starts under your belt, and for some guys, it's a hell of a lot more."

Sam Darnold would be a prime example of this. He didn't blossom until last season, 50+ starts in (over four different teams). Darnold's on his 5th team now, and has carried over his good play from Minnesota to Seattle. But it took that long for the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. Maye was also the third pick, but just 16 months ago.

"I don't know what they're doing internally with him, but you can tell they've had a plan," the exec texted. "And the more Drake's proven he can handle what's in front of him, the more they're giving him. 

"Obviously, (Mike) Vrabel's going to get credit for turning that program around, but what the OC (Josh McDaniels) has done with the QB is outstanding. He's got him walking that fine line between passer/ playmaker/MENSA candidate. Usually, you can have two of the three. Right now, he's playing with all of 'em."`

That plan, hatched from the very beginning of the winter (post-hirings) was to attack Maye's inconsistent footwork, get him to keep his head up while protecting the ball as he navigated the pocket, and, as has been well-documented by both those on the beat and the team itself (check out any of the Vrabel mic'd up segments), turn the 23-year-old into a true leader, not just with actions but words. There have been moments where the plan has gone awry - the fumble versus the Steelers, bad eyes and feet early in Buffalo - but largely, it has been a rousing success through October 20th.

"You don't have to watch them for too long on tape, or in the times I've been there in person, to see that team responds to him," an AFC scout told me. "That tells me not only do they respect the player, but they respect the man. That's not an easy thing to do for a young QB."

The schedule the Pats have played hasn't been Murderer's Row, but they've got a borderline top-10 defensive DVOA opponent this weekend when the Browns come into Gillette. That will be the best test Maye and this offense has faced since the Steelers, and no one is confusing this Pittsburgh defense with the Steel Curtains of the past.

"He's always had that play-making ability, but the way he's placing the ball this year is an eye-opener," said an assistant coach whose team has already played the Patriots this season. "He's doing the kind of stuff Patrick (Mahomes), Josh (Allen), and Lamar (Jackson) do on a weekly basis, with the kind of stress he's putting on the defense. What do you take away? Because you can't take it all."

There's a lot of football left to be played. Can Maye remain playing at this otherworldly level? He's barely got a full season of starts under his belt, so it's bound to go sideways at some point, even if it's just for a half. But since week three, that hasn't happened, which is why I'm here writing a column I didn't expect and thinking the oddsmakers (DraftKings for my purposes today) may be a little lower on the kid QB than they should be.

• Patrick Mahomes: +150
• Baker Mayfield: +320
• Josh Allen: +400
• Maye: +950
• Matthew Stafford: +1000
• Jared Goff: +2000
• Daniel Jones: +2200
• Jordan Love: +2800
• Dak Prescott: +3000
• Lamar Jackson: +3500
• Justin Herbert: +4000
• Jalen Hurts: +4000
• Darnold: +6000